Pure stats are just numbers. The only possible "joke" about them is how we choose to interpret them. Hollinger's power ranking is a "magic formula" or computer only stat that Hollinger came up with to interpret certain data to rank NBA teams so each of us has a right to our opinion on it's validity. Obviously ESPN thinks it good for their site, but most other sites use human power rankings.
Do you realize that I'm calling Hollinger's stat a joke because mine is better. That's the whole bet. Are you calling my stat a joke? I am correct wrt to the Rockets, and Hollinger is not. Can I say it more simply?
y'all need to chime in quickly if you think Hollinger is more correct with his #4 ranking in the entire league vs my #9 ranking in the West. I have to go to sleep...and then maybe Tuesday I will see how people choose to reinvent the world to make Hollinger correct... lols
First of all, its not my prediction. I'm willing to do a tip jar bet that Hollinger's current projections (which are based on the current power rankings of the teams) will be better than yours. But you've yet to provide your projections. Do that, and we're a go. To simplify things on your end, you can use the following formula to convert RW-HL differential to final season win projection if you like. It will project out what the RW-HL differential will be over the remaining games, and use that to derive the total wins for the team on the season (I slightly altered the formula to account for teams not playing the same number of home games as road games mid-season; based on my experiments this helped improve the accuracy). ProjectedWins = CurrentWins + (82-CurrentGamesPlayed)/2 + (CurrentRW-CurrentHL)*(82-CurrentGamesPlayed)/(CurrentGamesPlayed+|CurrentRdGamesPlayed-CurrentHmGamesPlayed|) Here's what the projections are using the above formula (again, based on your favored stat). Code: [B]Rk Tm CONF G W L HG HW HL RG RW RL RWHL PW[/B] 1 NYK E 33 23 10 16 13 3 17 10 7 +7 57.6 2 MIA E 31 22 9 18 15 3 13 7 6 +4 53.2 3 IND E 34 20 14 15 12 3 19 8 11 +5 50.3 4 ATL E 32 20 12 17 11 6 15 9 6 +3 49.4 5 CHI E 31 18 13 17 9 8 14 9 5 +1 45.0 6 BRK E 34 19 15 19 12 7 15 7 8 +0 43.0 7 BOS E 33 16 17 16 10 6 17 6 11 +0 40.5 8 MIL E 32 16 16 17 9 8 15 7 8 -1 39.5 9 PHI E 35 15 20 16 9 7 19 6 13 -1 37.3 10 TOR E 33 12 21 14 8 6 19 4 15 -2 33.9 11 DET E 35 13 22 18 10 8 17 3 14 -5 30.0 12 ORL E 33 12 21 19 7 12 14 5 9 -7 27.5 13 CLE E 35 8 27 15 3 12 20 5 15 -7 23.3 14 CHA E 32 8 24 18 5 13 14 3 11 -10 19.1 15 WAS E 31 4 27 16 3 13 15 1 14 -12 10.4 [B]Rk Tm CONF G W L HG HW HL RG RW RL RWHL PW[/B] 1 SAS W 36 27 9 16 14 2 20 13 7 +11 62.7 2 LAC W 35 27 8 20 17 3 15 10 5 +7 58.7 3 OKC W 32 25 7 20 17 3 12 8 4 +5 56.3 4 GSW W 33 22 11 15 11 4 18 11 7 +7 56.0 5 MEM W 30 20 10 17 13 4 13 7 6 +3 50.6 6 DEN W 35 19 16 13 11 2 22 8 14 +6 48.9 7 POR W 33 18 15 15 11 4 18 7 11 +3 46.6 8 HOU W 34 20 14 19 13 6 15 7 8 +1 45.3 9 UTA W 35 17 18 14 10 4 21 7 14 +3 43.9 10 MIN W 30 15 15 14 9 5 16 6 10 +1 42.6 11 LAL W 32 15 17 17 10 7 15 5 10 -2 37.1 12 DAL W 34 13 21 15 8 7 19 5 14 -2 34.5 13 SAC W 34 13 21 17 10 7 17 3 14 -4 31.4 14 PHO W 34 12 22 18 10 8 16 2 14 -6 28.0 15 NOH W 33 8 25 16 3 13 17 5 12 -8 21.0 You can use this, or come up with your own prediction. Doesn't matter to me. The bet is whether you can beat Hollinger's current projections overall. Take it or leave it.
