Suppose team A plays 18 home games and 12 road games, and it wins 2/3 of each. And, now, suppose team B plays 18 road games and 12 home games and it wins 2/3 of each. By just taking an average, both teams rate the same (67% W-L%). If we go by Road Wins, Home Losses, team A's W-L% is 57% while team B's W-L% is 75%. While on one hand it makes sense for both teams to be rated equally, my intuition says that the team that has played more road games has an advantage. Despite them both winning the same percentage of road and home games, history tells us that over time they will likely win more home games than road games. So while Road Wins, Home Losses likely exaggerates this point, I would expect team B (over time) to have a better record than team A. Yes, but I think he's assume that the home court advantage is constant for every team. Actually, I think for some teams HCA is a bigger factor. So, while his model probably adjusts for the fact that we have had more home games, it may not go far enough if its the case that the Rockets (being young) will benefit more from playing at home than most teams.
1. I recall that someone did a study on the value of HCA for each team. IIRC, the result was that only two teams have a more significant HCA than the rest of the league-- Denver and Utah, the two high altitude teams. 2. Regarding your scenario on road wins vs. home losses: Few teams actually have equal win % at home and on the road. Most have a significantly higher win % at home. A more common scenario would involve two teams each with 60% home win % and 33% road win % but one has played 10 home games (6-4) and 3 (1-2) road games and the other played 5 home games (3-2) and 6 road games (2-4). Is there any reason we expect either team's future win %s at home and on the road to be naturally different than what they are now? 3. Is there any data showing that, for a young team (or for a team with whatever qualities that the Rockets have), being at home is a bigger deal than it is for an older team (or for a team with whatever quality that is dissimilar to that of the Rockets)?
^ y'all really think you have found a better measure of current ranking than Road Wins vs Home losses. Y'all just want to apply math so much you miss the obvious Seriously? You do know that Hollinger maintains a CONSTANT is his measure. That CONSTANT it to correct himself over time. Road Wins vs Home losses needs no constant. It mathematically converges on real Playoff rankings....you know that, right? There is nothing better. Rockets are a #10 seed in the West right now...according to Road Wins v Home losses. Holinger has them ranked at #5 for all teams. come on Carl Herrera....don't support math that says the Rockets are 5th in the league....do the simple math.
Basic Win/Loss record also "converges" to final win/loss record, does it not? That's not the point. The point is which metric is the best predictor for the team's win/loss record over the remaining games. And I think CH makes a good point about Road Win, Home Loss being skewed because teams haven't played an equal number of home and road games.
Every team's ranking at the end of the year in Wins vs Losses also equals their team ranking in Road Wins vs Home Losses....It it pure math. There is no other measure throughout the year that actually converges on reality like Road Wins v Home Losses, must. Have you actually done this math.
Rankings are nothing but fun topics for conversation. Conventional wisdom gets thrown out the window with such a young team anyway because they are improving through out the course of a season. Likewise, teams like OKC, SAS and NYK are not going to experience the same type of improvement due to their age and experience. The question with a team like the Rockets is are they improving and how much. They are 3 - 3 on the road in December with wins in NYK, Chi and Minny. Those are solid to very good road wins and show a very real improvement from November / October when they were 2 - 5. It's way too early to judge the Rockets or even to say they will be a bad road team. We will know a lot more after January.
Exactly....and Road Wins v Home Losses in fact converges on reality and also is the best measure throughout the year. It is a fact. And you are trying to tell me Hollinger ranking us at #5 is more fact. This is just bull****. Road Wins v Home Losses is the best measure. Show me otherwise...or stop defending Hollinger.
correct...I'm just saying that Road Wins vs Home loses ranks us #10 in the west...or are we better like #5 like Hollinger's math.
A few points: 1. I am NOT saying that the Rockets are in fact the 5th best team in the league now. In fact, my last post was not even about the Hollinger Ranking-- it is about the value of Road Win/Home Loss % at this relatively early point in the season. I know that some of you were arguing over the validity of the Hollinger Ranking (and that the Hollinger Ranking is the topic of this thread), but, to be clear, my post was not about this topic but was a reaction only to the part of durvasa's post regarding Road Win/Home Loss%. 2. It is true that Road Win/Home Loss% converges to the final standing at the end of the season, but (A) we are not close to the end of the season right now, (B) this early in the season, the disparity among teams' # of road games and home games makes it a fairly unreliable measure (i.e. we have not had enough time for the "converging" to happen yet), and (C) the measure I proposed (the average of home win% and road win %) also converge to the final win % at the end of the season.
I mean while I am glad the Rockets are finally getting some love, and they are playing like a top 10 team right now, even statistics can't convince me that the Rockets are the 5th best team in the NBA. However, all of my Mavericks friends have conceded that the Rockets are for real, and they can run any team off the court in the NBA if they are clicking on all cylinders.
and you make my point.....There is no better measure throughout the year ...and even then it is Pt Deferential only...like that is better than Road Win/Home Lose % Show me a better measure. Do it!!! Really? you actually believe a Hollinger stat that is never accurate until the end of the year...when mine is actually still more accurate that his....throughout the year Isn't every statistical analysis supposed to be based on one litmus test Occam's Razor r e a l l y .... you think Hollinger ranking us at #5 in the league is more accurate....please don't say this! Because you will be wrong.
