It seems you are scared of Hollinger's rankings. If you think it's that bad, then you should be happy to bet on all 30 teams rather than harp on a temporary Rockets ranking 2 days ago(Rockets are 5th now). If you think it's that bad, then for all 30 teams, Hollinger should be 30 times as bad. Again, I am giving you a chance to destroy, in your opinion, Hollinger's stupid rankings THIRTY times. By betting all 30 teams against your great system, whatever it is. You should not pass on this opportunity. Not if you truly believe the stupidity of his system.
I'll do a $20 tip jar bet, but it will be for all 30 teams. If you trust your stat more than Hollinger's, then the more teams the better, right? And, like I said, the winner is determined by the smaller RMSE (wins for each team versus projected wins as of games through 1/5/13). Just list out how many games you think each team will win at season's end, and its a go. But if you'd prefer to just take meh's bet instead of both of our's, I'm cool with that.
bet me then... I will definitely win if we only consider the Rockets...so how will you win? only the west. But we have to start from the beginning on this thread....The origin of the bet, no? And this is me being nice to you...because you do realize that my system is 100% accurate at the end. So, how do we make this bet....you freeze this #4 thread in time. It has to be this thread, as this is what I bet against.
I'm down...but not until you describe "RMSE" more. You say..."Projected Wins." where does that come from. Are you saying our projected wins before the season? If so, when?
If you read my first post stating the bet, you'd know it was for all teams. Not just the rockets. And I don't think I came across as misleading you into thinking otherwise, because durvasa made a list of all teams projections, not just the rockets as you imply. And again, why are you so chicken to compare all 30 teams? It's only $20. If you were willing to gamble $1000 on this, $20 should be nothing for you.
show me the original post (after durvasa as you agent) where you said anything. I will bet on anything you said before durvasa taught you otherwise... You know why...because my rankings of the Rockets are always 100% better than Hollinger...every year...every time. If you want to extend my rankings out to the more teams, then you will have to describe how you plan to win...because you can't win...unless you plan it in advance...like Hollinger does vs simple math. I will lose for you. You just tell me how I am supposed to lose? It should be very simple. My only criteria is based on my personal watch...I only watch the West. So maybe we have to deal with that....but I think that makes it simpler for you....If I include the East, you don't stand a chance of winning.
I grew up 45 min north of Houston in Conroe. After graduating HS in 1999 I moved to Utah and I have been here ever since. I love Utah, great fishing, great hunting, gorgeous mountains, clean, beautiful, great place. The ONLY thing that sucks about living here is I hear JAZZ talk on sports radio every day. My most hated team since Stockton hit the "shot". Worst day of my life... I watch 70+ Rockets games a year via NBA LP. Been subscribing to it since 2003.
Yeah, I dont know. I have been visiting Clutchfans for about 5 years, I have probably been to the site at least a couple thousand times to read fellow Rockets fans reactions and opinions, but finally decided to create an account and post. I didnt get any error messages or hoops to jump through, just clicked on "Create A New Thread" or whatever that button says and did it.
Projected wins means taking what you know about the team currently (as of games played through 1/5/12) and predicting what their final win/loss record will be. RMSE means take win-delta for every team (projected wins - wins), square each of them, then take the average, and then take the square root of that average.
show me the post before I bet you.....Before I bet you, and you got scared.. And if it states how you win...then I will bet against you winning. I don't even care how you state how I would lose. case closed
Heypartner I don't think you understand what you're getting into here.. Hollingers power rankings are to simulate other experts rankings, but even he wouldn't bet Rockets #4 in league at the end of the season... It's obviously illustrated in his playoffs odds picture, we are projected to have 51-31 record. Durvasa and 41 have been trying to tell you that all along. Now I would agree with you the current power ranking is bull, just like all other experts power rankings taking recent games into heavy considerations. They aren't good indicator of how teams will finish.... and even Hollinger would agree with you there.
Two problems with this...Are all 30 teams at +0 at the beginning. Problem two, never rank the West in the same formula as the entire league. I'm still down for a bet if we get a +0 stat at the beginning of the year to start with,,,despite it including the East.
Yes there are better indicators. That's what I'm saying Road Wins vs Home Losses is a better indicator than Hollinger. And r e a l l y The fact is, no one can tell me otherwise, except they want to defend a stat media man, because he is a media man. versus my simple stats. Have you not been reading.
I don't think the Rockets are the 4th best team... They are good, and hit a streak of good luck. But young players always hit the wall, or their tenancies are figured out by the league. It's not until you see the adjustments that you can make a better assessment of the talent level. The NBA is all about adjustments. The coaches are too good to not counter the Rockets current moves. But I do think they are a top 10 team.
Hollingers Power Rankings - how teams are doing lately Hollingers Playoffs Odds - his projection for end of season finish You need to get these right first. Your bet would be against the latter. And IMO it's not what one would call "easy money".
Cute how you rephrased that. It's not "Hollinger's Power Ranking - how teams are doing lately"....it's Hollinger's Power Rankings for the season...What you are doing is adding in the last 10 games as vastly more important? r e a l l y Do you want me to show how bad of math that is. It doesn't mean anything enough to rate it so high This thread's OP has nothing to do with this. Now if you insist on making this a criteria for me winning a bet... then bet me.... I just proved to you that your facts are correct. But even still It is easy money... e v e r y ... t i m e. Bet me. Moe's ass beats Hollinger, every time.
