Vickers and Leach are top tier FB's. That's the difference. I predicted we'd be cutting Smith next season this time last year, not so sure that'll be the case anymore. He's too damn good.
I honestly think that they are probably going to cut Clutts, unless they let Casey go. Kubiak/Dennison seem to have made it clear, they don't care for having a true Fullback and would like to keep the TE pretending to be fullback as a option for pass plays. But if they can't retain him, they will retain Clutts because by now he should know the system at least.
Quin's a value at 2.2M, but it's probably not that far from what they should offer him this offseason. I think he walks.
Bring back Dreesen. He's developed after a year in Denver. Send OD and Walter up there for a year. They'll come back better than before.
Drop off the books after this year: Spoiler Shaun Cody - 3m Connor Barwin - 917,500 Antoine Caldwell - 816,062 Glover Quin - 1,430,562 James Casey - 661,250 Brice McCain - 1,333,437 Jesse Nading - 615,000 Alan Ball - 700,000 Rashad Butler - 1,925,000 Tim Dobbins - 700,000 Justin Forsett - 700,000 Keyaron Fox - 825,000 Andrew Gardner - 540,000 Shayne Graham - 640,000 Ryan Harris - 700,000 Bradie James - 890,000 Donnie Jones - 890,000 Stanford Routt - 154,688 Barrett Ruud - 540,000 Qunitin Demps - 700,000 That's roughly 18.5m if we let them walk. Players we could cut (first amount is their cap hit, second is the total remaining guaranteed amount): Spoiler Antonio Smith - 9.8m, guaranteed 2.5m Owen Daniels - 5.75m, guaranteed 1.5m Kevin Walter - 4.5m, nothing guaranteed Shiloh Keo - 555k, nothing guaranteed Derek Newton - 570k, 30k guaranteed Cody White - 450k, nothing guaranteed Tyler Clutts - 555k, nothing guaranteed There are others we could cut, these are just a few of them. This could save us about 18m. Also, the "dead weight" coming off the books: Spoiler Dan Orlovsky - 800k Lawrence Vickers - 250k Jacoby Jones - 1m Dorin Dickerson - 27k DeMeco Ryans - 9m Shiloh Keo - 1.44m Eric Winston - 2m Steve Slaton - 166k Matt Leinart - 1m Cheta Ozougwu - 34k Sherrick McManis - 96k Moran Norris - 65k Trindon Holliday - 169k That gives us an additional 16m in cap space. That leaves us 52.5m+any increase in the cap to cover increases in salary, sign rookies, resign any of our free agents, and sign any other free agents. All we know is what the increases in salary will be (I won't include players on the list above, like Antonio Smith): Spoiler Foster - 250k Schaub - 2.85m Manning - 500k Myers - 1m W. Smith - 1m Cushing - 1.04m Brown - 1.4m Watt - 510k A.J. - 5.5m Kareem - 295k Reed - 213k Sharpton - 90k Weeks - 90k Mitchell - 90k G. Graham - 90k B. Harris - 150k Tate - 85k McClain - 90k Braman - 90k Yates - 90k Alexander - 90k Hunter - 90k Martin - 90k Carmichael - 165k Ben Jones - 90k Mercilus - 347k Bullock - 90k Jean - 165k Brooks - 110k Posey - 120k Crick - 90k Collins - 15k Pleasant - 15k White - 212k So approximately 17.1m in salary increases, assuming we keep all of these players. Unless I'm missing something, I see that we have about 35m to use, if we make the moves I listed above (yes, I realize there could be other moves, or moves different from mine). It's hard to imagine cutting Antonio Smith, but could we better use that 7.3m we would get by cutting him? So with that in mind, if we can spend 35m, and let's say half of it is to replace lost FA's, that leaves us with 17.5m. 8m (I'm just picking a number, I'm not sure about this) is used on rookies, leaving 9.5m. Keep in mind that 9.5m already includes dead money from cuts listed above. If we have 9.5m, what could/should we do with it? Some FA's, even the ones we probably can't afford: Spoiler Danny Amendola Dwayne Bowe Alan Branch Jason Jones Henry Melton Dallas Clark Ryan Clady Jake Long Victor Cruz (can't see him leaving NY) Donald Driver Glenn Dorsey Dwight Freeney Greg Jennings Dustin Keller LaRon Landry Randy Moss Ed Reed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Sam Shields Steve Smith Brian Urlacher Mike Wallace Wes Welker Donnie Avery Deion Branch Plaxico Burress Nate Clements Joshua Cribbs Chris Crocker Braylon Edwards Ted Ginn Jr. Adam-Pacman Jones Donte Stallworth Brandon Stokley
as I stated in the optimism thread, if we were to fill our FA holes at replacement level cost and only re-sign Quin at market value ($~4MM) we are looking at $90.5MM on the books going into the 2013 season. projected Salary Cap is at $121MM. thats roughly $31MM in wiggle room. Letting players like Barwin, Cody and Caldwell walk isn't insurmountable. Even if you approach the offseason conservatively in anticipation of re-signing Cush, you still have room to sign at least one significant FA off the street. Henry Melton at NT tops my personal list.
He was definitely gone with the way Posey was starting to play towards the end of the season, but with him going down we are going to likely have to get another WR. I think Walter is gone either way though. He just hasn't been producing anything out there.
does he have any money tied into bonuses? I am showing $3.5MM on the books next season. obviously any bonus money would reduce the $3.5MM savings if/when we cut him.
