You are correct in 100% of what you say....So, let's get past that Let me ask again, do you believe Hollinger's NBA power rankings is b#ll**** or not. You can always say no. Let me preface by saying that the Rockets will have to win 48 games this year to even be ranked in the Top 6 of the West...much less all the NBA. This is pretty much the best Moe's ass can do.
I wrote that I think we'll win at least half the remaining games. In other words, I think we will win at least 44. We may win less than 44. For that matter, we may win more than 51 games. But 44-51 range seems most likely. The variable that can throw this off is an injury to a key player.
Oh, I missed that. Do you want to bet that Hollinger ranks all the true playoff seeds better than Road Wins vs Home Losses at the end of the season. I have $1000 that says Hollinger will not be as good as Road Wins vs Home Losses this year.
Yeah they've been hot (8-2) mostly against sub .500 teams, but clearly there needs to be some code added that does a "human" smell test on the computer ranking and spits out a (12-21) team. Thanks
Well, I definitely don't think we're the 4th best team in the league. I wouldn't call it complete BS, as it paints an alright picture of the teams that are hot right now, but like I said in my previous post, I don't believe these rankings are indicative of how good a team really is and how well a team will do in the playoffs. Tbh, if the rockets weren't ranked so highly, I wouldn't even bother looking at them - the same really goes for most power rankings. PRs, in my view, are sort of useless as it's all guess work really - there are so many variables in the game of bball that it's not worth my time to genuinely invest in any PRs. That being said, I'm a positive dude and I think 6th seed for us in the west isn't that big of a leap.
Interesting how that is equivalent to our current Wins vs Losses power ranking. I think you might be on to something. Maybe you should submit your idea to ESPN. just kidding split41...This is just one of my two really pet peeves about Basketball. I hear you....look forward to talking about other less Hollinger things about the Rockets with you.
Unfortunately, I don't have that much money to bet. So how about $20 into the tip jar? Or if you like to brag, you can make me write a signature of some sort. Anyway, here's Hollinger's rankings. West 1. Spurs 2. Clippers 3. Thunder 4. Nuggets 5. Rockets 6. Grizzlies 7. Warriors 8. Lakers 9. Jazz 10. Wolves 11. Blazers 12. Kings 13. Suns 14. Hornets 15. Mavs East 1. Knicks 2. Heat 3. Pacers 4. Raptors 5. Hawks 6. Nets 7. Bulls 8. Pistons 9. Bucks 10. Celtics 11. Sixers 12. Cavs 13. Magic 14. Bobcats 15. Wizards I don't know where you get your rankings. But go ahead and list them as they are right now. Do it by conference, because as I said, Hollinger accounts for Strength of Schedule and your system does not.
LOLs, you are really going to bet my math against Hollinger? OK we will name the bet price after we agree on the bet. You name the price. The bet, as I can figure out is: You say...Hollinger's Power Ranking will be more accurate than Moe's Ass at the end of the season. I say Moe's ass will be more accurate than Hollinger. Even at the end of the season...or should I say, seasoning. Moe's Ass is defined as the Road Wins vs Home Losses seeding at the end of the season...in a +/- rating just like overall Wins vs Losses.
Let me get this straight. You're betting that you can accurately predict the seedings with your stat at the end of the season. Wow, that's AMAZING. This is what the bet should be. Take Hollinger's projected wins right now. Compare that to your projected wins based on RW-HL, which should be specified now, not at the end of the season. Whichever projection ends up being most accurate (RMSE) is the winner.
To get to 50 wins the team only needs to go 30-18 the rest of the way. Which to me seems fairly doable...
