Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

The other problem is that Millsap fits a need that the Rockets don't have. The future of the pure PF in the NBA is in doubt because of the small ball lineups. Especially for teams that have a huge defensive center like Asik. What good would Millsap be against the Heat or OKC when they go small? At least one of Asik or Millsap is going to be on the bench. If the Rockets pick up a PF who cannot shoot the 3, they need someone like Smith. An extremely athletic, mobile defender who also can put up 14/8 a night.

 

This.

Aldridge is a star. Millsap is not. The difference is, a star can be your first option. You just throw him the ball and he can score for you. Millsap needs somebody else to create for him. We already have a couple of reliable non-star scoring PFs in Morris and Patterson. The only thing Millsap does better is rebounding, and rebounding is not our weakness.

Plus, Millsap is not a 3-pt shooter. One of the most important things for our PFs is floor-spreading. If you can't shoot 3s in our guard-oriented offense, you need to be really good at scoring in other ways as the likes of Bosh and Aldridge.

 

To be honest, I would be ecstatic if the Rockets could get any of the following players to run in 3/4 small ball lineups alongside Parsons:

Nicolas Batum
Gerald Wallace
Wilson Chandler

etc.
etc.

Basically any rangy but strong player who traditionally plays small forward is a guy the Rockets could also slot at power forward.

The argument against stickman lineups sometimes becomes "How would they defend power forwards in the post?" but I'm not sure how applicable that is any more. How many really good, quality post players are there in the NBA right now who aren't just midrange face-up guys who any player with speed can get in front of? I'm talking legit, back-to-the-basket bigs. Four...five?

I'd agree that Millsap's skill set feels awfully redundant among the Rockets' other bigs.

 

My point is we need two very good guy in C And PF. I do not agree on the idea that we should get Millsap just to trade both Asik and him for one almost superstar PF.

The other thing I advocate is that we should emphasize defensive contribution when looking for a PF rather than the ability to create his own shots. if we want to keep Millsap, given that he is last his prime, I do not see how he is a significant upgrade from MM that warrants the cost. I watched Millsap s game , he is a very hardworking player but really struggles against larger PF in defense. MM struggles too, though.

 

I think you're both overrating "small-ball" and underrating Millsap's ability as a semi-tweener. Small-ball works for Miami because Lebron James is Lebron James. Not a ton of other teams are that dependent on it, though. OKC may use it occasionally with Durant.. but again, we're talking Kevin Durant. The Knicks may use it with Melo, but again we're talking Melo. These are PREMIER players and scorers in the league. Generally, it is working for teams that have GREAT SF's that can slide into that PF role occasionally. Conversely, the Thunder go primarily with Serge at PF. Clippers with Blake. Warriors with Lee (who also plays at center). Pau (when healthy) is not a tweener. Zach Randolph is not a tweener any more than Millsap is. The best way to counter the tweener lineups? Don't trade away Chandler Parsons, I guess...

Millsap will never be confused for a SF. He doesn't have the ballhandling abilities of Josh Smith even as a PF. But is he that far behind Boris Diaw in that category? Or Randolph as a ballhandler? Again, if the concern is guarding Lebron or Melo at PF... good luck. Josh Smith isn't going to help you much there.

But Millsap does have a solid 3 point shot. He has historically a decent mid range shot. While I wouldn't give him the ball at the 3 point line and say go to work, he can be an effective tweener if he gets open looks. He's shooting the 3 meaningfully better than Marcus Morris (I still don't get the fascination on this board with Morris.... he's a net negative from a production/roland rating standpoint), though he hasn't put up nearly as much.

I think Millsap can fill in at center in certain small ball lineups with Parsons at PF. I don't think he's as huge as a mismatch with Asik as you think. Howard/Pau isn't working because (1) both are always injured, and (2) their coach doesn't run a system that helps them work. Bynum/Gasol worked fine.

Again, would a TRUE awesome stretch 4 be better? Sure. Who is that? Kevin Love, and that's about it.

Josh Smith is a lesser version of a tweener PF, though it should be noted he still isn't a good shooter. He's benefited from an improved 3 point shot this year, though still not at the rate Millsap shoots it, and his mid-range game is awful. he's taken 159 shots from between 10 ft and 3 point range and only made 39 (24%... yikes). And that's not an outlier. For the full year last year he shot 500 (!!) of these shots at a 36% rate, while being horrible at the 3's.

I get you said defense. Right. Smith is DEFINITELY a better defender. I'm not exactly comfortable with him guarding Lebron/Melo/Durant though. Id STILL rather have Parsons on those guys than Smith. So who would Smith (or Millsap) guard? In the Heat's case, when Lebron is at PF, Battier is playing SF and that's who I'd rather have Smith/Millsap guard. But of course that takes Smith away from the basket, where his defense is appreciated anyway.

