U.S. to Become World's Top Gas and Oil Producer by 2015, 2017

Dairy Ashford · Jan 3, 2013

trueroxfan said: ↑

It's not like we get the majority of our oil from the M.E., about 2/3rds comes from North America.
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True, but our usage is so continuous and robust that any supply shock from anywhere is worth accounting for and, unfortunately, strategically pre-empting.

Cohete Rojo · Jan 4, 2013

Air Langhi said: ↑

If saudi wanted to they could crash the oil market to make sure this doesn't happen.
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Old wives tale. Why would the Saudis do this and what makes you think they could?

bigtexxx · Jan 4, 2013

Mathloom said: ↑

Underlining all this is the fact that US consumes over 30% of the world's energy, with the next country consuming roughly 1/4th of that (China) and the next one 1/6th of that (Japan).

Basically it would be unsellable due to cost, so you would have to consume all your own. I'll also add that this projection is not only based on shale oil/gas, but also on alternative energy that is being developed by your government.

By virtue of being the most expensive oil to extract, the US wouldn't naturally become competitive on the global market. If the US chooses to cover its own needs with its own supplies, then demand for oil will drop sharply and therefore price will drop sharply and the US oil/gas becomes even less competitive. If it chooses to continue consuming global oil/gas, its own supplies will still be priced out of the market. The Chinas and the Indias of the world will not increase demand fast enough to make this a smooth process IMO.

I think one likely scenario which reconciles with traditional US behavior is that they will increase the cost for others. Generally speaking, the large oil producers do not discover, extract or refine much of their own oil so companies in the US and US-allies can start pushing the cost up.

If this happens, I expect a massive war. This is particularly likely since US interests in oil-producing areas will be less valuable, and NATO would have very little or nothing to do once the US becomes energy self-sufficient. Many countries would be looking at a sudden downward shift in standard of living. In my opinion it will also coincide with our next global financial crisis around that time.
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Check your economics. The majority of the US oil can be produced for <$50/bbl. That is well below today's price. Other higher cost sources will be shut down before the US sources. At delivered prices the US domestic supplies are very attractive.

bigtexxx · Jan 4, 2013

Air Langhi said: ↑

If saudi wanted to they could crash the oil market to make sure this doesn't happen.
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They could depress prices for sure since they have spare capacity that can be extracted cheaply, but they won't since their budget requires oil somewhere north of $80-90/bbl. Their leadership can't risk social unrest at home.

Mathloom · Jan 6, 2013

bigtexxx said: ↑

Check your economics. The majority of the US oil can be produced for <$50/bbl. That is well below today's price. Other higher cost sources will be shut down before the US sources. At delivered prices the US domestic supplies are very attractive.
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Define "produced". Does this mean found, extracted and refined? Even assuming $50, that is among the highest in the world among major oil producers.

GCC oil is going to get cheaper to refine (building large refineries at the moment to reduce reliance on foreign companies) and costs under $10 to extract. I think at the moment production ranges between $25 and $40.

For the purposes of domestic useage though, it will certainly be worth it for the US. Cost of delivery and maintenance of military bases around large oil fields (including NATO) will drop.

OrangeRowdy95 · Jan 8, 2013

Porter Stansberry breaks down why the coming oil/shale boom and energy independence will thrust an Obama crony (Biden, Holder, etc) into Presidency in 2016.

www.obamathirdterm.com

Classic · Jan 9, 2013

What will this do for our GDP?

Z. Shauk said:

OIL PRODUCTION TO GROW AT FASTEST RATE EVER

1/8/13

Driven by the shale boom, the United States in 2014 will hit its highest daily oil production level since 1988 and will grow oil output at the highest rate ever, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted Tuesday.

U.S. daily oil production, which averaged 6.4 million barrels a day in 2012, will surge 23 percent to average 7.9 million barrels a day in 2014, the administration said.

The daily production rate will jump 900,000 barrels between 2012 and 2013, a record for growth in a single year, EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a conference call with reporters. The previous record of 800,000 barrels per day was set a year ago and was the largest one-year jump since 1951. Oil was first produced in the United States in 1859.

“That is the largest single-year growth in U.S. production all the way back to the drake oil well in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1859,” Sieminski said. “That is pretty impressive.”

While the administration is confident in its predictions, Sieminski said any regulatory changes that affect production of oil and gas from shale could change the outlook.

“If there were to be changes associated with hydraulic fracturing, which is the basis for the growth in natural gas and oil, that would raise costs in that area that could have some impact,” Sieminski said.

The trend of production growth will come along with a drop in oil prices that is expected to bring gasoline prices down for consumers, the administration said.

Prices are expected to drop from an average of $3.63 for a gallon of regular in 2012 to an average of $3.34 in 2014, according to the government projections.

link in article:
Read more: Energy predictions see a big future

Natural gas, on the other hand, will continue to face low prices because of large quantities in surplus and slow moving demand.

Natural gas prices averaged about $4.00 per million British thermal units in 2011 and fell to an average of $2.74 in 2012 amid large oversupplies of the resource, the agency said. Prices are expected to rise to an average of $3.74 in 2013 and $3.90 in 2014, according to the projections.

That would leave natural gas prices well below the levels that producers like Chesapeake Energy Corp. say they are hoping for to help fuel production growth and profits.

“I think the industry has said that the number’s probably north of $5 before gas plays generate the same kind of returns that you can get from oil around $90,” Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon said in a conference call in August.

World oil prices are expected to fall in the coming years, the administration predicted.

The price of Brent crude, used as a benchmark for world oil, averaged $112 per barrel in 2012 and will fall to an average of $105 in 2013 and $99 in 2014, the EIA said.

FROM:
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/01/08/us-oil-production-to-surge-23-over-2-years-government-says/
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Mr. Clutch · Jan 9, 2013

Classic said: ↑

What will this do for our GDP?
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Watch Promised Land. This is just pollution.

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