I've always been optimistic about it being close and having a chance. Bottom line is there were way too many fluky things in the earlier game. Two New England fumbles inside the 10 and they didn't lose either (scoring touchdowns both times). Schaub missing a wide open Foster for a touchdown on the second series (seriously, how bizarre is it to complain about Matt not checking down? ) and instead throwing the pick. The ridiculously awful DPI flagged on Manning to extend a New England scoring drive. Walter and Jean had horrific drops. I mean, it's one thing if the other team's best is simply better than your best, but there were just so many incredibly routine things that all went against the Texans. It's hard to imagine luck not evening out a bit, and if it does, the Texans definitely had some bright spots on defense to build on. That said, it's hard to actually pick the Texans simply because of where the game is being played. It's almost impossible to blow them out, and if it's close, it's hard not to trust Brady over Schaub down the stretch at home. Currently thinking 30-24, Pats.
How I'm looking at this rematch: -Maybe I'm fooling myself, but I still have a hard time looking at the Texans' Dec 10 game plan and not come away with the impression that Kubiak and Wade both said: let's give it full effort but keep it basic. They were 11-1, poised to get homefield even if they treated this as a bonus game. I saw too many obvious mismatches to believe they were giving the Patriots their best shot. Again, maybe it's homer delusion, but I want to think they were evaluating the Pats, holding back the chess moves until now. -On offense, everyone here is still going ape over Schaubwatch, but I think the actual key is the O-Line. We go as they go. When Newton banged his knee in Detroit and missed time, the offense took a nose dive. In New England specifically, the run game was dead and Schaub was taking sacks. Saturday was the first time since his return that Newton looked reasonably like himself again, and the O-Line as a whole played their best game in a very long time. I don't know if all is well, but I feel a lot better about this group going into Sunday than I did with the Andrew Gardner/Ryan Harris MNF experience. -The million dollar question is, can we score enough points to come away with the win. Let's all agree that 19 isn't going to cut it, unless the earth stops turning and the Pats only manage 18 like they did against the Cardinals (in Foxboro!) on week 2. They've only been held under 30 six times, and they tacked 31 on the Ravens early and 34 on the Niners. Can't lean on the D like we have so often. Offense has to do their part and ring up 7 a few times. -Cross two fingers regarding Aqib Talib's hip. Coughing up the bye and giving it to NE gave him an extra week of rest. If he's 100%, Schaub's job is going to be a lot tougher, because he can take away Andre and force the check downs. If it's still bothering him, that secondary is vulnerable. Regardless of his status, it's paramount that we do a better job attacking the secondary with OD and the other receivers. Foster finally saw some action in the pass game last week, and it would be nice if that continued. -Obvious statement is obvious - have to establish the ground game. Kubiak's scheme revolves around it, especially right now with #Anxietytroopers Schaub. Easier said than done, as this defense is best against the run. As mentioned above, we have to hope for a better performance by the O-Line and better button-pushing from Kubiak. We were missing Graham from double TE sets last time as well, so hopefully we'll benefit from him as well. -Obvious statement is obvious - Special Teams can't screw us over. No margin for error in this game. A year ago, Jacoby's fumble started us off in a hole and led to Yates crashing and burning with hero-ball. We got away with ST costing us field position Saturday, but they have to do better Sunday. Can't keep opening drives behind the 20 and handing the ball back at the 30. This was a problem Dec 10th. Worst case scenario is a 4th Marciano Special Wrong Way Red Carpet TD. -Other side of the ball is where I was most surprised during MNF. It really seemed to me as if Wade wasn't looking for matchups or schemes tailored to NE's unique offense. Specifically, letting Jackson go man against Welker and Bradie James against <strike>anyone</strike> Hernandez. This go round, none of that will fly. Pats get to enjoy their double TE punch again with Gronk back. If we're being honest with ourselves, man coverage isn't going to get us anywhere but run out of the building again. No one can go man against this group. They are built to exploit mismatches, and with 3 top tier guys, one very good WR, and 3 more effective targets behind them, they'll get a mismatch any down they want. Wade wants to use off-man or soft zones in his base D. He wants the rush to take away reads, rush passes, and give the DBs shots at INTs. But this offense is kryptonite to that scheme - Brady makes his reads presnap and launches a frozen rope long before the D-Line has a chance to do anything. Kareem usually affords a decent cushion and avoids bump and run coverage, which invites the quick slant or out almost every down. Bradie James is simply atrocious in coverage and can't be left against either TE without substantial help. A new wrinkle/development since last time is the losses of our second and third ILBs to IR. Last week, Wade started Ruud but seemed to favor a pseudo-nickel lineup with 4 men down (Watt inside), Quin up next to James, 4 DBs playing up, and Keo alone deep (I winced every time I saw him back there, but to his credit, he did decently enough). I actually like this package going into Sunday, especially if Ball is ready for full-time duty. IMO, putting 6 DBs out there and depending on the line to hold Ridley at bay is a smart ploy. You can disguise coverage - Quin lets you flip between nickel and dime at will; critical against an offense that loves to go up tempo/hurry up. Personally, I would shy from man for the most part and establish a 6-man zone inside 15 yds - a briar patch with Keo staying back to watch for the deep man the Pats will send from any given spot. If you do go man, it's better to have Jackson on one break vertical runner Lloyd and J-Jo on multi-break Welker, with Quin the first choice against Gronk in a man 2 nickel coverage. A lot of things have to break right for us to win. It's not far off from going into Baltimore last season. They can do it, but they've got to play their A++ ball, something we haven't seen since week 7.
