Sorry, I didn't even read the thread before posting. After a quick 5 second skim, are y'all really putting down 1K on power rankings??? dat cray-cray brahs.
If the bet is projecting the eventual playoffs seeds, then spell out what you're projecting the playoff seeds to be. And then, spell out what procedure you will use at the end of the season to decide which projection was more accurate. If you're not willing to make that bet, then meh shouldn't waste his time/money in engaging you on this matter. Just my 2 cents.
What heypartner is arguing here (and its a joke, when you think about it) is that RW-HL differential will be more accurate at the end of the season than Hollinger's Power Rankings in terms of pegging the playoff seedings. One could just as well say that Win-Loss record will be more accurate at the end of the season (trivially so, that's what playoff seedings are based on). Of course, it doesn't follow that RW-HL or W-L record is a better metric for predicting future performance, which is what Hollinger's power rankings are designed to do.
yeah, I still say any number....if he wants to rank Hollinger's final ranking against mine. easy money
#4 doesn't mean the Rockets will end up with the 4th best record. Power rankings rate the level at which teams are currently playing at. That gets plugged into a simulator which plays out the rest of the season thousands of times, and the final projections are the most likely outcome based on that simulation. Hollinger has us beating out Denver, Golden State, and Memphis for the 4th seed by 1 game. We could easily have been at the 7th seed based on his results.
But of course, i did say Hollinger's PR is not more more accurate than RW-HLs. Are you still defending this. We will be nowhere close to #4 seed... My simple stat is always more accurate than a #4 seed..Slice it any way you want. RW-HL is currently vastly sup
I don't understand. If you only care about FINAL rankings, why not **** on Hollinger rankings at the end of the season? Anyway, durvasa put it more elequantly than I could have, so you can refer to his posts. Like I said way earlier in this thread, you are the only person interpreting Hollinger rankings the way you do. Anyway, I'll end this now because I find the bet you're creating to be utterly useless. At the end of the season, I'll take actual win as a better "predictor" of wins than anything you can come up with. So yes, I'll renege on the bet, since I have no clue why anyone would care about record-prediction at the end of the season.
IF you're convinced your stat is a better predictor, than predict what the team's record will be at the end of the season using it. I've already done the work for you and ran the projections using currently RW-HL differential (the results look reasonable to me, I have to say). So you can stick with that, or come up with your own. Then we can just compare how close your currently predictions to Hollinger's current predictions, at the end of the season.
It's not a joke. Let's do it right now, then. I say the Rockets are a #9 seed in the West, and you say the Rockets are the Fourth best team in the entire NBA. Let's bet. Your Hollinger math against a simple to read Standings....I got $1000 on this, including Moe's Ass. Are you really going to take this bet durvasa. I am so down for this bet, because if I win, i'm going to playoff games, if you lose...you are sucking Moe's ass.
Who said I care about only final rankings. I said that it the only way to define a bet. Hollinger is nowhere close to my current rankings, nor will he beat me at the end. wanna bet!!!
Okay. I'll use Hollinger's win totals as the rankings of teams. You can refer to durvasa's earlier posts. Basically 1. SA 2. Clippers 3. Thunder.... and so forth. I will let you rank all 30 NBA teams in ANY way you like. You can use Moe's ass or RW-HL or whatever the hell you want. List them 1-30 based on record. And we come back at the end of the season to see which one is closer.
Durvasa, you seem to be leaning heavily on the rockets early season road struggles, are you ignoring the simple possibility that this team may simply be much better now. Since Nov 19 we are 16-2 against everybody except SA and OKC, Including 5-1 on the road, granted against mostly bad teams, but isn't that usually the formula, dominate at home and be around .500 on the road. 28-14 at home, 22-20 on the road gets you to 50 wins. As for the ranking, 4 is a bit high, not too much IMO. Spurs, Heat, Thunder are the cream, LAC a notch below. 1.Heat 2.Thunder 3.Spurs 4.Clippers 5.Grizzlies 6.Nuggets 7.Rockets 8.Warriors 9.Knicks IMO we may be worse than GSW, we may be better than Memphis and Den, but i have us as high as 5th, no worse than 8th right now. We've already beaten the Bulls, Knicks, and Hawks twice, the east is terrible
If I was to bet you on this, I wouldn't base it on a single team's playoff seeding. That's way too volatile, and it doesn't really prove anything. As I said before, a better bet would be projecting win-loss record for every team, and then seeing which projection ends up being most accurate using RMSE. Even this, for a single season, doesn't necessarily prove anything, but its more interesting. While I'm not yet convinced that Hollinger's projections are particularly accurate, I'll play along and do a tip jar bet that his projections for every team end up being better than yours. If you're game, supply your record predictions for each team (you can use the RW-HL based projections I already computed, if you like, or alter them however you see fit).
No, I was providing predictions using Road Wins, Home Losses formula that heypartner likes. Not saying that's my own personal view on where the teams will end up.
like taking candy from a baby. You post Hollinger's last post about the Rockets being #4. Most rankings are public record. Now, I thought the bet was who could predict the Rockets better....Moe's ass or Hollinger. that's a simply bet. Now it looks like you are retreating in the fact that my math is always 100% accurate at the end of the season EVER SINGLE YEAR. Now you want to recalibrate your bet. I'm fine with that. The Rockets will be closer to #9 in the West (my stat) than #4 in the league (Hollingers). That was the bet.
That's fine...because you are retreating from the original bet that the Rockets are closer to Moe's ass at #12 than Hollinger's stats. That's fine...you admitted to not wanting to take the bet. clearly meh has wimped out on the bet, too. So I will put forth the Moe's bet again,,,giving you more chance. durvasa...let us only do the West. Then define who wins. You know my record...it is public knowledge all the time. What are you going to measure against my public knowledge....some fleeting Hollinger stat in time. NO! You have to prove your West record against mine at the beginning of the season. And we go from there. Then you have to tell me how much money you want to bet and how you plan to prove you won it.
