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The Lowry-Dragic vs. Lin Tracking Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by JCDenton, Nov 1, 2012.

  1. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    Agreed. DeRozan & Bargnani & Ed Davis were all very confortable with Jose. They were used to playing with him. He was a calming presence for that young team & he runs an offense really well. But that doesn't change the fact that the coaches felt that they had a better chance at winning with Jose than they did with Lowry. And they were kind of right because Jose has been balling & the Raptors were playing pretty well.

    Think about it like this. Dwyane Casey is a defensive minded coach & Lowry is a way better defender than Jose & yet Dwayne went with Jose as the starter over Kyrle.

    I do agree with you Lowry is the far better player though & I didn't agree with what Dwayne Casey was thinking & I do think he will play well as a starter.
     
  2. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    Players want more of a calming presence than a better player

    no wonder that team has always been shet.
     
  3. RedEyesKirby

    RedEyesKirby Member

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    Wow people nowadays still use PER? After all that Hollinger's talk about PER and how pretty much no advanced stat GM uses it as a measure to recruit, you'd think by now we should stop using it to measure anything worth of a player. But I guess ESPN will continue to brainwash all.
     
  4. sew

    sew Member

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    Isn't PER based on per-minute performance?
     
  5. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    Coaches too wanted that.

    The Raptors have been **** because of Brian Collangelo who happens to be a big Lowry fan.

    ;)
     
  6. conquistador#11

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    posted this yesterday//
    when playing against teams over an 500 record(26 teams so far) guess who is in the 10th spot(taking out rondo due to the casualty suffered)...hi, it's not your friends lowry and dragic. those 2 are lower.
    http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/playerstats/13/2/eff/13-1
    The pg position is not a problem**. Wish we had another pure pg, who knows how to play the point to relieve lin when he does struggle, which he will at age 24.

    **that's coming from someone who loved ham and gogi that he naively believed they could play together at the same time and be glorious.
     
  7. torocan

    torocan Member

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    It is.

    And PER is heavily weighted towards scoring vs other aspects of the game.

    So yes, if you're a chucker, even an inefficient chucker, your PER goes up.

    In the words of Dave Berri from his book Wages of Wins...

    In other words, even if you're a terrible shooter (31%), your PER will rise if you shoot a lot.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    So, who in the history of the league shot less than 35% and had a good PER?
     
  9. torocan

    torocan Member

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    You wouldn't see 35% and a good PER because teams typically wouldn't allow them to shoot that much.

    A better question is who has scoring that is not representative of their PER.

    Here's a few on both ends of the spectrum.

    League Average PER = 13.89, TS = 53.2%

    Hasheem Thabeet - 62.4 TS% - 10.54 PER
    Royal Ivey - 59.5 TS% - 9.60 PER
    Steve Novak - 61.1 TS% - 9.67 PER

    Maurice Harkless - 45.1 TS% - 21.48 PER
    Kevin Love - 45.8 TS% - 18.87 PER
    Josh Smith - 47.5 TS% - 17.06 PER

    Just some stuff to chew on...
     
  10. torocan

    torocan Member

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  11. chief

    chief Member

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    still think we should have kept Dragic, =(
     
  12. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I don't know who Harkless is, but his numbers don't look right. Love and Smith are both above average players, despite poor scoring efficiency this year. I think their PER ratings for this season are fair.

    And there's a lot that should go into a player rating besides scoring efficiency. So why should one be "representative" of the other?

    Something I'd be interested in: correlation between TS%, USG%, and PER, and then correlation between TS%, USG%, and WP.
     
  13. WNBA

    WNBA Member

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    Well, when Lin was playing next to nobody, he got Linsanity and the wins.

    weird.
     
  14. SuperStar

    SuperStar Member

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    Poor Tyson Chandler, being considered a nobody.
     
  15. choujie

    choujie Member

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    PER rewards high volume more than percentage. You only need to make 33% on 2 pointers and 25% on 3 pointers to make it even.
     
  16. torocan

    torocan Member

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    Oh, and just for kicks I did a search through Basketball Reference and came up with the following list...

    http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

    8 Players, including Moses Malone in 1992/93 who shot .310 but had a PER of 18.7.

    Take a look at Maurice Stokes... it's amazing they even let him touch the ball.

    Maurice Stokes (Rochester Royals), 1956-57, 72 games, 434/1249 FGA, .347 FG%, 20.0 PER, 2761 minutes played :grin:
     
  17. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Guys from the 50s don't count. Everyone shot poorly back then, and PER rates player relative to the rest of the league.

    Abdul-Aziz played less than 200 minutes that year, so I wouldn't put much stock in that either. His high PER that year has more to do with his absurdly high rebound-rate (I bet he'd rate quite well by Wins Produced as well, just for that reason) and the fact that he offsetted his poor FG% by getting to the FT line a lot.

    As for Moses Malone, similar argument. Barely played that season, but his favorable PER has more to do with his rebounding and FT rate than him taking a bunch of low-percentage shots at his team's expense.

    The reason I raised this question is that this particular critique by Berri seems to me like a red herring. Yes, you generally don't want a player who shoots 31% from the floor to be taking more shots. But it so extremely rare to find player who shoots that poorly actually taking a lot of shots that I don't see why it matters. For the vast, vast majority of players who actually get minutes on the floor, it does a decent enough job despite the inherent limitations in the boxscore.
     
    #597 durvasa, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2013
  18. chenglug

    chenglug Member

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    I have to guess most nba players can shoot at 33 percent. Per is stupid
     
  19. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    I didn't know dragic and lowry were high volume scorers? PER is just a way to take all the parts box score and put them into a single number. Lin is wildly inconsistent. He has some good games some bad games and his PER is a reflection of that.
     
  20. Just Ballin

    Just Ballin Member

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    [​IMG]
    Defense stats from Synergy.. Jeremy Lin's in white, Goran Dragic's in grey. (It won't let me scroll further down which is why it cuts off at "off screen". Lin was better at "off screen" defense by 20%).

    Summary
    -Overall defensive rank: Lin 156 and Dragic 232.
    -Shows Lin is a better defender against in just about every situation except defending 3pt shots
    -Conclusion: Lin clearly the better defender

    [​IMG]
    Offense stats from Synergy.. Jeremy Lin's in white, Goran Dragic's in grey.

    Summary
    -Overall offensive rank: Lin 298 and Dragic 170.
    -Shooting percentages are pretty close, Dragic has a better percentage on iso, off the screen and cutting
    -Lin is the better P&R handler however he gets to run it almost 10% less than Dragic. (53 times less this season).
    -Lin is worse than Dragic for spot up shooting, but has taken a spot up shot 77 more times than Dragic.
    -Lin also has a higher TO percentage in almost all situations compared to Dragic. I think some of it is due to rockets spacing and Asik's lack of hands. His TO's have been improving so this'll change.
    -Conclusion: Lin is not playing to his strengths (P&R) and needs to take care of his TO. He is just looking to fit into the system that's built outside of him. Pretty much has been said a million times. Lin isn't going to excel in the Rockets system so you can't expect great numbers from him. If they were winning then it shouldn't matter but you know the score...
     

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