Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

I would trade for Mislap... for Patterson only

otherwise wait and sign him in free agency...

 

Aldridge is more of an inside player. I think Millsap will fit a bit better with us. Yet they are both good.

 

How will a paint defender clog up the paint on offense? Makes no sense...

If you think an undersized 6-7 PF can post defend Love, Griffin, Duncan, Gasol, then you entitle to your opinion.

 

Aldridge throws up long 2s, the sort of shots the Rockets don't like to put up in our system/offense, and the sort of shots opposition team's defenses prefers giving up.

And while he's good at it (better than most PFs), he's not good enough at it to make them at a clip that gives him above league average TS%.

Portland has a decent starting 5, and there's good spacing for Aldridge with Lillard, Matthews and Batum all players with deep range.

Jazz on the other hand, has average spacing without a good 3pt shooting SF, and the paint is crowded with Jefferson, Millsap, Favors and Kanter.

I'd prefer Millsap, and much more so because Aldridge isn't available. Especially with the Blazers right in playoff contention with a poor start, and a rising young PG in Lillard.

 

In this post-911 world, when treasured American values are constantly in dispute, when families don't know where their next meal is coming from, when it's like the Renaissance never happened, when it's like plaid doesn't match with stripes, are people going to accept that this is a basketball reference comparison of the two players?

http://www.basketball-reference.com...m=0&p1=millspa01&y1=2013&p2=aldrila01&y2=2013



For some reason, seeing it on BR makes it seem more "real" to me. Um, that's not bad at all for a guy making half as much money.

Offensively, I feel like Millsap is not the "better" player so much as the surprisingly minuscule difference between Millsap and a struggling Aldridge makes the former a cheap performer. OP is right to point this out. Is that the kind of value that non-Morey GMs would covet, though, if the plan is to flip Millsap for a better player down the road? Will they "see" what we see? It's doubtful. But I wouldn't be uncomfortable with him as a Rocket, albeit a bit disappointed that the Rockets couldn't garner a better name.

If the offensive numbers are comparable, then I guess my concern shifts to Millsap's effectiveness on the defensive end. I try not to watch Jazz games if at all possible, but I've still had the displeasure of doing so anyway. My impression is that Millsap is often at a disadvantage defending the post due to his lack of athleticism and tweener status. Not good. He's certainly not an aggressive shotblocker or defensive presence. He seems decent on switches, though I'm not sure how good the Jazz really are at defending perimeter players in general. Their crappiness at it and affinity for a giant frontcourt over a quick one is why they've been an historically bad road team for the last few years. Well, one reason anyway.

Can anyone speak intelligently about Millsap's defensive prowess? Feels very "meh" to me, and defense is always a tough thing to pin down with stats.

 

I for one hope that the Rockets do not leap at a PF at the trade deadline for these reasons:

1: The Rockets are a very young team, which is still trying to learn the spread offense. Introducing any other system would set them back, maybe a lot.

2: Having a PF on the floor who cannot shoot the 3 ball is just going to bring the opposing PF closer to the basket. This will certainly reduce the number of successful drives to the basket by Lin, Harden, and Parsons.

3: Team chemistry, of which the Rockets currently have boatloads, will most likely be negatively affected.

4: Committing salary in to a non-star player just reduces the Rockets flexibility in the future.

5: The Rockets are currently getting 22 ppg and 9 rpg and 3.8 apg out of their PF position. Not great, but not something that needs to be fixed in the immediate future.

 

eh, I fee like he's making a lot of fuzzy assumptions that don't hold up in place of common sense.

Assumption 1: Millsap is playing at an all-star level, even better than Aldridge. I can accept this, although I don't see the point as I will show below

Assumption 2: Utah wants to get rid of him for very little and tank, rather than keeping him to contend. I haven't seen reports in Utah on this yet. And it contradicts Assumption 1. Plus Utah can keep 3 bigs for their rotation, and trade Jefferson.

Assumption 3: Based on Assumption 2, Rockets can get Millsap for very little in trade to the Utah, not having to include either Parsons or Asik. I also feel this contradicts assumption 1, because if a random fan can see this, all the teams with stat heads, and there are many of them, also see this. Wo why would they not want Millsap, and allow Morey to get Millsap for very little? Why would the bidding war for Millsap consists of some combo of Morris/PPat/Jones/DMo/Smith?

Assumption 4: Millsap + Other pieces = big star, BUT Prospects Rockets trade for Millsap + Other pieces =/= big star. This despite Millsap being a S&T must include his consent and require the other team to pay Millsap the most money in a FA competition. Yeah, I just don't see it. Again, if other teams want Millsap so much, why would they allow Morey to grab him for so little in the first place?

 

According to Synergy on Millsap defense:

Play %time - Rank
--------------------
Overall 100 -- 94
Isolation 12.5 - 35
Post up 19.8 -- 47
PnR man 10.8 - 2
Spot up 44.1 - 153

 

i just want a healthy above average player. is PM healthy?

 

Mike_lu: You got outworked in that thread you linked to because your own stats didn't support your claims. So after (what we call) goalposting five or six times by further refining and refining and refining the criteria down to where it might as well be meaningless--I think you ended up citing to Millsap's performance over literally just a 2-3 week span last season at one point?--you caught feelings from it, and just started insulting other posters. What was it you said? I was "too stupid" to understand PER stats? Too dumb to understand your convoluted, poorly represented, even more poorly argued point? I recall that Clutch had to go in and clean that thread up bigtime because you just crapped it up so badly. It's the very thing you just did with another barrage of posts. Just now, on the last page.

