Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

I don't know about the wisdom in acquiring Millsap at this stage. Too many variables there for me to process, and I don't have much of a grasp on the new CBA and what makes the most sense strategically for the Rockets.

But I think he's a hell of a player, and very much underrated in general. He seems like the sort of player Morey covets, so don't count it out.

 

We'd be getting a nice to only trade Morris TD and a future pick or 2 and to get Milsap and Watson, don't forget we also have patrick beverly now. Btw we can still trade future picks, say a 2015 top 120 protected pick or something like that, it doesn't have to be this years draft.

 

Lol top 20 not 120

 

For the most part TD doesn't play back-up PG, he plays off-ball with Harden playing point because the Offense runs best that way.

He's basically Derek Fisher next to Kobe all those years. Dribble the ball up, pass to Kobe(Harden), and spot up for 3.

 

I know what TD does for us. I'm talking about Utah's need for a PG and TD isn't really a PG. So his value to Utah is pretty much nill.

 

Looks like Portland and Mempis are open to trades maybe Morey can get somthing done Z-Bo or Aldridge ?

 

http://www.hoopsworld.com/report-grizzlies-exploring-randolph-trade/

 

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-blazers-are-open-to-trades/

 

I guarantee that Les is not going to want to wait until 2014. What is he, 70 years? At some point you get tired of waiting.

 

Are you name-calling now? I'm the ignorant one because I've demonstrated greater knowledge of the Utah Jazz's backcourt needs, how free agency works, and of Paul Millsap's contract status than you have? How does that work, exactly? To be honest, you have no idea what you're talking about. That's me even being more charitable and polite than you've been: telling you have you you're way out of your element here. Let's read on and see why!

Seriously man? The team is ALREADY in that position without Millsap. Where have you been? Shedding salary was never going to be an issue for a team with under 40 million on the books for next season, some of it not even guaranteed.

You literally have no idea what you're talking about. -BUT- Let's pretend your make-believe scenario comes to pass. The Rockets are in a pickle! They know they will somehow be 4 million in cap space away from signing a marquee free agent or two lesser ones. Ugh, if they could just shed (lol) two rookie scale contracts, they'd be in the clear!! Ugggh! What to do, what to do?? In that case, the Rockets would *still* be better off holding off on a trade for Millsap. You're clearly unaware of this, but in that situation, Patterson and Morris could just be--at the very worst--traded to another team for high second rounders as a salary dump. And even in that situation, with what I assure you would be very willing trade partners looking to take advantage of Houston's newfound desperation--must sign Iggy ugggghhhhh --the Rockets would STILL be better off than they'd be trading those assets for Paul Millsap. By signing Millsap as a FA, they get him on the books AND they get those picks as well, AND the salary space. You don't think that's preferable to aiding a hated conference rival for no reason at all in exchange for a player the Rockets could get for free? You don't think even Millsap + high second rounders is better than just Millsap?

So the math becomes this--and this is even a worst case scenario here, this is like if the league just scoffed at the trade value of Patterson and Morris for some reason and gave up poor value on each:

Your advocated scenario: An unrestricted Paul Millsap who would be within his rights to just sign with another team in July anyway. Rockets lose assets used to acquire him.

Better scenario: Rockets sign Paul Millsap in free agency. Rockets dump Patterson and Morris for (lol as if) a paltry second round pick each. Rockets still dump salary to prep for bigger signings, and now have those picks instead of helping your beloved Utah Jazz for no reason at all. Rockets also have Paul Millsap under contract, unconcerned that he just signs with another team.

Yet ANOTHER thing that I doubt you've considered is that if Houston trades for Millsap and he thrives due to a better system, better coaching, greater pace of play, etc. and gets the chance to showcase his skills that the posters who want to marry him are clamoring for, then what exactly do you think that does for his value headed into the off-season? In other words, if Millsap works out with Houston and becomes the kind of player the Rockets would even WANT to sign to a multi-year deal, what do you think that is going to do for his market value? He's unrestricted, dude. The Rockets would have no rights to him. You don't understand that? Other teams will be calling his agent and the price of Millsap goes UP, not down. There's no "bargain" to be had in that situation. I can't believe you haven't considered this. Actually, no. I take that back. I can believe it. I believe all of it. Call me a believer.

 

Get Millsap, trade him for Love.

As long as he's an asset, why not sign him?

 

Not to be a thread Nazi here but this has been debated for some time now in this thread-

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=231801

However, it is a healthy debate so I'll still repeat my side. I stand on the side that says wait till the Summer to sign him unless he goes cheap at the deadline.

