tehG l i d e downwards. Anyone still want to bet me on our #4 best in the league Hollinger pick vs Moe saying we are a #12 versus me saying we are a current #9 in the West.
Because Denver blew out Utah, an average team, and we only barely won against Cleveland, a terrible team.
I feel that Hollinger's stats would be less controversial if it stayed away from predictions. Analysis of the current state of the teams based on their last 10 games would suffice.
It's not only based on their last 10 games. It weights recent games more heavily, but it is based on the entire season.
I think you are getting this all wrong. We understand Hollinger's way of measuring his Power Rankings, and whether we agree on his definition or not is secondary. Calling that formula a joke is like calling any kind of statistics a joke. It is what it is - more emphasis on recent performances. If you want the "real" definition of what you think Power Rankings should be like (which I agree with you, should be end of season projections), then Playoffs Odds serves that purpose.
Yes. Every team starts off with the same rating at the beginning of the year. Good. So, just provide your predictions for every team. And then, end of season, we'll see if they can beat out Hollinger's current projections. If you need another day to work out your predictions, then we'll use Hollinger's projections as of tomorrow.
Just to be clear your prediction is Rockets don't make the playoffs or do really mean #9 in whole league?
How are we #4 in the league??? I don't think you are following the thread very well.... I'm about ready to go all in against Hollinger....if durvasa will allow me.
Let us be clear...my bet is about the Rockets. Before we make any other bet, you must confirm that I am correct about this thread....That is, there is no chance in hell that you can produce a better measure that says the Rockets are what my stat says they will be, versus Hollinger. Say that first, then I will agree to all your terms. But I want to limit to the West...because that is my eye test on my stat.
I'm not making a prediction...at all. I am saying the Hollinger stat is wrong. And the Road Wins vs Home losses stat will serve you better.
btw...notice meh has bailed on this thread. because he knows my stat on the Rockets is better than Hollinger...every game...every day.
Can you rephrase whatever it is you want me to confirm? I'm not able to understand this. Also, the point of these kind of stats isn't just to get one team right, but to get all the teams right. You said that your stat is clearly superior. If that's the case, then to my mind the way to demonstrate it is to show that it gives better predictions overall, not just for one hand-picked team.
screw everything I just said. just bring it durvasa. You know exactly what I'm saying when I say Hollinger is full of **** wrt the Rockets. That's fine. let us progress. You know the rules...I don't have to predict a damn thing...neither do you... This is just math. Everyone starts at zero like you say. Rockets will be the #9 seed way before they are the Fourth Best Team In the League. Bring it!!!!!! Bring every week....each week. Bring us Hollinger every week vs Road Wins/Home losses. In the West.
The only real-world purpose of team-performance stats is in their predictive value. If you're not willing to compare them on that basis, then we just look at these things in a totally different way.
^and I will guarantee you that my Road Wins/Homes Losses correctly states the seeding when the season ends...100%...And your measure will not. So...since that is a sheer FACT of math....you will have to somehow manipulate the math each week to reconstrue the facts. How exactly do you plan to do that....when my facts are guaranteed to be 100% accurate at the end of the season.
do it. You have no chance in hell predicting the Rockets this year with Hollinger's stat vs mine. You know I am write Just admit it...and move on to trying to prove me wrong on a larger level.