Here's what I would project if I was only using Road Wins, Home Losses differential: Rk Tm CONF G W L HG HW HL RG RW RL RWHL PW1 PW2 1 NYK E 33 23 10 16 13 3 17 10 7 +7 58.2 57.2 2 MIA E 31 22 9 18 15 3 13 7 6 +4 50.9 50.9 3 ATL E 32 20 12 17 11 6 15 9 6 +3 48.5 48.5 4 IND E 34 20 14 15 12 3 19 8 11 +5 52.5 48.5 5 CHI E 31 18 13 17 9 8 14 9 5 +1 43.5 43.5 6 BRK E 34 19 15 19 12 7 15 7 8 +0 41.0 41.0 7 BOS E 33 16 17 16 10 6 17 6 11 +0 41.0 40.0 8 MIL E 32 16 16 17 9 8 15 7 8 -1 38.5 38.5 9 PHI E 35 15 20 16 9 7 19 6 13 -1 38.7 35.7 10 TOR E 33 12 21 14 8 6 19 4 15 -2 36.3 31.3 11 DET E 35 13 22 18 10 8 17 3 14 -5 29.4 29.4 12 ORL E 33 12 21 19 7 12 14 5 9 -7 24.7 24.7 13 CLE E 35 8 27 15 3 12 20 5 15 -7 25.6 20.6 14 CHA E 32 8 24 18 5 13 14 3 11 -10 16.6 16.6 15 WAS E 31 4 27 16 3 13 15 1 14 -12 9.6 9.6 Rk Tm CONF G W L HG HW HL RG RW RL RWHL PW1 PW2 1 SAS W 36 27 9 16 14 2 20 13 7 +11 64.8 60.8 2 LAC W 35 27 8 20 17 3 15 10 5 +7 56.4 56.4 3 GSW W 33 22 11 15 11 4 18 11 7 +7 57.8 54.8 4 OKC W 32 25 7 20 17 3 12 8 4 +5 52.6 52.6 5 MEM W 30 20 10 17 13 4 13 7 6 +3 48.8 48.8 6 POR W 33 18 15 15 11 4 18 7 11 +3 48.2 45.2 7 DEN W 35 19 16 13 11 2 22 8 14 +6 53.5 44.5 8 HOU W 34 20 14 19 13 6 15 7 8 +1 43.3 43.3 9 MIN W 30 15 15 14 9 5 16 6 10 +1 43.7 41.7 10 UTA W 35 17 18 14 10 4 21 7 14 +3 47.4 40.4 11 LAL W 32 15 17 17 10 7 15 5 10 -2 36.0 36.0 12 DAL W 34 13 21 15 8 7 19 5 14 -2 36.4 32.4 13 SAC W 34 13 21 17 10 7 17 3 14 -4 31.4 31.4 14 PHO W 34 12 22 18 10 8 16 2 14 -6 26.9 26.9 15 NOH W 33 8 25 16 3 13 17 5 12 -8 21.4 20.4 PW1 is projected wins without taking into account current win-loss record. PW2 is projected wins taking into account current win-loss record (so, only "projecting" wins and losses for remaining games). PW2 should be more accurate. And, for the record, here are Hollinger's current projections based on his power rankings: Rk TEAM Projected 1 New York 54 2 Miami 53 3 Indiana 46 4 Atlanta 46 5 Chicago 43 6 Brooklyn 43 7 Milwaukee 40 8 Boston 40 9 Toronto 39 10 Philadelphia 37 11 Detroit 36 12 Orlando 28 13 Cleveland 25 14 Charlotte 21 15 Washington 17 Rk TEAM Projected 1 San Antonio 62 2 LA Clippers 60 3 Oklahoma City 59 4 Houston 51 5 Denver 50 6 Memphis 50 7 Golden State 50 8 LA Lakers 43 9 Utah 41 10 Portland 40 11 Minnesota 39 12 Sacramento 33 13 Phoenix 29 14 Dallas 29 15 New Orleans 26
Wow, that's awesome chart. I was going for ranking rather than win totals, since heypartner keeps talking about the Rockets rank. But I'll go with this. See who's formula come closest to all the teams' win totals at the end of the season. Unfortunately, I think heypartner just want to make jokes. So I doubt he'll actually go through with it.
Are you meh's agent? The bet is my math -- right now -- will continually be a better Power Rating that Hollinger...proven by whose math is more accurate at the end of the season. Are you saying you want another bet. Let's not confuse meh's bet. First let him decline and say that Moe's Ass is a better predictor right now than his. After that, if you want to bet #4 against Moe's Ass...I got money.
Go through with what? The chart just showed you how to win the bet/// All you have to do is name the bet. My bet,,,as we first stated...is Hollingers final rankings will not be better than mine....my formula is Road Wins vs Home losses (measured by +/- just like final Wins / Losses) Are you going to renege on our bet?
I thought it was an accepted thing in this board that we don't follow nor do we believe in these BSPN power rankings.
So, right now the Rockets are 7-8 on the road. Are you saying that you predict that the Rockets will finish under .500? I'm not sure what you're trying to argue in terms of the predictive value of road W/L. Hollinger uses SOS/etc and projects a 4th seed. What are road W/L projecting with your math?