I seriously think that he's going to sit for awhile while the big ticket free agents get the first run at in free agency. Since there are very few teams that are set to have cap space next Summer, I sincerely think that Milsap could be had on a fairly reasonable contract.

So why give up assets now for him when this team isn't going to compete for a title this early this year? Yes you will have the ability to sign and trade him next Summer, but still... If we are projecting a market where he's the 10th or 11th big free agent on the market, why would a team give up anything more in assets to acquire him in S&T than the Rockets are already giving up currently to get him? Just seems too risky.

That being said I absolutely think that Morey should make an offer to Utah and hold steady till the witching hour this trade deadline. You never know what kind of bargain they might settle for if it looks like they are not going to be a playoff team.

My offer would be something like-

Aldrich + Morris or Patterson for Millsap

and nothing else. Under no circumstances would I add draft picks. If the Rockets want to still stay flexible enough to make a move for a secondary star via trade(most feasible way) then they must start re-collecting future picks. If that's the ultimate goal, giving up future picks for someone like Millsap just doesn't make sense.

 

Because he's an unrestricted free agent, so there's choice involved. Free will. Django Millsap.

If Millsap works out for the Rockets, he becomes expensive and there's no bargain to be had in signing him. It also summarily kills the Rockets' pursuit for an actual star player in 2013.

Would Millsap be so loyal to a team he's played for for 3 months that he'd be willing to take a cut on the last big payday of his career because he understands "what the Rockets are trying to build?" Man of course not. That expectation didn't work out so well with the OKC front office and James Harden, for instance. Millsap would have no loyalties to Houston. It's why the move makes the leap from risky to just plain old silly.

If Millsap does not work out for the Rockets, then they will have lost valuable players for no reason at all. Oops.

If the Rockets are unsure if Millsap will work out for them, then you schedule workouts with him and have a sitdown with him and his agent in the off-season. You try to ascertain his character, the type of player he is, whether he would be a good fit. Then you sign him for what would assuredly be less than if he exploded in his contract year playing for Houston from February on.

There are always good ways of doing these things and there are bad ways.

 

We need to be more patient. Let's just see what this team can do this season, and we'll see what we got from there. I just don't see why people are in such a hurry to make a move. We're the youngest team in the NBA for crying out loud, we have time to be patient and develop our young talent / assets.

 

I feel like things are getting heated, so let me remind everyone that we are all essentially on the same page here: We may disagree on the path to take, but we all have the same objective. We all want to see the Rockets win in the future and have the best team possible for achieving that goal. And all of us will stop at nothing to armchair GM that into a reality.

 

Um... no. you're the one misinformed.

See here: http://rockets.clutchfans.net/3407/houston-rockets-salary-cap-james-harden/

let me point you to this:

If the Rockets make the playoffs this season, and if they simply waive Delfino, Smith and Machado, they could open up as much as $15.44 million in cap room without having to make any trades (although the team could still have as much as $14.75 million in cap room and still keep Smith and Machado). That would be nearly enough to offer most players a maximum salary contract. While not quite enough to offer the “super-max” to guys like Dwight Howard (eligible for a starting salary of $20.51 million) or Chris Paul (eligible for a starting salary of $18.69 million), other moves could be made to create the additional cap room if absolutely necessary.

Per Bima, they do NOT have enough cap room to go after a Dwight, for example. Saving an additional $4.5 million gets them very very close, though...

Right, except for you're wrong, as noted above.

That's great... EXCEPT the point is I'd rather take a chance and have Millsap this year. For all I know Milsap may turn a 7th seed into a 5 seed and ultimately convince Dwight of the upside of this team.

DM can acquire second rounders whenever he wants, as he's proven time and again.

DM can buy second rounders. Doing so is about as likely as trading Marcus Morris for one, despite your insistence that there'd be teams desperate to acquire Morris for a 2nd rounder. There may be... there may not. Just as there may be teams looking to sell second rounders for $3 million cash.

I am not concerned about Utah picking up Patterson/Morris - or whomever they'd acquire in a similar multi team trade. I want to make the Rockets better

I'm not sure why you think it'd be super easy to flip these guys for a 2nd round pick in the offseason? For one, you'd have to do it to another team that's under the cap, who can absorb salary without sending any back. Otherwise there goes the salary saving component. For two, are there tons of historical examples of this happening? On the other hand, i can point directly to DM buying second round picks as recent as this past year. The value of a second round pick is meaningless, given its ease of acquisition. The extra cap space does have value and I do not concur with your conclusion that DM can just shed so much so easily. yes, he has tricks up his sleeve to shed salary, but not and endless bag of tricks. Moreover, one of those tricks might very well be a move like this.

