Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

I honestly feel like if we sign Millsap straight up in the offseason, we could be a contender even without a second superstar if given a year to gel.

At present we're 6 to 8th seed as the least experienced team in the league. I expect that with no changes at all, if we keep our team together we can battle for homecourt advantage next season.

Given we're stacked with PF's, replacing two of them with a PF that's clearly better than all of them puts us in solid discussion for homecourt. We would still be one of the youngest and least experienced teams in the league.

Now let's say after we sign Millsap, we make a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal using some combination of Morris/Patterson/Jones/White/Douglas/Lin (not sure if he's an FA this offseason)/Delfino to land someone who can be an upgrade at PG or a candidate for 6th man of the year. I would rather have Millsap at PF than Lin at PG.

I would say that puts us in the top 6 teams in the league and still probably the youngest out of those 6 teams with well-managed salaries.

We would still have the assets to acquire a more impactful star in 2014 through trade, and there is a realistic chance that this hypothetical team continues to surprise people:

Asik/Smith
Millsap/Morris
Chandler/Delfino
Harden/Delfino
Lin/Douglas

It's not as good as signing a superstar outright, but realistically I think we have a better chance at trading for a superstar with this set of assets than we do as straight up FA's.

I think this is a much better option than signing Josh Smith to 1.5x the salary, despite the potential for being on ESPN more often. How likely are we to just sign someone like Kevin Love or Dwight Howard outright? Not sure it's going to happen.

 

I know Morey said we can't be picky about a second star, but it needs to be an actual star.
We are dropping the bar way too low with Millsap.
We may as well get Carl Landry back and call him a star. They are just about the same player.

 

Milsap? No Way, No How

I really hope your scenario doesn't happen, you want us to trade Asik and Milsap plus other assets for another PF in Love or a now injury prone Howard? Why would we trade a young healthy C that is costing us nothing compared to what he could get on the Market? Asik is the future of Centers in this league and we shouldn't trade him for anything. You take Aldridge b/c he's had to win games for Portland by himself. You take Aldridge b/c he's a legit 6'11 post up player with range. Milsap and Patterson are virtually the same player. Milsap is 6'9 and gets benched when a taller bigger 4 is negating his presence altogether. We need a guy who not only can stretch the floor but also can get easy High percentage buckets when our shooters go cold or we're not getting foul calls. Milsap is easier to get but do you really want ANOTHER 6'9 PF who is a few 3 pointers away from becoming a SF? If we can't get Aldridge we should stick with what we got. Hope things go badly for the Trail Blazers, ive seen a few games and fans for some reason boo Aldridge often when he screws up in their eyes, Portland media has been critical of him as well. We should make a trade to acquire assets to intice Portland to make a move with Aldridge. Patterson & Morris are younger versions of Milsap, dont see the point.

 

I agree. I do not quite see how an aging PF that is never on a star level could give us anything in a trade. Asik + Missap is not going to land us anyone much better than Asik. In fact, I do not see any reason to trade Asik. His defense production is already on a star level or even more than that.

I also disagree with making the ability to create his own shot the top priority in acquiring the PF. Our current PFs are doing in average or above average work in offence. They are not very good in protecting the paint. Our defensive rebounding is really not that good despite that Asik is producing star numbers. Asik is consistent but our defensive rebounding as a team is not. We need a PF that is very good at blocking shots, 1 on 1 defending, and getting defensive rebound. In short, we need BOTH C and PF to be very good defensive players to win a champaign. This is how Miami, Mavs, Piston, Lakers were built in their Champaignship year.

 

The Mavs PF was Dirk. Exactly not what you are suggesting.

The Heat PF is Bosh. Solid rebounder. Not exactly a premier defender, though solid in the team system.

The Lakers PF is Pau Gasol. A top player in the league.

All 3 of the above aren't just above average PFs, they are great players, all-stars and potential HOFers. The Pistons had Rasheed, and maybe he bucks the trend of being a HOF level PF, though he was a VERY good player. He's the closest to the workhorse rebounder/defender you are advocating.

So basically, what you are saying is we need an all-star PF, right? No crap!! The question is how to get one.

The point of this thread, I believe, is that Paul Millsap is (1) underrated, (2) available relatively cheap, and (3) if traded for mid season would provide time to gauge if his performance does have any improvement in it. To that end, I think this thread is SPOT ON.

