His power ranking isn't based on his personal judgment, but rather based on a mathematical formula that he came up with and gets applied to the results of each game as the season goes forward. So, Hollinger doesn't have to do any work to keep the ranking updated. Also, for what it's worth, Basketball-Reference.com's "SRS" (Simple Rating System) mathematical power ranking formula (which is based on margin of victory/defeat and strength of schedule) have the Rockets ranked 7th overall. http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013.html Not really surprising. This is what happens under the formula when you are on a 5 game winning streak against generally decent teams and win 4 of these games in blowouts. Hollinger's formula is slightly more favorable to HOU than B-R.com's at the moment because, I think, he weighs a team's result in the most recent 10 games more than games earlier in the season whereas B-R.com weighs each game equally. In any case, my question is whether the Rockets are simply a "hot" team or do the recent games reflect their development into a "good" team. If the Rockets are in fact somewhat close to being a realistic "contender," I wonder if this changes the front office's thinking in whether to bring immediate help for the team (perhaps trading for a Gasol, Nene or Danny Granger level player) vs. waiting until the offseason or next season to do so (taking improbably shots at Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, accumulating more trade assets before using them).
I think people are overrating the next three games. We'll split the next 2 and the Hawks at home aren't that tough.
1. Clippers 2. Heat 3. Spurs 4. Thunder 5. Grizzlies 6. Rockets 7. Warriors 8. Knicks 9. Lakers 10. Bulls (no Rose)
Another interesting tidbit. David Berri over at Wages of Wins is currently placing us as the 5th best team in the West and projecting us for the 6th seed in the West, as 10th best team in the NBA and 46 wins. And that was BEFORE the Minnesota game... http://wagesofwins.com/2012/12/26/nba-power-rankings-for-the-2012-13-season-volume-2/ Other stuff to note. According to David Berri - we've had the 4th toughest schedule in the NBA - our remaining schedule is the 6th toughest in the NBA In his words... He also had us as a 53.3%-46.7% underdog to Minnesota. Nothing like defying expectations. :grin: As for SAS and OKC ... 77.7%-22.3% in favor of Parker and company. 66.5% to 33.5% in favor of OKC.
i look at it like this. we have a legit star. we have the best player out of the rockets and grizzlies's rosters. san antonio right now only has one star. we have the best player of the lakers' and rockets' roster. yes better than dwight and the showbe. asik is an unreal steal and parsons is another great morey draft pick. i am on the high side of expectations. some of you guys who don't think this team is a playoff team, i don't know what you are watching. this isn't fool's gold.
Just to give us another perspective, Sagarin's rankings have us at #8. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1213.htm I feel the Warriors a bit overrated since their SOS for their last 10 games is .398, which is weak. Of course, they could prove me wrong by going .500 thru their tough stretch. Doubt it tho.
I don't think so. It's gotta be one of the toughest three game stretches we have this year maybe even the toughest. Playing the Spurs and OKC back to back then the Hawks is about as tough as it gets. The Hawks are playing well right now too.
This. The entire Rockets team was unconscious (not in a good way) last night and still won at Minny, albeit with Harden's heroics, but still NOT on any lucky shots (just simple drives to the hoop). The only risk is injuries.
Agreed. This is a nightmare stretch, and if we only win 1 out of 3 I won't be surprised. I just hope we manage at least that.
That's interesting! The last time Wages of Wins did one of these, the Rockets were projected at 7th seed, so that's actually improvement. :grin: Something that I found interesting/funny is that the way he broke down the SoS interesting, because he clearly showed how he ranked the difficulty of Schedule, versus difficulty of Opponent. Before this stretch, the Rockets had an average Schedule difficulty (15th), but difficult Opponents (5th); the upcoming Schedule the Rockets have is the hardest of all 30 teams (1st), even though the Opponents are only a little above avg (12th). Additional interesting thing is their Age Is Just A Variable post, where they do the math to show that players generally peak at around 26~27, and then decline after 30. Which most people know via eyeball test but it's fun to see the graphs/numbers. Given all that, it isn't surprising that Les said that the 'window' for seeing if this current plan was working out is "2 years", that should be about when the average age of the core hits 26.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013.html#all_team_stats Rockets have had the third-hardest strength of schedule and rank 7th in point differential.
Yes, good take breaking down "schedule" vs. "opponent." HOU has played a lot of good teams but hasn't had too many road games or back-to-backs. They will be getting those later in the season. Also, I think they have had a good number of opponents being on b2bs. Honestly, I think having the "rest days" early in the season helps this team a good deal-- with the Harden deal coming down late, they really could use the practice time. Also, note that the NBA schedule can be quite a bit harder on some teams than others over the course of an 82game season. Remember, you play your division 4 times a year, your non-division conference opponents 3 or 4 times a year, and the other conference 2 times a year. So, Western teams, especially those in the SW division, tend to get tougher opponents than, say, those in the Central division. Crappy teams also tend to get tougher opponents because, for example, New Orleans doesn't get to play against their own crappy self like Houston does. Finally, only the marquee teams get to play often on Thursdays (matter of contract with TNT) so while their schedules are spread over 7 potential days a week, other teams' are spread over 6 potential days a week. I think this means that marquee teams end up with less b2bs and end up playing against more opponents on the 2nd night of b2bs.
Sorry i wasn't following the Rockets last year. What happened? I think we're only getting better and not the other way round.
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings Currently 5th, think we may be able to get to number 4, but there's no way we could leapfrog San Antonio, OKC, or LA
