Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

In your eagerness to appear smart and proclaim your expertise in math, you prove your ignorance.

The reason it makes them better off IS EXACTLY because they can do the trade in mid-season, and shed some longer-term contracts while picking up an expiring. Such a move could either allow the team to sign a supermax type FA (and Dwight Howard is becoming increasingly an option by the day... regardless of his previous stance and the fact that he'd make less money... that Lakers squad is f'd up, and Dwight's going to take the brunt of criticism)... or it could POSSIBLY allow DM, via some other cap cutting measures, to sign two of someone like Millsap/Josh Smith/Andre Iguodala, etc. in the offseason.

As I previously noted, a Patterson/Morris for Millsap trade (throw in 3rd or 4th team.. whatever, those are the salaries involved from the Rockets perspective) saves the Rockets over $4.5 million in cap space this offseason. Add in one of TJones/Dmo and it's another $1.3+ in savings (I don't think they should do that, just showing the math).

Of course, you LOSE Patterson and Morris as trade bait for other deals, or simply as assets to play for your team. That's the risk/trade-off. Personally, I'd rather have the cap space to see what DM can do with it... AND the opportunity to see what type of fit Millsap (or Josh Smith) is... BEFORE signing him to a long term deal.

 

we mention Milsap but is he really a TRUE??? 2nd option

Duo of Patterson and Morris Vs Milsap this season

Patterson avg. (12.7 ppg 4.8 rpg) 27.3 mpg

Morris avg. (9.1 ppg 4.2 rpg) 22.9 mpg

PF Duo = (21.8 ppg 9 rpg ) per 48 mpg

vs.

Milsap (14.6 ppg 7.6 rpg) 30.3 mpg

So what are you really missing from a production standpoint but I know little things play a factor but I'm more than happy with our PF position.

 

thats why TD would be in the trade? as i'v stated, as i'v also stated i don't think we have enough to give them as well.

 

Now put mil sap in a duo with either of those players and see what we get lol, we wouldn't be trading the duo, just one.

 

C'mon man, you can't compare 50.2 mpg (Patterson + Morris) to 30.3 mpg. On a 50.2 minute basis, Milsap is averaging 24 ppg, 12.6 rpg.

Which is more a statement of our below average PF play right now than anything. Of course Milsap wouldn't play 50 mpg. The question is who would be the new backup PF and how could they do? Milsap/TJones is CLEARLY an upgrade to Patterson/Morris.

How much of an upgrade? Is Milsap a piece that can be a major contributor on a championship team? What would that type of trade do for DM's flexibility going forward? Are there better options? Those are the things to consider.

 

My bad you were reply to JayZ's trade idea nvm lol

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bcjcbjv

We can truly see if Millsap is a good fit with the team before-hand. If he is, cool. If not, we lost Jones and Aldrich which isn't that bad considering we would still have Dmo and Greg Smith.

 

maybe there will be a huge 4 team trade and utah gets aaron afflalo

 

but you also factor in the mins Milsap will command at the 4 (30 mpg) when he gets more involved in the system. Also factor in that the Rockets have gone small in games with Delfino and Parsons playing the 4 at times so that will be another deduction of minutes Morris or Patterson will get at backup 4. You see my point??? You will have to factor in matchups and rotations other teams throw out in the game

 

The only real things that trading for Millsap now as oppose to pursuing him as a free agent gives the Rockets are these: (1) the option to trade him elsewhere in the summer via sign and trade, and (2) a half-season rental of Millsap. Those are it. Nothing more.

As such, I would be very hesistant to give anything of real value for Millsap, unless I think Millsap can really put the Rockets over the top and into the title contender territory this season. The potential return for a Millsap S&T is simply not that good-- Remember what CLE and TOR got for S&Ts of Lebron and Bosh? And these are better players than Millsap. Besides, if you do a regular signing of Millsap, he becomes trade-eligible by December 15, 2013 anyway.

I can see a team that is not going to have meaningful cap room in summer 2013 and want to have Millsap long term paying Utah something for him. In this case Millsap's Bird Rights makes the difference between being able to sign him and not being able to sign him. But for a team like Houston that has $15M, maybe $17M+ in cap room, the math is entirely different.

Remember when the Nets wanted to Gerald Wallace to join Deron Williams in 2011-12? They trade a draft pick for Wallace instead of just waiting half a season and sign him as free agent. That draft pick turned out to be Damian Lillard. Would hate to see whoever HOU trades for Millsap blossom in a similar fashion.