In either case, I concede the Smith is a better defender with more length, but would be very concerned about his offensive game, and a player who STILL takes too many long jumpers on a team that has a tendency to get good looks for their "tweener" PFs. Smith would help defensively, but would he hurt offensively.

Again, I'd note there are virtually no "right sized 4's" out there that I'd feel comfortable chasing 3s more than just putting Chandler Parsons on those players. The issue becomes can Millsap (or any of the other candidates) then chase the replacement threes. I'd say Millsap can generally do it as well as anyone else - defending the Shane Battier's of the world. It's a team defense issue at that point. I concede Josh Smith as a potential true 4 that you could mix and match a bit. That's about it.

Conversely, Aldridge CAN play center, and does occasionally, but still his ratio is much more PF than center. Moreover, though people often underlook it as an aspect of defense, Millsap is the better rebounder per 36 than either Millsap or Aldridge, and is as good or better at steals and blocks than Aldridge.

In any case, if you can get EITHER Millsap or Josh Smith during the season for what amounts to Morris/Patterson combo I think you do it. I'd be much more comfortable doing that than signing either out right, as it gives you a chance to test the fit. And lets you shed salary in the offseason by virtue of getting rid of those 2 contracts which have more than this year on them. Millsap seems to be more likely to be traded and for that type of return, imo.

If you're holding out hope for Kevin Love, I'm right there with you!

Plus, while Millsap isn't taking a ton of threes, he's still taking one a game or so and hitting at 43% I also think he's likely to get more open looks in the Rockets system. No supporting data to that, but gut feel based on how the team plays. I agree with your assessment that he is a much better jumpshooter/perimeter player than some give him credit for. Not a SF by any means, but a true PF with some shooting skills.

Nevermind the fact that Aldridge barely shoots any threes, generally and is 0-9 this year. I'd rather Millsap with his 43% 3 point shooting than Aldridge with his 40% long 2 point shooting. Basketball Reference will give you shot charts for all players.

The question is is Aldridge more of a "go-to" player? Maybe... but who cares? I think you CAN go to Millsap in the post. He won't be able to get you solid mid-range 2 pointers the way Aldridge will (though I'd argue those are only solid shots for Aldridge because he hits them with some consistency... generally they are bad shots), but Millsap can do some damage in the post.

He's not a HUGE upgrade over Patterson/Morris, but he definitely IS an upgrade. even if someone can successful argue he isn't quite as good as Aldridge, he isn't much worse.

And as noted, he's a FREE AGENT after the season. Don't like him? Let him walk.

DM isn't dumb enough to give up any super meaningful assets for him. Neither is the rest of the league given his free agent status. That's why he is a useful target.

On the other hand, prying Aldridge from Portland may not be possible at all, but if it is it will require much more in the way of assets.

 

I'm not a fan of the small ball thing because the two elite teams in the league (OKC, Miami) will shut your small ball lineup down no problem, not to mention old fashioned teams like the Lakers who have 2 seven footers up front. '

There's never been a small ball lineup who won it all in the NBA.

 

I would trade Millsap and Asik for Kevin Love, but generally agree... the idea shouldn't be to get him just to trade him. the idea is get him for relatively cheap, see how good of a fit he is, and let him walk and save more cap space in the process if you don't think he's a great fit in the offseason.

I'm a big fan of defense, too, but I can name very few defensive specialist PF's that are worthy of meaningful minutes in the NBA. Ibaka might have been the only one historically, but even he is an offensive threat now and a complete player.

You want as good a player as possible. You don't want a sieve defensively, but a player that is capable of scoring and rebounding without getting abused defensively.

On the whole, good defense in the NBA is about team defense anyways.

We might not want to keep him, but 28 is hardly past his prime. He'd be an anomaly on THIS Rockets team, but it's kind of strange how all of sudden the board is allergic to players in their mid to late 20's? OKC is the only team out there with really with COMPLETE youth... and even then they have a veteran or two (see Kevin Martin). It'd be great to have HOFers at every position that were all under 25, but never happens. Lebron is 28. Wade is 31. CP3 is almost 28. Melo is 28. The Spurs are old as crap. Aldridge is 27.5. Josh Smith is 27. Etc. Etc.

I think the board is holding out hope for Kevin Love. Me too.

Also, MM does more than struggle. He's an ok player overrated on this board I guess because he didn't turn out to be a complete bust?? I'd take any of the aforementioned players as an upgrade.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ll-helped-the-miami-heat-win-the-championship

 

Millsap was 10/17 from 3P the first 10 games. Only 2/11 in the last 26 games. Only 12/28 .43 for the season. 30/102 .294 for his career.

I dont see how people have gotten the impression that Millsap is the second coming of Ray Allen.

