Yeah that is very optimistic. The reality I think will likely be 15 & 7 . But he has to be a better shooter for this to happen.
You can say this about any player. The expectations on Lin are just too much. People expect him to put up prime Chris Paul's numbers?? I don't think even CP3 could average 18 and 9 next to Harden. If he did, Harden's points would probably decrease too because his usage would plummet.
Yes it makes sense and we do not disagree with one another. I will just point out that if he gets 16 shots a night he better get at least 18 points. The Spurs game is over used, it is just too small a sample size. Further he has had a number of old games.. Outliers should be dismissed. I think 18/8 is less than 50/50 but possible, if he is aggressive and improves his 3 point shooting to the 36-38%.... If he does that he will get shots. Remember we will be playing at a high pace.
Easily? No not easily or likely... You think he is losing 4 assists a night because of his teammates? No, that is extreme. As far as scoring 20 points, he hasn't showed he can consistently do that, not even close. I think 18/8 is possible if Lin's three pointer improves, the Rockets roster improves and Lin becomes more aggressive. These three things are not even "easily" done.
Playing next to Harden will ultimately be a benefit to Lin. Harden's offensive effectiveness and ability to penetrate will open things up for the Lin. Harden does not shot 30 times a game and is not one dimensional on offense. Right now the parts of the Rockets do not fit the system the team intends to run, but changes are coming, and the Rockets will get a post player that finishes inside which will help Lin as much as anyone on the team.
I agree, and i'm not ripping on iconoclastic or any other optimistic fan. Lin averaging 18/9 is NEVER going to happen on the Rockets. In order for Lin or any PG to average 18/9, they'll need the ball in their hands, and that's not happening playing next to a soon-to-be elite, ball dominant SG. He's got a very different role here. I believe in the kid and I know he'll work his a.ss off to compliment his teammates. Personally, on this team, I'd be ECSTATIC if Lin averaged 14/7. He'd still be worth more than his contract too.
The losses, to put a good spin on things, were a blessing in disguise. It taught the team and McHale a valuable lesson and I expect that we'll never have a stretch as bad as the last losing streak. Harden learned a valuable lesson as well. So did the team. I think we'll keep things running well for the rest of the season, barring the occasional let down and get into the playoffs with momentum. Rebounding from the 4 and 5 positions, which allows us to play our game, help defense which we've been poor at, but could be great at, and a more "Lin-centric" or a free flowing offense even allowing mid range jumpers versus iso ball are going to be the keys here on out. Go Rockets!
15 and 7, assuming it comes with at least 35% three point shooting, would be quite acceptable. Lin has a very multi-faceted game, he contributes with strong rebounding and steals and he's a better defender than people give him credit for. 15 and 7 isn't a star point guard, but it's a good starter. Add in an all-star PF and I think Lin/Harden/Parsons/star PF/Asik is a title contending team. If Lin can improve his jumper.
The offense stagnated because the team did not hit their 3's, which allowed teams to pack the paint, which essentially made the offensive efficiency come to a halt. The lack of ball movement and ISO's were a result of the paint being packed. McHale didn't learn anything, the 3's started Falling again and the paint opened up. The Rockets ran the same plays during the losing streak.
I keep seeing 20/8, 18/8, 15/7 as optimistic, reasonable, or "worth contract but not a star player" expectations for Lin. All I can say is that you guys need perspective. Since the 2000-2001 season, there has been 178 Guards (Point Guards and Shooting Guards) to play at least 2000 minutes in one NBA season. Of those 178, here's how many have averaged those numbers in one season: 20/8: Six (Marbury, DWill, CP3, Baron Davis, Westbrook, Payton) 18/8: Nine (aforementioned six + Nash, Kidd, Billups) 15/7: Twenty-Two (aforementioned nine + Steve Francis, John Wall, D. Wade, Derrick Rose, Sam Cassell, Allen Iverson, etc.) Lin is currently sitting at 12/6 with 1525 mins played. I guess that's why some people think 15/7 is a reasonable expectation for Lin. It's may seem hard to disagree with that since he just needs another 3/1 per game to reach that. However, that's not how averages work. In order for Lin to reach 15/7 at this point in the season where he has already played in 46 games, Lin needs to average the following in the remaining 36 games of the season: 18.8 points per game 8.2 assists per game In other words, that ain't happening - not with Harden active on the team. Though it's more possible to do with the assists than the points. What I cannot accept as fact is that 15/7 is "not all-star worthy". Everyone mentioned in the 15/7 is not only an all-star, some of sure-fire HOFs.
I ran the numbers actually, using data from ESPN and 82games. Asik was 10th amongst centers in FG% at the time of calculations so I looked at the 5th best (Robin Lopez) to maybe guess at a possible range of improvement. The biggest difference is the eFG% of Close shots (.490 v .671), Asik actually has better Dunk eFG% than Lopez. Using Lin’s assist spread, of his 9.2 AstPer48, ~35.2% of them are Close Assist, so about 3.237 AstPer48. Divided by Asik’s eFG%, multiplied by Lopez’s eFG%, gets you 4.432, a difference of slightly more than 1 per 48min, or a little less than 1 per 36min (-0.81 Ast). What the math comes out to is that if Omer figures out how to finish at around Lopez level, he'll have one more basket that's assisted, and one more assist credited to whomever's feeding him, say either Lin or Harden. This does not factor in the assists 'lost' from Asik's fumbling the ball. Should Asik improve his handles and the facilitators better figure out how/where to give him the ball, I would think that Lin would average at least 1 more assist per game, if not more likely two. Unless Asik plays more with Harden and then the assists would go to him.
?? have you been watching? the last game we had front court presence. Our 3s were not fallin, in the 1st quarter. But we keep getting buckets. Sorry I have not seen this of play before with the rockets. Also Lin is initiating the offense.
I got to say - Asik was playing like CRAP until Smith came in and BEASTed the paint. It woke Asik up, and got his motor moving.
I don't think anybody is saying Lin is going to get his average for this season up to 15/7. What's being said is that it's a possibility that he improves to such a level next season.
THANK YOU Roxs...I am sick of people simultaneously slamming Lin for "not living up to his contract" and making unrealistic demands on him Chris Paul, without question the best PG in the league and a max money player is averaging 16.6 and 9.7 right now...we have people here asking Lin to put up max-money stats and also slamming him for failing to live up to his contract...its just ridiculous I think the problem with Lin is that because of his popularity all the media hype around him...he "feels" like a max money player and is scrutinized as one...he's not...and the numbers he's putting up are close to what you'd expect for that contract...you can point out other PG's who are doing more and getting less...but those guys will get paid when its their time...people like to point out other team's pg's that get theirs on lin...well most of those guys make a lot more money than he does...so they should beat him
I do agree with this fan that Jeremy tries to get his teammates involved like a good point guard/floor general should. But really? Harden is a nobody?
Well this is the 2nd time he's done something like that in his short career... Here's a brilliant post by torocan:
#1 No one thinks Lin will average 15/7 or 18/8 or 20/10 this season. #2 No one thinks he will average 15/7 or 18/8 or 20/10 for his career. #3 As I have stated before a single season of 20/10 for Lin is not happening. I think 18/8 for a career best is ambitious but possible if everything breaks in Lin's favor. We play a fast pace and the personnel on the team will improve. #4 15/7 are not Hall of Fame numbers, but I do not think he will average that for his career any way.
