I'm not anti-math and anti stats WHATSOEVER But some of these metrics are starting to show that they don't mean a whole lot in the big picture. (How can we forget the "90% chance to make the playoffs" formula) It seems odd, but just layman's way of gauging teams as "good" and "pretty good" to "very good" seems as accurate as anything. Its because in the NBA, 7 game playoff series decides the better teams anyway. So Rockets can be powerful for 4 weeks now, but later on against OKC and Spurs in the playoffs against the "known" teams they'll more than likely come short. If itd come across as a "10 WEEK POWER RANKING", then it makes plenty sense. But it comes across as an OVERALL power ranking. So its a bit misleading to people.
To be fair, 90% success still means 10% of implosion. IE, you expect it to not pan out 1/10 times. There was no way you could predict that Houston would completely implode in the latter part of the season given their early season play last year. This year is different as the depth of scoring options is deeper, their offensive system is faster and more lethal, AND the players are so young you have tons of up side potential. Still, there's always that 1/10 that things go horribly wrong. Such are the nature of statistics.
And least year he said we would make the playoffs too... I'm optimistic, but have been burned by him too many times.
Its just a measure of which teams are currently hot. Clippers wins 17 in a row was #1 for a while and then after two losses and two more wins are still #3? If we can win 10 in a row Im sure the Rox will #1 too.
I agree with this. This team is completely different from last year's team. This was an interesting stat from Elias Sports Bureau: "From Elias: The Rockets defeated the Bucks, 115-101 at Milwaukee. It was the 11th game this season in which Houston scored 115 or more points; no other NBA team has posted a point-total that high in more than seven games. The Rockets were one of two NBA teams that didn't score as many as 115 points in any game last season (New Orleans was the other)."
http://www.nj.com/south-jersey-sports/index.ssf/2013/01/nba_power_rankings_8.html This guy has us at 7. Says it's cuz we are 13-2 versus the Easy.
I fail to see how one team beating the odds, in this case not even big odds at 10%, means the system is bad. The Rockets once won a series down 1-3, doesn't mean it's wrong to say that a team up 3-1 in a series "likely to win." predictions predict a likelihood, not tell the future. If you expect a predictor that says90% to mean "must happen," then you are misunderstanding it's message in the first place.
Just a side note to check out Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds that's based on the rankings + strength of schedule. Rockets are projected to finish #4 in the west with a 51-31 record, 94% likely to make the playoffs. Who would've thought..
Remember last year we were like 95% likely to make the playoffs and we choked the last 10 or so games?
Different group, different results I would imagine.. Harden's consistency has me believe history won't repeat!
Except this year you have a bonified Superstar/Star level player in Harden, and multiple players of the starting 5 have reputations as 4th quarter/big game players (Harden, Lin and Parsons). Not to mention even though Houston was winning a similar number of games at this point last year, the win margins were MUCH smaller. In other words, they were sneaking out wins last year, this year they're blowing out teams and grinding out the odd win. There's a reason why a lot of analytics guys put emphasis on the margins of victory. A win is still a win, but clubbing multiple teams into submission by 10 or 20 points in multiple games says a lot more than eking out 3 point wins.
I seem to recall these already existed during the 22 game winning streak and we were #1 by the time we had one 15 in a row or so.
The Raptors are the only team in the West currently standing 8-2 in the last 10 games, and one of the only 4 in the league today. Their incessant PNRs are so effective and is what we should improved on immediately. Lin and Harden will score and assists more if they use more screens like the Raps.
The front office got tired of seeing the Rockets team being the perennial ninth in the playoff hunt for so many years. I think they had already made the decision to completely start all over again to rebuild a title contending team before the regular season end. So to tank for lottery pick was a better idea than to just hang onto the 8th seed and never going anywhere.
it's really cool that you have his stupid stat figured out...doesn't mean it's not stupid. Dude...if i came up with a stat that said we are #4 in the league...you would laugh facts are facts...and hollinger's stats are not facts. that's a fact.
no it isn't. So if I told you "according to my stats" the Rockets are #4 in the league...would you say "heypartner's stat is so cool."
