Rockets Interested In a Trade for Marcin Gortat + Paul Millsap Their Top Target?

I'd take Millsap as a player but West is one of the great locker room presences / leaders in the game today, so that at least evens it out. I guess it makes sense to offer West a 2 year deal, keeping an option to target Love in two years. But I don't think the Pacers will be easy to outbid, he's too important. I expect him to get a big long deal with the Pacers, like 4 years at 11-12 mil per.

 

Your recollection of yesterday seems to be a bit cloudy. He did not "jilt" us. He signed a larger contract than what the Rockets offered. And it wouldn't have mattered anyway because Orlando was going to match no matter what, just as they ended up doing. So even if Gortat had actually signed the Rockets offer, he would still be sitting in Phoenix right now.

 

But if you watched the JVG video talking about Morey from 1 year ago he said Morey isn't an "advanced stats only" guy.

All the people drooling over Millsap only look at advanced stats and not what's behind the stats. I've done that and posted about it in the various Millsap/trade threads.

No material improved in stats in 3 seasons. PER 19.8 in 2010, PER 20.3 in 2012. Per game scoring down from 17.3 to 14.9 because he's playing 4 minutes less per game. His per 36 min pts was 18.2 and is 17.6 now. I talked about his boards elsewhere.

Midrange fg% drop from high 40% to low 30%

Career 30/103 (29%) 3P shooter. Was 10/17 (59%) from 3P the first 10 games 2/12 (17%) in the last 30 games.

Whatever you think about Morey he isn't dumb enough to waste any assets on Millsap aka Boozer 2.0 a guy who puts up sexy numbers, but doesn't put you over the top.

 

I don't have insider knowledge, so I probably shouldn't presume to know exactly what stats they look at. But here's a sampling of various player rating metrics that are publicly available, and Millsap's ranking relative to other 278 NBA players (using 400 minutes minimum as a cutoff).

STAT       RANK    PERCENTILE  Description
PER         27      90.3%      Player Efficiency Rating
WP/48       59      78.8%      Wins Produced per 48 minutes
WS/48       33      88.1%      Win shares per 48 minutes
OWS/48      28      89.9%      Offensive win shares per 48 minutes
DWS/48      125     55.0%      Defensive win shares per 48 minutes
ASPM        33      88.1%      Adjusted statistical plus/minus
O-ASPM      25      91.0%      Offensive adjusted statistical plus/minus
D-ASPM      85      69.4%      Defensive adjusted statistical plus/minus
xRAPM       7       97.5%      Regularized adjusted plus/minus (RAPM) with boxscore-based prior
O-xRAPM     28      89.9%      Offensive RAPM with boxscore-based prior
D-xRAPM     17      93.9%      Defensive RAPM with boxscore-based prior
RAPM        12      95.7%      "Vanilla" RAPM, no prior, weighted average with prior 3 seasons
O-RAPM      30      89.2%      "Vanilla" Offensvie RAPM, no prior, weighted average with prior 
                               3 seasons
D-RAPM      30      89.2%      "Vanilla" Defensive RAPM, no prior, weighted average with prior 
                               3 seasons
IPV         8       97.1%      Individual Player Value, based on RAPM, aging curves,
                               statistical +/-, etc.

Now, some of these stats are based on very similar models. If Millsap ranks really well on stats that are based on different models and using different sets of data as input, than that's a good indication that it reflects his actual level of play and not some statistical fluke. So we should consider that as well. Rankings based on IPV and xRAPM will tend to be similar, for example, because they both use a combination of statistical +/- and +/- lineup data. PER correlates highly with the box-score based offensive metrics, so those rankings will also be similar. DWS/48 is heavily influenced by overall team defensive efficiency, so it won't correlate too highly with any of the other more player-specific metrics. The following table summarizes how closely the various stats (just based on this season) track eachother, which I thought might be interesting.

Spoiler

 

You just compared Paul Millsap to Boozer. You just just die. Paul Millsap is what he is and he is a great player somewhat in Bosh's category but prolly better in my eyes. He's not the guy who is going to go beyond what he can do but what he can do is impressive. He usally get's like 20 ppg and around 8.5 rebd a game and also his defence has got way better over the years. His mid range is a great plus to aswell as his 3 point shot that has been showing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbZINvgay1s

Pretty athletic for a big man

 

Millsap definitely passes the "eye test"

he has a high motor... gets steals, blocks when he can (doesn't go searching for them)

and on offense he has a back to the basket game, can face up, drive, and finish with contact.


morey we need this guy

 

You obviously didn't read my post because the things you tout I have already debunked. Millsap has never averaged 20 ppg(most 17.3). Even his per 36 min high is only 18.2 pts. His midrange fg% is down to 32% this year. His 3P shooting hasn't shown since the first two weeks of Nov.

Yes his rebounding numbers are better than what we have @ PF, but they could be a little misleading because he gets a few of his rebounds off his own missed shots @ the basket.

He's a better shot blocker than Patterson and Morris, but that isn't saying much. He's 3rd on the Jazz for total blocks and blocks per game behind Favors and Jefferson.

 

0% chance Rockets get Milsap before the trade deadline if Patterson doesn't start playing much better. Perhaps that is why he was put back into the starting lineup? Since he will for sure be included in a trade and also Douglas because the Jazz need guards. Why would the Jazz help the Rockets make the playoffs in place of them?

 

Thank you for posting these stats, not that it does any good. You can't reason with an unreasonable person. Many people flatly reject math, and science, and reason. And not just when it comes to evaluating basketball players!

