Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

So why is getting Millsap more attractive than getting, say, Josh Smith? I would assume that Smith's a better fast break player than Millsap (PURE assumption).

 

His size/ability does get exposed against the contending teams. We've had that problem for how many seasons and now we want to go back to it?

 

I'll take him if it's for players like Morris, Smith, Pat. He's not worth DMo or Jones when he is going to be a free agent next year along with guys like Smith. At least if you keep the rookies you lose cap space but still have two high upside guys.

 

Why would that be any more advantageous than Asik + the players used to acquire Millsap? And acquire Millsap using which players specifically? Are you under the impression that Morey would be able to fleece a Jazz front office that has proven capable in the past, and then confer that advantage in a subsequent trade for that eventual star? Man, that is dubious at best.

Except you're ignoring the fact that signing Millsap precludes the Rockets taking on any max contract, elite talents this off-season. So your make-believe scenario doesn't hold up: There just isn't enough salary space to go around, even for one of the more frugal teams in the league. The Rockets' cap space is one of the best things going for them headed into this off-season. They have enough room to sign a max player outright, they don't NEED Millsap to entice a team into trading that player to them. And you're advocating destroying that and going all in on hoping Millsap works out and stays a desirable trade asset in pursuit of...the exact opportunity that was squandered by signing him. This is circular logic at best.

I think you're getting confused by terminology / using confusing terminology and it's confusing others. Do you mean sign-and-trade or acquire in a sign-and-trade and *then* trade in the off-season. A sign-and-trade is a description of a particular type of transaction, and please note that there is no savings, no trial period, no nothing when it comes to that. All your other reasons disappear, and it just boils down to "you believe that acquiring Millsap is a step towards acquiring a better player down the road"--even though doing so actually destroys the Rockets' ability to acquire that better player in free agency. It's inconsistent at best.

Quite to the contrary. The "trial period" is five weeks. It's not months. It's not years. It's an ever-shortening window between whenever a hypothetical deal is made, the time it takes to clear, the time it takes to get Millsap out on the court, and then the NBA trade deadline which is just February 21st.

And I'm still in the dark as to whether you're even advocating acquiring him in a sign-and-trade with the Jazz, or trading for him with his unrestricted FA status intact. I'm unclear about this because you have thrown together a list of dubious benefits to both approaches under one heading and only one set of benefits would ever apply.

Are we talking about the same person? This is not a man envious of a lack of cap flexibility, willing to sacrifice the Rockets' position as a major player in free agency this off-season. I don't think your read on his tendencies is correct. I especially don't think you're listening to yourself when you claim that the ability to sabotage the Rockets' free agency season and -NOT- have the ability to sign a star player is on that list of "anything" he would do...to sign a star player.

Your reasoning is crumbling under scrutiny, but I think you've still made a good case for Paul Millsap as a good free agency signing this off-season, especially if the Rockets strike out on getting better players. He's not a bad player. He's also not a great player. He is Paul Millsap, and he can already be had for nothing at all.

 

Slightly good PF who has hit his ceiling and will probably want a middling salary. Man, I wouldn't sign him to his market price, let alone trade assets to get him. Aside from playing the PF position, Millsap makes absolutely zero sense for the Rockets from a money or team development perspective. I highly doubt that Morey will waste his precious cap space on Millsap, let alone trade for him. If the Rockets wanted to go that route then they would have just kept Scola.

No doubt most UTA fan would love to trade him to the Rockets, though.

 

Millsap is a very solid player, but he really the 2nd star player that can push us to a true championship level team?

Not so sure that I can say that....

I think it's Kevin Love or bust in terms of a 2nd star at the Power Forward position.

But then again...Millsap has always kind of played second fiddle to Al Jefferson in the post for Utah. Maybe he could thrive as the primary offensive post player.

 

Medicine N Music you're not answering some basic questions here, you're just underlining and boldfacing vague statements instead.

Simple question: Would the Rockets be acquiring Millsap in a sign-and-trade or acquiring him with no future contract?

It would have to be either scenario.

I've already broken this down extensively, but it's a dumb idea on both occasions.

Under a sign-and-trade, there is no more max contract chasing in the off-season, nor is there any "auditioning" of Millsap for the team. He'd be a Houston Rocket whether the Rockets wanted that or not. And rather than just going out and freaking *signing* a star player, done, finished, the Rockets would be in the precarious position of hoping another team would be willing to part with their star in exchange for Paul Millsap and a fistful of other frontcourt players. The idea is ass.