 

if any picks are going to Utah it will be a 2nd IMO

 

now to me if they do Milsap & Hayward for Patterson and /or Morris, Aldrich, TJones and 2nd round pick which will work I will be more than excited

 

Well i'd see the rotation like this, if we'd trade morris TD n picks and if we received Milsap and Waston

Asik with 26, Smith with 15, Patterson with 7
Milsap with 30 Patterson with 18
Parsons with 33, Delfino with 15
Harden with 38, Delfino with 10
Lin with 34, Waston with 14

9 Man rotation everybody gets plenty of mins. Yeah we don't have the small ball with parsons at the 4 but we would now have the small ball with milsap at the 4. Plus harden and delfino imo can play point and theres no harm of taking mins from waston. So if you wanted you can run a
Harden
Delfino
Parsons
backcourt if you wanted to.

 

If you trade for Millsap, doesn't that allow you to exceed the cap to re-sign him and Douglas, plus exercise Delfino's option? I'm worried that we'll have to waive both Douglas and Delfino to sign Millsap in the offseason.

 

First of all Utah will not take that deal....no disrespect!! Second of all, you would rather have Watson over Douglas...Watson who is avg in the last ten games 2 ppg in 20 minutes of action via http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1027/earl-watson vs. Douglas last ten games w/ 10.6 ppg in 23.6 minutes of action via http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3979/toney-douglas WOOOOOWWW Buddy that will be the dumbest trade Morey has put in place

 

Uh, so trading TD Morris and picks wouldn't get us Milsap and easton because its not a good enough package, yet it would go down as the dumbest trade morey ever put in place. ok

 

Good point-- though I am not sure if it's that huge a deal.

ESPN's cap expert Larry Coon mentioned the other day that next year's salary cap is likely to be around $60M (up from $58M this season), which would give Houston $17M or so in cap space if they don't pick up Delfino's guarantee, and $14M if they do.

So, what do we think a good price for Millsap is? I figure something like 4 years $50-55M will be the "market value" (remember, takes only one team to offer that much-- and in fact he is unrestricted so you don't even have matching rights, Millsap can just decide he wants to live in some city other than Houston). If you get him for significantly less than that (say, 4 years, $40M or $45M), it will be a good contract that you can trade for value, but it's really hard to get unrestricted FAs for below market value.

In the $50-55M case, your starting salary is around $12-13M, meaning you need to choose between Douglas and Delfino if you don't have Bird Rights on Millsap (Douglas is probably going to command $3-4M). The main question here is whether signing Millsap for this price is a good idea or whether you should just keep your cap room for 2014 free agency.

Anyhow, I am not sure if it's that big a deal-- the Rockets can probably find other cheap options (Patrick Beverley?) for backups. Is losing Toney D that big a deal? Would you trade, say, DMo or TJones just to avoid losing Toney D?

In the $40-45M case, Millsap will be a "good trade value" contract, and you can probably fit him, Delfino and Douglas all into the $17M in cap room. As I said, it's kind of unrealistic to expect such a low figure-- unrestricted (and even restricted) free agents tend to get more money than fans think they deserve.

 

from a production stand point yes it will be the craziest trade ever...you keep mentioning picks that we do not even have that Utah would want we traded 3 first round picks (Mavs, Toronto and ours) + Lamb and a 2nd round pick to get Harden brother. Rockets only have a 2nd round pick in this years draft

 

Utah is 18-18 on the season and two games out of the 8th seed so why would they trade pieces when they can still make playoffs...so this is kinda a mute discussion IMO

 

TD has done a great job for us, but let's be clear he isn't a starting PG or even a very good backup PG. His ast/36 min is only 3.7 (Lin is 6.9) and his tov/36 min is 2.4 which is 4th worse on the team behind Lin(3.4), Harden(3.3) and Asik(2.7). Part of the high tov can be blamed on the offense we run, but those per 36 min numbers are within +/- .4 of TD's career average so it's not just this season.

In many ways TD is like Nate Robinson, but Nate is a better playmaker. His value to a team is as an instant offense/3P shooter off the bench. Some people say he's a good defender, but I don't see it. I'd be curious to see what Synergy shows.

As you said TD alone isn't going to get us Millsap and Utah doesn't need another PF. They still have Favors and Evans the slam dunk champ rotting on the bench.