BTW, MM is 43/114 .377 from 3 this year. Not bad.

 

I didn't say that, and I'm pretty sure NOBODY did.

I said he shoots it better than Morris does, which is factually true. Morris has had hot stretches and cold stretches, too. He had an 8 game stretch at the end of Nov/beginning of December where he went 4-17. then he had a 4 game stretch in mid December where he went 9-14.

The question is what could Millsap do over a bigger sample size. I'm not sure anybody knows that. His 28 three point attempts this year is almost his career high already. I just happen to think for him it will extrapolate.

Nevermind the fact that Millsap is a MEANINGFULLY better rebounder and defender that Morris and is consistently a positive +/- guy while Morris isn't.

Any ideas on how to counter Lebron as a PF? He's only the most unique basketball player in history in that regards...

Absent finding another Lebron, I suggest finding a PF that can be a bruiser down low and make Lebron play physical frontcourt defense.

 

No one seems to understand that Millsap is not a 3 point threat. All of his 3 pointers in his career put together is not statistically significant. He is not a 3 point threat and never ever will be.

 

Sorry but .43% on 28 shots versus .38% on 118 shots isn't meaningfully better than MM.

Of course I was exagerating about the Ray Allen comparison, but the OP and two other people now have praised Millsap's 3P shooting based on such a small sample size.

 

I think that is what makes them superstars. Even Chuck Daley (great defensive coach) created a defensive scheme to specifically stop MJ called "Jordan Rules" could not stop his effectiveness. Your only hope is to minimize his positive effect on his teamates.

 

Millsap is absolutely a HUGE upgrade over Patterson/Morris. Those two are doing their best to hold the fort, but are still net negatives on the court, as most young players tend to be. For Morris, essentially his rookie season right now, that is decent.

Millsap on the other hand is an all star caliber two way player. He is the best player on the Jazz, and the main reason they are .500. Jefferson has the more rare skillset -post scoring- but contributes less to winning overall, if that makes any sense.

He would instantly be our second best player, and a trio of Harden/Millsap/Asik puts the Rockets in position to challenge for home court. It puts us ahead of teams like the Grizzlies, and Warriors. Question is, is it enough to contend with? Is it enough to beat Clippers, OKC and the Spurs? Because if it isn't then being stuck in first loser is only marginally better than mediocrity.

If Lin can develop into a Kyle Lowry type impact player or better, and if Harden can improve to become a top 5 player(he is top 3 offensively already, but closer to top 10 overall), I think it would be close to enough to contend. That is an awful lot of "if"s to bank on, even if I think there is a good chance for both. But it still wouldn't make us favorites necessarily, just in the conversation.

Better question is, what's the alternative? Josh Smith? Marginally better than Millsap and cost more. Aldridge? Unavailable and meh. Sign Kevin Love? Yeah, let's do that.

 

I completely agree....some of these folks are silly. Millsap does nothing for us in order to reach our final goal which is to win a championshp.

 

My bigger question is, how does this helps the rockets beat clippers,thunder,warriors,knicks,heat in the next 3 years? I mean this is about assembling a team good enough to win a title, not just to get inthe playoffs. To me, Milsap, like cxbby stated is a upgrade ovr what we have. That being said, alot of pfs in the league are upgrades over thos 2. Milsap helps the rockets get in the playoffs, Aldridge moves you closer to a championship. I would just ride it out and hope jones or donuts can upgrade that spot in the next 2 years. If I cant upgrade the pf spot from say the d to b+, then im not really moving.

 

Instead of picking out a game or two why not just answer this question.

If you have 5 minutes left and are in a tight game.....who would you rather have on your team......Aldridge or Millsap?

Nuff said.

 

Millsap.

 

I would save my cap room, go with Patterson for those 5 minutes or maybe small-ball with Parsons and Delfino at the F spots, and try to make a run at Lebron James in 2014.

Frankly, they are about the same level to me-- helps make HOU a 50-55 win team but doesn't make them elite.

 

Wrong. What you are describing, shot creation, is a skillset. It is not the definition of a "star".

To me, the definition of a star is someone who contributes meaningfully to winning. Where to draw that line? Probably top 20-30 in the league.

Some examples of stars who won't be your first option:

Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Tyson Chandler
Kevin Garnett(current version)
Jason Kidd(young version)
Andre Iguodala
Josh Smith

Paul Millsap

Each of these guys are one of the top contributors to winning on their respective teams, while none are capable of being the 1st option.

To your point, efficient shot creation is probably one of the most valuable skillsets in basketball, which is why many of those who possess it are indeed stars. And it would be very hard for a team to win big without one of these players. Good thing we have one. Given that, while it would be nice to get a second star with that skillset, it is not a necessity.