Under a simple trade scenario, the Rockets lose assets for no reason so they can acquire a player they could have just signed in the off-season.

You're posting things like you believe that without a sign-and-trade, Millsap would be a Houston Rocket, which is not true at all. He'd be a Rocket until the end of April, upon which he'd just walk to another team just like he's doing with Utah. Why on earth would that be a good scenario for Houston, after forfeiting valuable players to rent him for 2 months midseason?

I get the distinct impression you're not really up on how some of this stuff works. Feel free to correct that misconception: You can start by answering the question, "Would Paul Millsap be on the same expiring deal when he's acquired from Utah, or would he be the subject of a sign-and-trade transaction?"

 

http://c296307.r7.cf1.rackcdn.com/lockedonjazz/files/2013/01/1-4-kevin-pelton-late-game-32.mp3

Here is an interesting podcast with Jazz radio guy David Locke and Kevin Pelton from Basketball Prospectus. They talked about, among other things, the value of Millsap. Worth a listen.

 

Med n Music (2 of Royce White's favorite things), can you provide the same comparison between Millsap and Josh Smith?

 

The answer to whether the Rockets should acquire a player like Millsap depends on whether you consider the Rockets a contender this season.

My answers to both questions are no.

 

I think Morey is constantly trying to find a Millsap without paying for one so i dont see him giving up talent or a nice sized contract. The way this team is constructed, the next big piece has to be a four but Millsap is just not talented enough nor does he have the size to be that 2nd guy whereas Aldridge is more talented and has the size even if his stats aren't quite Millsap's. It's not just the production in an 82 game season, it's who can dominate high level competition. Is Millsap going to dominate Bosh or Ibaka or Gasol? I would say probably not. Could Aldridge? I think so though you're right about the long 2's. Love is the best fit I think, even Ryan Anderson though nowhere near being a 2nd star could work with a better bench and growth by Lin, Parsons, and Asik.

 

Anybody who thinks Paul Millsap is a better player than LaMarcus Aldridge is a complete and utter moron.

Nice try OP.

 

You're getting haughty and arguing semantics, but lo and behold, it turns out you really are advocating that the Rockets sign for a sub-star talent who would be far from guaranteed from resigning. This guy isn't Dwight Howard, though. It's not a valuable risk to take. What is the thinking here??

Did the fact that he was an unrestricted free agent escape your analysis? Because it's kind of a HUGE deal. This is Millsap in his contract year, and because he's NOT considered a star talent like Aldridge, the Jazz are probably going to let him walk or at least flirt with the idea before resigning him themselves depending on their opinion of Al Jefferson (who is also in his contract year, how nuts is that?)

In that case, there is no advantage to giving up good players for a guy the Rockets could literally just sign outright while keeping the same players. The whole premise of your thread makes zero sense. There's no advantage! You know what I think? I think you weren't aware that he was an unrestricted free agent, and now that you've learned that, this is all crashing down. It may be making less sense to you than it did at first. Just a theory!

So you really do think it's wise to: 1.) give up assets for a player that can be had for free 2.) gamble that he'll resign with the Rockets after that and 3.) gamble that another team will come along willing to part with a better player than Paul Millsap in exchange for Paul Millsap? That's such a weird, unnecessary risk to take for a player who could just be straight up *signed* in a few months anyway.

I think there is some credibility to the idea if Millsap promises to resign with the Rockets as a condition of the trade, but in that case, it would still just be his salary counting against the Rockets cap hold and making it so that they couldn't chase a legitimate star player this off-season. They'd have obligations to Millsap at that point instead. Same old problem.

That's a lot to give up when weighed against giving up nothing at all to get the same player. You are advocating giving assets to a team that has no power here. Unless the Jazz are willing to ink Millsap to a new deal before trading him (i.e. exactly the scenario you are so adamant to now reject), they are out of the picture entirely. They're not entitled to get a thing for him. Not a thing. Not one Rockets player.

Do you think there's going to be such a hot market to trade for an unsigned (oh excuse me, "un-extended" ) Millsap between now and February 21st, that the Rockets are really getting in on the ground floor here? If the Jazz go full youth movement, then he's going to be an off-season signee. And hopefully not for the Rockets, because that will have meant that Houston lost out on more enticing signings. The rich Playboy model went to another team, so the Rockets would be stuck with the hood rat with the heart of gold who believes the Taco Bell drive-thru counts as a date.

 

Oh, rep me for disagreeing with you, Medicine N Music?

TWO CAN PLAY AT THAT GAME.

 

Id be happy with either guy. I really covet aldridge though.