Guys, what is especially interesting about this somewhat inane "Paul Millsap isn't anything special" position that so many of you are blindly taking is that this mentality, that is, where a person completely ignores advanced metrics (i.e., math, and science, and reason, for all intents and purposes), is the exact reason why Millsap is the highly undervalued asset that he is in the first place! And, as we should all know by now, Daryl Morey is a Moneyball GM, which means that he looks to exploit inefficiencies. And if the rest of the league doesn't think that Paul Millsap is worth, say, four years, $40 mil, that's an inefficiency, because these advanced metrics indicate that he clearly IS worth at least that much money.

In other words, it is starting to look like Millsap may wind up with even less than four years, $40 mil this summer, because he is such a grossly undervalued asset. He is a major bargain at something like four years, $32 mil.

In my opinion, Morey would like to a) trade some expendable assets for Gortat before the February trade deadline and b) sign Millsap outright this summer. I think he wants both dudes, and I think he has positioned himself to get both dudes. While many Rockets fans will respond with "I want Kevin Love!" or "I want LaMarcus Aldridge!" or whatever other unobtainable big name/big money guy, the Rockets will, by adding Gortat and Millsap to the core (and without giving up any current rotation guys, other than maybe Marcus Morris and Patrick Patterson, who you've replaced in the rotation with Gortat and Millsap, anyway, meaning neither dude would even touch the floor!), proceed to win at a 60-win pace, and should ultimately finish in the top 3-4 in the West in 2013-14. And, by late November 2013, all of the naysayers will have been completely converted, and they will start whining about something else.

 

Patterson has already sniffed out the possible trade and has been underperforming. Coincidence?

 

We didn't even offer him a contract because he was not willing to talk to us.
He signed a deal with Dallas, which Orlando matched
He went with Cuban

 

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....ferson-or-paul-millsap-before-trade-deadline/

The Utah Jazz will have some interesting decisions to make this summer. And they involve whether or not to keep the team’s two best players.

Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are both legitimate starting frontcourt players, each with a unique skill set that would have tremendous value for a multitude of NBA teams. There are questions about fit within a given system, as well as a fit within a team’s current salary cap situation. But both of these guys can play, and would by highly valued on the free agent market.

This, in a nutshell, is the issue facing the Jazz.

Both Jefferson and Millsap will be unrestricted free agents after this season. With the Jazz having young big men on the roster it believes can develop into legitimate assets of their own, it’s unlikely that they would be willing to spend to keep both players in Utah beyond this season.

From Marc Stein of ESPN.com:

There will be plenty of teams lined up to talk trade for both of these players.

Whether or not Utah finds a deal it likes, however, will depend on its internal definition of “front-line point guard,” of which there simply aren’t very many in the league at all, let alone ones teams are willing to part with.

Jefferson is at the end of a deal paying him $15 million this season, while Millsap will earn roughly half that in the final year of his contract. Dollars won’t be the only factor in deciding which player to keep, though, as the offers that will come in will likely be tied to a specific player, rather than being an either/or proposition.

If the Jazz are dead set on moving one of these two before they both hit free agency, they’ll likely be open to dealing either one equally — the player that’s valued the most by other teams will be the one sent out of town, if in fact that’s what the long-term plan in Utah dictates.

 

I'd rather have Al Jeff I think. At least he can slide over to the 5 when we need more offensive production.

I'll never forget that Chuck Hayes said he was the hardest 4 in the league to guard.

 

does stats don't seem to measure athletic ability something the team sorely lacks

 

millsap's personality will mesh with the team.

 

We have nothing the Jazz want, those thinking they would like Patterson, think again. They are set at PF with Kanter & Favors so if we deal for him prepare to lose Parsons unless they are high on D-Mo / Jones and see something in Douglas / Aldrich.

 

If our hunt for another all-star like DH/CP3/Love/LMA should fail, could two 2nd tier players be just as effective, and still put us in future contention (if we do not trade Lin/Harden/Asik)?

among the more realistic 2013 FA options..

Z-Bo $15.2 M
Jefferson $14 M
J Smith $12.4 M
Milsap $8.5 M
Gortat $6.8 M
-----------------
Delfino $3 M
Pat $3 M
Aldrich $2.5 M
TD $2 M
Morris $2 M
White $1.7 M
Parsons/TJones/DMo are untouchable, cuz I say so

Max cap is at $58 M. $45.8 M on the books for 2013-14.

So... moving Aldrich, TD, Pat, Morris, and Delfino, clears ~$22 M...enough room for

Iggy/Milsap,
JSmith/Milsap,
Z-bo/Gortat,
Jefferson/Gortat

or move another ~$4M for JSmith/Jefferson
or move another ~$5M for JSmith/ZBo

If we keep Delfino, we can still afford

Jsmith/Gortat

(Or something similar to that)..... Does a lineup of Lin/Harden/Asik/+ 2 of any above even compete for a ring in a couple of years?

 

If the rummors of Howard to Atlanta in the offseason are true, it means Horford can be had for the right price as he is a free agent. He would be an ideal four man for this team.He can defend but he is also a 16-10 player with good %.


Lin
Harden
Parsons
Horford
Asik

 

A guest on one of Bill Simmons' podcasts said Morey was a huge Danny Granger guy. He had a source with the Pacers who claimed Morey would phone in everyday about him. So much that the joke among the Pacers front office was if a day passed where Morey didn't enquire about Granger something must have happened to him.

 

Al Horford is not a free agent this summer. Where do some of you guys get your information?