Moreover, you continue to discount the value of adding Milsap to the team now. Might it slightly increase his offseason signing value if he is trade for a proves to be a better player than he is in Utah and great fit for the Rockets? Perhaps... a little. I'd much rather take that risk than sign either him or Josh Smith in the offseason and not know for sure what kind of fit you're going to get.

Again, please provide past examples of salary dumpings by teams and how they did it and how much. I don't think it's as easy as you make it out. especially given all the moves DM made last offseason.

They can get 2nd round picks whenever they want. stop being so fascinated with this concept.

I don't care about the Jazz, though even if I did, I certainly wouldn't be pumped or jazzed about Patterson/Morris or some ho-hum PG obtained in a 3 team trade.

Why do the Jazz do it, then? I don't know. But the premise of this is if they would...

I may actually NOT want Millsap under contract at that point. But I wouldn't know for certain as I would if acquired in mid-season.

To be clear, your question is what happens if they trade for Millsap and he performs like an all-star caliber PF? Um... they have a much more exciting season this year and then sign him in the offseason?

For one, Millsap's value isn't going to go from $10 million to $15 million suddenly. He has upside, but from a contract perspective teams will recognize his age, the short-term nature of his jump in production, etc. Could a team take a flyer on him at a huge value? Of course, that's how you get the Phoenix's of the world... that risk exists, regardless.

But if he is traded to the Rockets, puts up 18/10 type numbers, while showing an ability to hit a 3 (say 35%) and add to the team defensively, and management decides they want to pursue him as a long-term signing, I think they will be able to do so at fair value, which is all I can ask for.

...

Not sure why this is that complicated? Nevermind the fact that you know, as a fan, I'd love to see this current team in the playoffs, playing well, and advancing.

I'm on record previously as a tanker. Not because I didn't think winning and making the playoffs had some value. But I thought that the manner in which they do it is more important. A Luis Scola led team making the playoffs is nice and all, but you don't exactly get FAs clamoring to join the team.

This Rockets team, with their excitement and pace and chemistry and group of guys.. they're starting to turn some heads. See the NBATV game and post-game commentary last night. Add a Millsap, become a very comeptitive Western Conference team, make some real noise in the playoffs... and that's how you start turning heads. That's how you POSSIBLY take advantage of a crumbling Laker situation, turning a center who was previously allergic to anything Houston related and all about the money into a guy who sees the opportunity to have fun again, not be berated by his teammate (Kobe) and be part of a winner, in a state with no salary cap and a history that includes one of his mentors, Hakeem Olajuwon. Or that's how you solidify in a Kevin Love's mind that this squad is for real and when it's time for him to force his hand, he let's his agent know where he wants to end up, etc.

 

I think this is the valid argument to my position. The question comes down to what are you trading and how do you value those assets.

I don't value Morris and Patterson particularly highly. Neither seem to really impact that game that much, and i don't see breakout seasons from either of them. I'd be slightly concerned that they wouldn't be available as decent filler in a better trade down the road, and could see that as a reason DM would not flip them.

To clarify, though, this is assuming the Rockets shed no salary. If they acquired Millsap mid-season and in the process shed $4.5 million (Patterson + Morris if that is what would go down), then they'd have $21.5 million without Delfino and $18.5 million with him. The $21.5 million in room conveniently puts the Rockets out there as a legitimate option for Dwight Howard, mind you... even though it's a long shot.

Depending on what a Millsap or equivalent would sign for, the extra cap space seems meaningful to me.... even if they do nothing with it but save it for the

but if you shed salary in a trade for him, you both have his bird rights and more cap space anyway.

I'd also agree getting an unrestricted like Millsap to sign for under fair market value will be tough, perhaps even more so in his case because he's probably been underpaid the last few years. But the only way it is even remotely likely to happen if he is already playing for and enjoying his new squad.

definitely agreed, and since neither Patterson/Morris are guaranteed contracts beyond next year, then the hypothetical trade I suggested has no impact on cap space beyond this upcoming offseason.

I see your point... but is it as easy as replacing Tony D with Patrick Beverley? I never heard of Beverley a month ago and still have no idea what he brings to the table. I tend to think if it was that easy, we'd have a better bench...

I clearly wouldn't trade DMo or TJones to keep Douglas, though.

 

Which is why I said 4 million myself. It is an inconsequential number. It's easy to get rid of without Millsap. And turns out, you aren't even in the position to disagree. Are you really going to sit there and pretend I didn't just say 4 million before you did, so you can attempt to argue against it? Come on now, we're trying to be logical and reasonable people here. This isn't going to work for you. So much for this first giant block of text.