First off...I'm pretty accomplished at showing off like you just did. coolio... bring it...I keep telling you to... Lols at your projected wins column??? Bring it by any definition you desire,,,,but remember...your table above is not correct. I'm not the burden of proof here, you and Hollinger are. Rockets are not a #4 team in the league...your table must first show how that is possibly...not dispute me...but to prove you correct, first. Can someone go make me a sandwich now?
I've already said that I'm not convinced that Hollinger's stat is the best, and that I'm just playing along for fun. So not sure how the "burden of proof" has suddenly shifted to me, when you're the one who's been maintaining that Hollinger's stat is provably crap and RW-HL is obviously superior. Now, if after all this bluster you're not willing to put your stat up against Hollinger's in a simple test of which one makes the more accurate predictions for this season, then no one should take you very seriously on this topic. Its only superior for the Rockets? Only superior for the West? Give me a break. I can't understand what you're saying. Maybe you're on a phone or something. Just list out your predictions for every team in this thread. Then we'll take a snapshot of Hollinger's predictions. And at the end of the season we'll compare which one was closer to the mark. Very simple.
I just read the last two pages since I last visited. And this is how I feel about all his posts. I don't really understand it. It's like he's just trolling for no reason. Anyway, I'm done here. I have no clue what's going on and I really don't care anymore.
You are right...I was on the phone. You have to understand that the Four Horsemen are about ready to play, and my Notre Dame nephew has tickets...and is in Miami right now. I apologize....I'm fine with your list...Rockets are a 45 win team. Yeah, that's my stat's prediction...and I'm fine with all your West predictions, too. Let's go with that. Now can you add a column to list Hollinger's ranking next to my RW/HLs column. Maybe that burden is on me. I can do it....maybe not every day,,,but each week. Thanks for the list...sorry I was talking to family, durvasa. Big apologies. Let's track this. GO NOTRE DAME!!!
Watching you guys argue with heypartner is like watching journalists argue with Royce White on Twitter... RW-HL is the new #protocol, whenever you ask him any specifics, he retreats into focusing on one specific data point he disagrees with, making public demands of others before retreating... heypartner, glad to see ya came around, let's hope Royce White eventually does the same...
LOLs...I'm not Royce White, although I really enjoyed meeting him three times in Las Vegas....I thought that was a little too many time. Like Royce...why are you still on the strip like us?// Anyhow...RW-HL is better than Hollinger....I'm fine with durvasa's table. Not sure why I said otherwise, earlier....let's all track this. GO NOTRE DAME!!!!!!!!!!