Particularly with regards to the last part. You don't want to lose trade chips, but assuming you trade Patterson + Morris and maybe a 2nd round pick or two or cash for Millsap. Worst case scenario becomes you don't resign him in the offseason and you actually SAVE $4.5+ million in cap space, by virtue of no longer having Patterson/Morris on your roster. Best case scenario is you plug Millsap in, he gives you 17 points, 9 boards a night, with a three, a steal and a block a game (not HOF numbers but pretty a pretty good plug-in), and then you resign him in the offseason at $10-$11 million per season. I'm not the cap expert that Bima is, but looking at his analysis my feel is that DM would be able to make some minor moves in the summer if he wanted to at that point to probably afford 2 guys near that $10 million a season range.

Now, I'd agree, that's probably not the best course of action. I'd rather have Kevin Love AND Dwight Howard join the team myself. But while we're at it, we should replace Lin with CP3 and Parsons with Lebron, too! (/rolleyes). DM might just try and go the lots of B+/A- players, really deep team, good height, strong, deep bench route and see where it goes, knowing he can flip assets in a package as necessary at that point, if he doesn't think the opportunity to trade for a true star exists at this point in time.

Maybe this isn't possible, but consider a lineup like the below:

PG: Lin, Douglas
SG: Harden, Delfino
SF: Igoudala, Parsons
PF: Millsap, DMo/Jones
C: Asik, Smith

AI is a free agent, too, and still a plus defender and solid all around player but shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. That's a strong, blue-collar workhorse team that is deep and should be able to defend and still score. You remain at a disadvantage from a pure best player scenario against the Thunder, Heat, maybe the Clippers, etc. but it allows you to be VERY competitive immediately while still retaining some young players to flip in a package if a superstar does become available.

Sorry for the tangents, but point being, IF (and a big if) you can get Paul Millsap mid season for the likes of Patterson/Morris, or something similar, you do it.

 

The thing is, in the current landscape of the NBA, contending teams 'best' lineups have been small. And when that happens, Millsap becomes a bad matchup. This comes from him being a pure PF. Not a PF/C like a Gasol or a Bosh. Not a SF/PF like a Lebron/Durant/Melo. He's only a PF who can guard PFs.

San Antonio uses Diaw, a long time tweener, as their PF(Splitter is their Patterson as PF/C). Thunder pushes Durant at PF when they really want to take it up a notch. Miami likes to put Lebron at PF. Same with Melo in NY. Even the Rockets play a tweener Morris as a stretch 4, and often goes with Parsons at PF to create mismatches. This is they type of play the Rockets are going for. Jones fit this mold quite well too. It's tailor made for Harden and Lin.

Millsap takes away versatility. He's like a better version of today's Gasol. Not real great on the perimeter, but when paired with an Asik/Howard type, takes away too much spacing inside for guard play. He plays inside, which would be nice if he can play center. But he's an undersized 4 as is. And he can't play the uptempto small ball either, because he's not really a mismatch either like a Parsons or even Morris.

As much as I dislike Josh Smith's penchance for shooting long 2s, he does bring that versatility to the Rockets as a combo forward on defense. Capable of guarding big 4s and stretch 4s alike. While players like Aldridge and Love allow you to play them as backup center, a big help in order to fit a stretch 4 for the Rockets guard play. Millsap fit neither hole. Even if he is a better player than Aldridge(debatable), he's not a good fit because he's an undersized 4 that can't chase 3s.

 

I basically agree with the OP, aside from the trade scenarios presented for the offseason. I think the Rockets should trade some combination of Morris, Patterson and picks for Millsap to try to take that extra step THIS season.

Posters saying Millsap can't elevate his game are the same ones who said that Harden can't be a first option and/or Lin is not starter material. Truth is we don't really know what Millsap would look like in Houston's system but I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be an excellent three point shooter and further ignited the offense with his rebounding.

Seems like a no brainer to me but I agree a third team may be needed (Toronto for Lowry to the Jazz?) and I would keep Douglass out of the deal.

 

This is the reason why advanced stats can be so misleading.

If you were to only look at advanced stats a player like Kevin Martin a few years ago would have been considered "elite" or top 5. Advanced stats can tell you things you might not otherwise acknowledge but to base a player like Millsap as superior to Aldridge because of advanced stats is completely foolish.

It is as if none of you watch the actual games and just look at advanced stats to make your determination. Watch the actual games !! There are so many other factors that determine whether a player is superior or not.

LA's offensive game is a million times better than Millsap. He actually commands double teams on the low block, and can finish games. Did any of you watch what he did to us earlier this season? Do you think a player like Millsap can take a game over like that?

Lets be clear......Millsap is a solid player but in no way is he better than Aldridge.

 

You're just brushing off the fact that 37% of Millsaps total shots the last 3 seasons are midrange jumpers. Only .008% not even 1% of his shots have been from 3.

Add in the fact that his fg% for those midrange shots have dropped from 47% to 31% I would guess that he's either lost his shooting touch or is trying longer mid range jumpers and is missing. That doesnt bode well if you want to turn a post player into a 3P shooter.