Not sure what it is you think I'm defending, when in multiple posts I pointed out factors which I thought were relevant to our long term prospects this season and which weren't accounted for in Hollinger's formula. Also, Hollinger's power ranking is meant to rating the level at which a team is playing currently. Its main purpose, I think, is for simulation purposes, which is what drives his playoff projections. His simulation projects us to most likely win 49 games (meaning 60% of the remaining games), which seems too optimistic. I think we'll end up closer to .500, but 45 wins or so is definitely within reach. The most obvious problem with Road Wins v Home Losses is it doesn't account for quality of opponent faced. So, while it might be an improvement over looking at W-L record, I think we can do better.
Honestly, it's hard to make an argument that we're not the 5th best team...not by this analysis...but, from what I have seen of late...and am quite stunned and have trouble accepting to be honest...is how prolific our offense is. Lin & Harden have proved to be a very deadly combination. I thought it would take years to evolve, not months. Furthermore, there's so much room for improvement there. What teams are definitively better? Miami, OKC, SA. Those three for sure. I think L.A. Clips are better. I do think the Lakers will be better once they figure things out. Denver is good too, but hard to see them ranked so high. And you can make a case for Memphis but it's hard to tell if they can adjust to our playing style. So all in all, thats only 7 or 8 teams I can see as being better than us. That's remarkable considering the age of this team, the time it's been together, and frankly, where we were in the offseason. Just incredible. I think Asik and Parsons have been big surprises...but so far, everyone has exceeded my expectations with perhaps JLin being the exception where he is about where i expected. Truly remarkable. McHale does deserve some credit here.
1. Can you show why Road Win vs. Home Loss % at this point in the season is better than (Road Win % + Home Win%)/2? 2. Hollinger's ranking is not ever supposed to reflect final standing-- in fact, no statistical "power ranking" is. This is because a statistical "power ranking" (like basketball-reference.com's SRS system) reflects a team's hypothetical margin of victory or defeat vs. an average NBA team (and some adjust to so that this hypothetical game is played under neutral conditions). This is why they add a measure of strength of schedule as a part of the formula. However, as Ed Kupfer notes, teams do not have equal strengths of schedule at the end of the season-- for one thing, teams in the East are going to play a much easier schedule overall than teams in the West do. So, a Western team and the Eastern team with the same "power ranking" are most likely going to end up with very different records.
What you are doing is defending a stupid mathematical theory...by still implying his #5 ranking is not laughable. Go ahead and stick to defending a mathematically bad idea. good for you. His #5 ranking is laughable.....Really,,,,you want to defend this against one of the most superior mathematicians on this site? Hollinger's Power Ranking is stupid. Occam's Razor.
I think we have to keep in mind that this team isn't the same team that started the season. They are playing a far different kind of ball now. Offensively, the team is beginning to click. with a ways to still go. So I think our record is not reflective of where this team is at. Time will tell if we winning at a 60% clip then we know.
Uh, I am the one posting the superior stat, because it is always true by FACT throught all NBA history. It is up to you to prove me otherwise. Don't forget your place in math.
I completely agree. The argument here is Carl Herrara and durvasa actually believe Hollingner's mathematical take that we are closer to a #5 team in the league vs a #10 team in the West.
1. As I pointed out, a much better way to do it is to do it by the way I think Ed Kupfer did it: assign a value to what being at home is worth, and having rest is worth, etc. and adjust the margin of each game accordingly. 2. HCA, rest, etc. may indeed be a bigger factor for some teams than for others. If you can in fact discern such a pattern, then you can apply individual adjustments to each team. For what it's worth, HOU's difference in Home Win % vs. Road Win % is 28.2%, which ranks right in the middle of the league (14th highest overall, the average is 24.5%). So, there is nothing to indicate that HOU is an especially good home team or bad road team compared to any other team with around a 17-14 record. 3. I ran a couple of simple projections based on the team's current standing: * If the Rockets continues winning at its current 54.8% pace (17-14), they are projected to end up with 44.9 wins. * If the Rockets continues to win 66.7% of its home games and 38.5% of its road games, they are projected to end up with 43.1 wins. * Based on the 66.7% home win% and 38.5% road win %, had the Rockets played an equal number of home and road games (leaving out other factors, like rest and quality of opponents), the Rockets would be roughly 16-15. By this measure, the home/road disparity, by itself, really hasn't made the Rockets look significantly better or worse than they should be. 4. The things that are making the Rockets look really good in most type of statistical power ranking are (1) they've had a large # of blowout wins against a relatively smaller number of blowout losses, so their average margin of victory is higher, and (2) they have played against mostly high quality teams. If one wants to argue that a power ranking of the Rockets overrates them, one really needs to point out why (a) having blowout wins/losses as oppose to close ones doesn't reflect upon team quality, and (2) having performed well against quality teams as oppose to against cupcake teams doesn't reflect upon team quality.
I think we might be a number 6 team...so Hollingner is not too far off. I think Miami is coasting, and that the Lakers are still figuring it out. So those two teams are ahead of us. We are either 6 or 7, depends on Denver. So they are right, we are closer to 5 than 10. And I do think we will win 49 games if we stay healthy. In fact, we could hit 50. There's a lot of basketball left. 17 wins with 51 to go? I think this team can finish 33 and 18. Absolutely. If healthy, absolutely.