How does everyone feel about dropping a little coin on the following linemen? RT - Sebastian Vollmer (personal favorite, very athletic RT, injury problems tho) RT - Eric Winston (don't laugh) RG - Andy Levitre (been a part of the Bills running resurgance) RG - Kory Lichtensteiger (comes from shannahan's system opening holes for morris)
We need to get a bruising fullback..... Get some attitude back on the offensive side of the ball.... The Casey experiment hasn't failed, but isn't necessarily succeeding either.... Maybe draft a FB in the mid rounds from Bama or Auburn.... We need a bull in front of Foster.... and an ass-kicker behind Schaub..... I think everyone should come back at a reasonable price of course...
I'm not too worried about fullback. Casey doesn't hit as hard as Leach but its not like he misses assignments, he always puts a hit on someone. Not to mention this system doesn't use a fullback a lot. THe running struggles had nothing to do with FB
If we can resign Casey and Quin...i think i would be happy...heck...I would be open to trading Daniels for picks(if possible) and cutting Smith...Then we can hand the reigns of the TE jobs to Casey and Graham...draft a good TE...get a FB with one of the extra picks...combine picks to trade up in the draft...and get solid picks in the 1-4th rounds...really would like if the Texans make our defense on par with the Niners or Seattle...and then work on getting FA wideouts on the cheap...i think our line has a chance to gel by this year...mind you these guys were rookies...they had to learn..im sure they will get better this offseason...
I'm as down as everyone else with the way the team tumbled into a ditch to end the year, but can't agree with all the people here suggesting purge and restock. It's a pipedream to think you can be up against the cap, drop 8-10 starters and 15+ backups, upgrade the positions, and come away with a better cap situation. Free agency is too pricey, you'd be forced to settle for retreads like Bradie James at every spot. Even with a couple extra arrows in our quiver, you can't realistically expect to come away with 6+ day 1 quality starters from the draft. Surprised at how many people are saying we should replace Jones/Newton on the line. This isn't the NBA. NFL lines have to be kept together over time - you can't retool a side and expect them to gel the first month. Jones was outstanding as a rookie. Newton took time to develop, but he was starting to come together before the knee injury. If you're in a hurry to lose him, I hope you take a second to remember how atrocious we were in the 3 games without him. Give them another year (Brooks included). Replacing them just means you want to go through another year of inconsistent line production. Add depth - absolutely (depth doubles as replacement starters down the line). How I look at it right now: Free Agents LB Mister Alexander - never made the leap from ST to competent full time defensive player CB Stanford Routt CB Brice McCain CB Alan Ball - I like them well enough, but they're sticking with Harris. They'd have to accept small dollars to stay. FB/TE James Casey - jack of all trades, master of none. I like him, but he honestly doesn't give us serious impact. Need a better blocker at his position(s) S Quintin Demps - Useful, but nothing special. Blow deep coverage on a couple big plays. RB Justin Forsett - I'd be cautious about letting him go. He took heat from the knee-jerk peanut gallery, but he had a very nice season in reserve. Three games with less than 4ypc, six games with over 5ypc. We have to question what we have with Tate at this point, and this league is unkind to RB lifespans. K Shayne Graham P Donnie Jones - kickers and punters come and go. Sign them if cheap, replace them if not. G Antoine Caldwell - terrible play even if healthy T Rashad Butler - can't stay healthy T Ryan Harris T Andrew Gardner (R) - both looked atrocious when given time in December/January LB Keyaron Fox LB Tim Dobbins LB Bradie James LB Barrett Ruud - Here's a dilemma. None of these guys is an impressive ILB, but we don't know when we'll have the "real" Cushing back (don't forget his sophmore year slump bouncing back from injury). Sharpton is under contract, but he may be cut if he can't stay on the field. We need depth at this spot, and have to make good decisions about who to replace and who to keep. LB Jesse Nading LB Connor Barwin - Mercilus time. Braman is another possible internal "promotion" as a backup. DT Shaun Cody - We could stand a major upgrade at NT. The worry I have is that Phillips and Smith will elect to downgrade and make Mitchell the new starter and draft a late gamble to be the backup. S Glover Quin - there's no way to replace him adequately if he commands big money elsewhere, which he could. My nightmare is Phillips thinking that Keo is ready to take over the spot. Possible/Plausible Cap Casualties Kevin Walter - I don't think even Posey's injury could save him at this point. I like him well enough, but only at 3rd or 4th string money. Antonio Smith - We all expect him to get cut, and you can't restructure final year deals. But he would be tough to replace. Best front man aside from Watt this year. Crick showed me no signs that he could step in and hold his own. We can't lose Smith and Cody and seriously expect to improve the pass rush unless we draft a monster to replace one and land a major bargain to replace the other. I would rather try and find a way to cut and retain Smith with a smaller multi-year deal. I've seen talk about cutting or trading OD, but that's asking for it. Casey's not good enough for full time TE duties, Graham wasn't able to fill Dreesen's shoes, and we only have so many draft picks to spend. OD was the only consistent weapon in the passing game behind Johnson. We need a second TE, not a search for a new starter. We all went to get better, but it's easier to do so by focusing on the obvious gaps we have than to put ourselves in a position where we have to replace 8-10 starters on top of replenishing depth behind them. The major priorities, as I see them: ILB (need at least two) NT (preferably a starter) DE (if Smith cut) S (if Quin leaves) TE (finding a block first Dreesen type) OL (depth) With a Mario Williams compensation pick at the end of the third round, we can plausibly hope to mine 4-5 immediate contributors from the draft if Smith has a good April.