You're kidding yourself if you think Millsap is this kind of impact player or if a Rockets team with fewer talents (that were traded for Millsap!) but then WITH Millsap is enough of a lure to get Howard to throw away tens of millions of dollars hed get for resigning with L.A. In fact, I'm not sure you even understand what really motivates Dwight Howard. It isn't winning. So much for this block of text too.

What are you even arguing now? You are quibbling over a made-up example created to disprove your ridiculous reasoning. The point that you should have internalized was that Millsap for free in free agency is always more advantageous than Millsap less the assets used to acquire him 4 months early for no reason--even if those assets are just second rounders when they would obviously be better. That point went Houston Rocketing over your head so you bicker about second rounders. So much for this block of text.

You SHOULD be concerned about Utah getting Rockets players for free in exchange for a player they're losing anyway, since they've been positioned to compete with the Rockets for low playoffs seeds for years now, and in fact stole the 8th seed from Houston just last year. Do you keep up with the playoff picture much? So much for this block of text.

Because it *IS* easy to flip talented players on rookie deals for less than what was used to acquire them. Shorting yourself in trades is painfully easy. In fact the ease with which that can be accomplished undermines your entire reasoning, and so you've resorted to disingenuously "failing to understand" this basic point. So much for this block of text.

Because there is no "value" in adding a role player who is a modest upgrade over Patrick Patterson to the Rockets, least of all value in parting with rotation players to get him when the guy can be signed in July. And way to frame the risk as something other than what it actually is. The ACTUAL risk is that the dude will just walk in July and sign with another team, and so the Rockets are out him AND the assets used to rent him. The Rockets have no rights to him even if they trade for him. You don't understand what an unrestricted free agent is. Shouldn't you have learned what that was before you tried to argue about it? So much for that block of text.

I think I'd rather just laugh at you for telling me you don't understand the concept of a salary dump rather than allow you to tax my time further. If you don't know what that is or the myriad ways it can be accomplished, then why are you engaging with me like this? You sought out this fight, not me. So much for this block of text.

But you sure are eager to help the Jazz by giving them Rockets players when they're positioned to get nothing for Millsap when he walks. So your apathy seems to extend to not caring that you're helping them for no reason and hurting Houston for no reason too. So much for that block of text.

Then what the hell are you even arguing with me over for great posting honor, if he's nothing to you but a prospective salary dump in a world where dumping salary is unchallenging? Is he an impact player or isn't he? So much for this block of text.

Way to disingenuously describe the issue. This isn't a high school debate team. We're all a lot smarter than this. The point was what do you think happens if Millsap performs well as a Rocket, perhaps even better than he did with Utah as the Rockets' pace of play inflates production. What do you think happens if he becomes exactly the type of player Houston needs and then some. You didn't answer the question, you just pretended it was another question and then answered that. Rest assured his contract value would go up, not down. There is no savings there, no frugality. So much for this block of text.

Now you're just making up numbers as though I actually suggested a 5 million annual increase and not you, just now. You're strawmanning like a 9th grader. C- Again, we're all smarter than this, we're all adults here. You're the one who came up with both of those figures just now. You don't even know this guy's contract value. Nobody does until he actually drops to free agency. That's what free agency is for: To determine a player's value. So much for that block of text.

"All you can ask for" is what you've been asking for, which is for the Rockets to shortchange themselves for the sake of a 3 month Millsap experiment when they could actually sign him outright in 6 months. If you're so sure of his capabilities, then why not just wait? He'd be worth it, right? Oh, is it because you're not sure he'll actually work out, as you stated earlier? Then why are you hyping a mediocre player whose fit with the Rockets is so dubious? Why are you advocating that they sacrifice for him for so little gain--3 months added playing time. Either you're sure about this or you're wasting my time. So much for this block of text.

"On the record previously as a tanker?" I'd say you're on the record as the worst kind of fan then. If you profess to have this much faith in the Rockets' front office, then you shouldn't be doing the last thing a fan would want to do, and hope a team is deliberately and conspicuously bad. They could improve in other ways. But reminding you of that inconsistency is like reminding the sun to be hot, the grass to be green. So much for this block of text.

You went the verbose route, which I can respect, but you ultimately didn't write much. You ducked me.

You ducked me.

 

I'm all in on the Millsap bandwagon, this team is a lot closer than people seem to think on ClutchFans. He might be enough to push us over the top given another year of growth.

 

Millsap pushing us over the top for NBA championship?

C'mon Man?!