And I would rather "die fighting." What I can't stand is whimpy play calling, whimpy execution, and whimpy reaction to adversity. As long as the Texans go all out, fight like crazy, and never quit, I am O.K. with the outcome, win or lose. It is true, I have no confidence in Schaub or Kubiak, BUT, let's do this. The TEAM can win.
Shiloh makes me nervous if asked to cover. Hell of a time to throw him in the mix. He would probably fare better covering a TE, where they allow a little more physicality, he and Quin on Gronk, and Hernandez gives us a fighters chance. As has been the MO all year, it all starts with pressure on the QB. Zone,Man,Cover 2 ... it wont matter if Brady has time in the pocket he's seen it all. IMO thats the key to the game. Pressure Brady, make him uncomfortable and he'll throw it up. The A/B team substitutions on the right side of the OL make me kind of uneasy also. I think its a little late in the season to keep doing that. Pick a guy, and let him build some chemistry with the rest of the line. I'd prefer Brooks for this game due to the 'bulk on bulk' matchup with Wilfork. Im not a fan of rotating players, and especially not at this time of the year at positions that are vital to the cohesion of the offense as a whole. Im jacked up, I feel like our offense is due an explosion, its been a while since we just ran ape**** all over the field, and what better time.
The Texans made a minor practice squad move today. They placed TE Logan Brock on the practice squad non-football injury list. Not sure how he got hurt, but his season is over. To take his place on the practice squad the Texans signed TE Jake Byrne. He went to school at, where else, but Wisconsin. The Texans also signed to the practice squad WR Kashif Moore out of UConn. They had an open spot after promoting Cameron Collins to the active roster last week.
typical boring interview stuff, but he did talk about his rehab going well and then the interviewers asked if he was going up with the team to watch the game...you could just hear how much he wished he was playing
It's critical to have both components. This is a buzzsaw offense that thrives on short, quick passes and exploiting individual matchups. When Brady can zip the ball out in 2 seconds or less, anybody you utilized in the pass rush was wasted. Unless they can teleport, they aren't going to pressure Brady. If you want to pressure Brady, you have to take away the underneath hot routes and force him to hold the ball a little bit longer.
NE Playoff history since 2007, all home games except SB. Overall record 4-4. 2011 Playoffs Division W Denver Broncos 45 10 (blowout against 8-8 team with Tebow as QB) ConfChamp W Baltimore Ravens 23 20 (3pt win, very easily could have lost if not for a dropped pass and the of course the subsequent missed FG. all against the team we almost beat if not for Yates horrible QB play) SuperBowl L New York Giants 17 21 (9-7 record Giants) 2010 Playoffs Division L New York Jets 21 28 (11-5 record Jets) 2009 Playoffs WildCard L Baltimore Ravens 14 33 (9-7 record Ravens) 2007 Playoffs (Perfect Season Bid) Division W Jacksonville Jaguars 31 20 (11-5 record Jax) ConfChamp W San Diego Chargers 21 12 (11-5 record Chargers) SuperBowl L New York Giants 14 17 (10-6 record Giants) The perception is the Pats are amazing and indestructible but history more than show that is only perception not reality. Exclude the Tebow game and their near perfect 2007 season, all of there games are within one score. Fact is we've got a very good shot. I believe that we can win and if you can then you just might.
Just think about next season .. he will be back, most of the defense will no longer be rookies ... I cant wait!!:grin:
Who on the defense is a rookie? Just Mercilus and Crick really. None of the other rooks on roster even play.
That might all be true but it's also true that football is a game of match ups and New England is probably the worst match up possible for us. They have the weapons at receiver and tight end, plus a QB that can handle blitzes. They also have that big tackle on defense that disrupts the run game and gets pressure up the middle in the pass game. Add to this the fact at our offense (Schaub in particular) has not been playing well. I think we may need 28 points or more and need to be plus 2/3 in turnovers to win this game. You never know but I'd be much more confident playing Denver than New England.