OK, good, and no need to apologize. So we're clear, the bet has nothing to do with rolling prediction over the course of the season. We're taking the predictions, right now, and we'll see how close they are to the final win total for each team by season's end. If you're OK with the predictions above, derived directly from the RW-HL metric, than we'll go with that as your prediction. I'm rounding the wins to the nearest whole number as well, so it matches the precision of Hollinger's predictions. HP's Predictions Hollinger's Predictions based on RW-HL as based on Power Rankings as of 1/5/13: of 1/5/13 Rk Tm CONF PW Rk Tm CONF PW 1 NYK E 58 1 NYK E 54 2 MIA E 53 2 MIA E 53 3 IND E 50 4 ATL E 49 4 ATL E 49 3 IND E 46 5 CHI E 45 5 CHI E 43 6 BRK E 43 6 BRK E 43 7 BOS E 41 7 MIL E 40 8 MIL E 40 8 BOS E 40 9 PHI E 37 9 TOR E 39 10 TOR E 34 10 PHI E 37 11 DET E 30 11 DET E 36 12 ORL E 28 12 ORL E 28 13 CLE E 23 13 CLE E 25 14 CHA E 19 14 CHA E 21 15 WAS E 10 15 WAS E 17 Rk Tm CONF PW Rk Tm CONF PW 1 SAS W 63 1 SAS W 62 2 LAC W 59 2 LAC W 60 3 OKC W 56 3 OKC W 59 4 GSW W 56 4 HOU W 51 5 MEM W 51 5 DEN W 50 6 DEN W 49 6 MEM W 50 7 POR W 47 7 GSW W 50 8 HOU W 45 8 LAL W 43 9 UTA W 44 9 UTA W 41 10 MIN W 43 10 POR W 40 11 LAL W 37 11 MIN W 39 12 DAL W 35 12 SAC W 33 13 SAC W 31 13 PHO W 29 14 PHO W 28 14 DAL W 29 15 NOH W 21 15 NOH W 26 At season's end, I'll compute the RMSE for your predictions and for Hollinger's predictions. If Hollinger's RMSE is smaller, then you pay $20 to tipjar. If your's is smaller, then I'll pay $20 to tipjar. Frankly, looking over some of these predictions, I think you have a pretty good shot at winning. Rockets winning 51 and Dallas winning only 29 makes me nervous. We'll see.
OK, that's cool...but aren't you also interested in first showing how Houston is ranked #4 in the entire league by Hollinger, according to the OP? You have the Rockets at #6 It's OK, we can go from here...but I just want to point out how vastly different the Hollinger rating is to the "HP" rating right now. GO NOTRE DAME!!!!!
While I'm not going to bet. I think your RW-HL will win this bet but I think the rockets do better than the 9 spot you have them at. However, my real reason to post here was to say GOOOOOOO IRISH.
According to durvasa, right now, I have the Rockets at the #8 spot in the West. I also, wasn't really going to point this out here except to say GOOOOOOO IRISH
If you bothered reading any of durvasa's wonderly detailed and explanatory posts, you'd know the discrepancy. Honestly, I feel bad for durvasa. Unlike myself, he's actually taking the time to actually explain all that to you in painstaking detail. Rather than me who's just disagreeing with you, and leaving out the mundane stuff because I'm too lazy to bother. Too bad, though. Hopefully, another poster has learned a little bit from reading his posts. It would sad if they all went to waste.
I think the details behind his power rankings are somewhere on ESPN.com. Its based on point differential, strength of schedule, and performance in recent games. Take those together, and Hollinger has us as playing better than all but 3 or 4 other teams in the league currently. Then he takes every team's current rating, and he plays out the rest of the season via simulation. That's how where the projections come from. Hollinger's simulation says we'll win a higher percentage of our remaining games then we've won of the games up till now, based on how we've been playing of late. So, for him, the most likely scenario is go 31-17 the rest of the way and end up with 51 wins. Personally, I don't think we'll win that many games (I feel 45 wins is closer to the mark), but whatever. I'm more interested in the overall accuracy of his projections. If he misses on us by a handful of games, but nails it on most of the other teams, then his methodology can still be considered useful. The other thing I'll point out is there are always hidden variables (injuries, unexpected hot streaks or slumps due to various circumstances, teams tanking at the end of the season) so it will never be possible to consistently predict final season win/losses with a high degree of accuracy. If through 30-35 games, one's projections end up being on average about 4 games off, maybe that's really good and its not realistic to expect better than that.
I told you Hollinger's Playoffs Odds does not rank Rockets at #4... Anyways, glad we have a closure for now, good luck to both.
I'll foot the bill should Hollinger loses. Because I started this in the first place, as I do feel more confident in Hollinger rankings than RW-HL. Mainly because I believe in the concept of using point-differential as a predictor of future success. I honestly have no clue in general how successful Hollinger's predictions generally are. And obviously any automated rankings that can't account for off-court effects can't be fully trusted. But I do think in the end, it can't be worse than RW-HL.
Dude, some of the most eloquent stats are the simplest. That's my whole point. Don't say it is worse becuase it is not more mathematically complicated.
