Didn't Lebron say this past summer that he could see himself returning to Cleavland some day and finishing out his career there? Maybe it's not so far fetched. Kyrie Irving is the real deal. The chance for Lebron to play with him might be very tempting... especially once Lebron realizes that post 2014 DWade might not be all that good.
The Rockets used their 5yr contract on Harden. This rule is going to make it hard for the Heat to retain both LeBron and Bosh. A team like the Cavs will have a squad of seasoned young players who will be vastly better than any team the Heat will try to put together through 2014 free agency.
What does this have to do with anything? That he picks division winners better? This is the guy who stuck to his guns that the Lakers pulled out of the Pau Gasol to Houston deal, despite everybody else reporting that Stern vetoed the deal.