Insults instead of discussion seem to be your forte, but I've got bad news for you: These people respect good basketball insights over childish backslapping about some "mutual internet enemy" who dared to strike up a discussion with you. If somebody disagrees with you about something, it's not the end of the world. Grow a pair and get over it. The last thing you should do is stalk some stranger on the internet and look for opportunities to insult and degrade them whenever you deem it appropriate. Poor form. How can I phrase this so even you can understand it: Don't you address me ever again in your posts, and don't you dare speak about me to others in a derogatory fashion on this board again.

If we're trying to be all meta here and irresponsibly shift focus away from the topic and onto what other people bring to the table with their posts, I think you lose out big bro. I don't think you're good at this stuff. You don't know how to constructively argue. You can't dance the dance. "BeeBeard isn't the WORST poster..." "my sympathies" winky winky Jesus man, nobody really cares what you think if it has nothing to do with basketball.

 

Basically, you are saying Millsap has low trade value when it's a low-cost rental, but a high trade value when he's a S&T at highest cost(market FA salary)?

And you don't see the contradiction in your perceived market here? You're saying he'll become really valuable in a few months, and a team will be willing to give a star for him and some other pieces. But no one wants him now because despite the above. You don't need an MBA to see how that doesn't make sense.

 

I never mentioned anything about offense, stretch 4 or not.

I prefer a PF who can man the paint and block shots. Millsap doesnt fit that profile.

 

You're imagining again, and lacking in reading comprehension.

The posts are there for everybody to see if the goalposts have ever been moved (you're imagining), who was arguing Millsap would be at best a sidegrade over 2Pat based on 2Pat's 2 weeks of good performance, how you didn't look at Millsap's 4-5 years body of work instead just focusing on his slow start (having to play a fair bit of 3 to accomodate Favors/Kanter and hence his lower PER to start the season off, and now back to 20). But yeah, being there, done that.

You really need to re-read it again.

All the stats, including Synergy defense stat that you've just requested here, was in the original Millsap thread.

And you're per 36 min revelation on how little gap there is between Aldrige/Millsap ... was in that original Millsap thread as well.

Just learn to read things carefully and with comprehension before jumping in to critique.

 

The modern power foward must be able to shoot the 3 in the modern nba especially our team.

essentially power fwd and small fwd are the same position... 6'8 to 6'11 who can shoot 3's athletic finish

 

Here's the thing about Millsap: He's a "borderline Allstar" level player, which is good. But do the Rockets have a realistic chance at doing better than "borderline Allstar" with their upcoming cap room and trade assets?

If you want to talk in terms of WARP (wins over replacement player) as the Locke/Pelton podcast talks about. Millsap is somewhere around +9 to 11. For comparison, Lebron James is about a +26, Dwight Howard (when healthy) is about +20. So there is clearly whole other level of players out there-- which, by the way, is the same conclusion we would reach by looking at other stats or as a matter of popular opinion.

Clearly, this kind of true elite player is what the team wants-- and likely requires-- in order to becomes a title contender. I personally don't think the Rockets become a favorite to reach the Western Conference Finals (which would make them a realistic contender) simply by replacing Patterson/Morris with Millsap.

So, the issue is whether making a Millsap deal now gives you a better chance of getting the kind of talent that gets you to contender status than your existing path there (i.e. $15M+, maybe $17M+ in cap room and trade assets). Right now, I think the current path looks pretty good. With Harden & Company already in place, HOU looks like an attractive FA location compared to most other situations. Thus that $15M-17M+ in cap room is a much more useful tool for HOU than it would be for, say, Sacramento or Milwaukee. I would not throw this away easily to pursue another path.

Millsap is good, but I wonder how good a trade asset he really will be either in a S&T scenario or sometime after you re-sign him to a market-value contract. First, S&Ts don't usually get you a whole lot in return (most likely what you get is a few lowish picks). Second, unless an unrestricted free agent is a clearly worth more than the max salary allowed for him, it is very difficult to sign him to a "good value" deal (where his value exceeds his salary). All it takes is one team with cap room and the willingness to overspend on him and you either lose the guy or end up with a bad contract (see Turkoglu, Hedo).

(Also, consider this question: If HOU can really get more for Millsap in a S&T or a regular trade after re-signing than what they pay Utah for him right now, why would Utah deal him now to Houston instead of waiting so that they can be the one to do a S&T or regular trade after re-signing?)

 

Well, your position is unjustified for the following reasons:

1: The Rockets are averaging - what - 28 ppg from running. That leaves 77 points a game to be manufactured in the half court.

2: Millsap is attempting 0.8 2 pointers a game, the most of his career. In fact if you totaled up Millsap's career 3 pointers it would approach statistically significance for a season.

3: Actually I disagree. The most effective part of the Rockets game is the dribble drive, which is a product of floor spacing. Millsap would destroy that spacing.

4: You can quote whatever stats you want. He is not an all-star, and won't ever be an all-star. Millsap sits on a team that must have scoring from its front line. Their guards and SF contribute only about 44 points a game. He is a beneficiary of the Utah system. In the Rockets system he would be a duck out of the water. How many times have you looked at a player on a crappy team and wondered how he could be scoring at a 20+ ppg clip? Same situation for the front line of the Jazz.

5: Millsap on a Rockets team that generates 70+ points a game from the guards and SF positions would be a waste of the money. And why cannot I just add them up? Your argument that there actually are more people than Morris and PP playing the PF just means that the current Rockets are generating more than the stat line I quoted for the PF position.

I personally think you are just being stubborn in your position.