Now tell me how exactly does Millsap fit right into our offense?

 

I would love for someone to ask Morey on 790 or social media what kind of player he thinks this team needs more to be a contender at the 4. He cant comment on specific players but probably would elaborate on the type of player. Long athletic defender that can catch and finish alleys on the pick and roll and post player or an upgraded stretch 4.

 

I personally think trying to get dirk for year and half would be good cause he can stretch it out and post at the elbow which would make it hard to bring asiks man to double. His knee will get better and I don't think he would mind playing second fiddle on a team since he is 34. The only problem is it would gut the little depth that we have.

 

Has it been considered that Millsap:

1. Will be 28 years old before the trade deadline

2. Would be the oldest Rockets starter by far

3. Hit his ceiling years ago and will obviously worsen with age

4. Would need a contract that would last him until his early 30s?

 

I think the upgrade from Patterson to Milsap is so marginal that it would be counter-productive to throw in Morris and any other first round picks.
I certainly would not give up Patterson and Morris.
This is the same Milsap that averages 14 and 7 on 45% shooting as a low post player right?
I could see if he was 22, but he is already past his prime in my opinion.

 

You mean "finish games" and "take a game" like this?

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=HCiHOpNJXnc&desktop_uri=/watch?v=HCiHOpNJXnc


Maybe like this?

http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=related&v=GnVXKfgfQ0E#/watch?feature=related&v=GnVXKfgfQ0E

 

I've said it in an earlier thread and I will say it again.

If we want to be a serious contender we need a second star of at least the caliber of Love or Aldridge. Its unlikely their respective teams will trade them anytime soon, so we need to have both player/pick assets ready and cap space in case they finish off their contracts without being traded.

However, I think this should not preclude us from using our cap space. I think the ideal way to handle this is to not trade for Milsap and lose our assets, but instead overpay him in the off season to make him accept a shorter deal.

For instance, he is probably an 8-10 million dollar player. We should offer him a 12-13 million deal for 2 years with a team option for the third year. That way, we can be competitive now and still have the flexibility to trade or sign Love/Aldridge when they become available.

 

I only saw the shot charts from the last 3 seasons on NBA.com. I know exactly why Millsap's midrange fg% has fallen. He's no longer their best post player, so they've tried to turn him into a stretch 4. But he doesn't have the range. The numbers prove it.

Again you bring up his 3P shooting this season and again I answer 10/17 in the 1st 10 games 2/10 in the last 26 games. Small sample size, but clearly he doesn't have confidence in it since he's taken only 10 in the last 26 games.

Just look @ the play by play log from last nights game against Dallas: (6/14)
makes layup from 2'
ft
ft
misses jump shot from 9'
misses jump shot from 5'
misses bank shot from 6'
makes reverse layup
misses jump shot from 17'
misses jump shot from 18'
makes jump shot from 4'
misses layup from 2'
misses bank shot from 8'
makes turn around jump shot from 7'
makes jump shot from 6'
makes layup from 2'
misses jump shot from 18'

Just for fun the 1st Rockets game on 11/19/12 (4/9)
misses jump shot from 3'
makes tip shot
makes driving layup from 2'
misses jump shot from 20'
makes layup from 2'
misses jump shot from 14'
misses jump shot from 5'
ft
ft
misses layup from 3'
makes fade away from 17'

Second Rockets game on 12/01/12 (3/11)
makes step back jump shot from 11'
misses jump hook from 6'
ft
ft
misses floating jump shot from 6'
ft missed
ft
misses jump shot from 4' (blocked)
misses jump shot from 14'
misses jump shot from 15'
makes driving layup from 4'
misses jump shot from 19'
ft
ft
misses layup from 4' (blocked)
misses 3pt jump shot from 26' (blocked)
makes 3pt shot from 25'

That last 3P was one of the only two 3P he's made in the last 26 games. I didn't cherry pick the games. I just picked their last game and the two Rockets games.

Just think about it. The Jazz fans aren't too heartbroken about losing Millsap. Why is that? Maybe because he isn't a dynamic game changing player. He's Carlos Boozer 2.0 Better than the original, but not worth the trouble to upgrade.

 

Exactly, and this is Morey's thinking as well. He's not going to take settle for a Millsap type guy who is good, but not good enough to make you that much better. We have nothing that we would be willing to give up for Millsap so off-season is the only chance. I still don't think overpaying him is the way to go, since better players are available and we're not giving up flexibility for him. Maybe a 3-way trade or give up little at the deadline would be perfect, as long as there are no picks involved and we keep Morris / Patterson.

 

The problem with this thread is simple.... Paul Millsap is not a star