question: have you looked into RAPM, which is basically adjusted +/- with regression analysis. Upshot is that you have the player analyzed as if playing against a blank 5 opponents with a blank 4 teammates, and the variables in +/- induced by teammates and opponents is cancelled out. Quick explanation of RAPM. Longer explanation. Current RAPM of Houston Rockets. In offense; Harden is +4.48, Lin is +1.23. Delfino is +0.56, everyone else is negative. The biggest negatives are Asik (-1.89) and Patterson (-2.15). In defense, the only two positives are Asik (+4.28) and Delfino (+0.91). ...yeah I don't know what's up with Delfino, but at least he's always a mild positive. Worst for D +/- is actually Douglas at -2.14. The starters tend to be mildly bad (less than -1) and the bench in general seem to be worse (more than -1), with the exception of Greg Smith who appears better for team D than either Patterson or Morris.
When the coach pulls you everytime you play poorly and not let you play through it to make it right, you're gonna have bad +/- numbers! If I am pulled after 2 strikes before I get to have my full at bat, I can not hit that possible home run. If Barry Bonds was pulled out after 1 strike every time, he would not have the career that he's had. The coaches got to let him have his full at bat.
You remind me of one of those teachers going into ghetto areas trying to educate a bunch of kids society gave up on. This isn't a movie durvasa, you can't save them all.
Alright. Do you have any games in mind in which this happened? If the lead increases when Lin is sitting, I'm not seeing how that matches the premise that the lead tends to decrease when Lin sits. It would be interesting to see how often a lead built up with Lin on the floor and it decreased when he went to the bench. The game flow charts in the popcorn machine link in my signature could help support or refute such a claim, if any of you guys really want to check up on this (if it was me making the claim I would probably do so myself). Your response, by the way, makes much more sense to me than whatever point SirKev was making which still is unclear to me. You're saying that instead of looking at all minutes, we should focus on those stints where there was a lead built up by Lin and he went to the bench. That's a valid point, though throwing out all the instances where we're outscored with Lin and then close the gap/take the lead without Lin seems a little skewed. But whatever. I'm just wondering why the person who made the initial claim or the people who are rushing to defend it aren't the ones doing the fact-checking.
Yes. It says Lin is a better player than Douglas (well xRAPM says this, which also incorporates box score statistics), and I happen to agree with that. So do our coaches, otherwise Lin wouldn't be getting the majority of the minutes. That's not the point. If you go through the thread of conversation (click the little red arrows next our names in the quote box), you'll see the context in which I originally posted those stats. Despite my best efforts, a lot of people seem to be confused on this.
thanks durvasa for doing all this , However what are u trying to prove with the data? Comparing TD vs JLin, on Point Guard position? or that Sampson as head coach's impact on Jlin's performance? Hasn't the Team Shifted their philosophy and opted for a faster pace offense? Do you think that's a good idea?
If Lin is indeed being pulled quickly in those situations, not sure how it can be argued definitively that its helping or hurting his +/- numbers overall. It depends on whether you believe he'll make up the deficit with more minutes or whether the deficit will continue to increase. I mean, one can easily argue this the other way. If the scoring margin isn't moving in a player's favor because of a bad matchup or he's just struggling that night, then pulling that player out quickly in that case can help save his +/- numbers from getting worse.
Actually, when Douglas waves his arms he is playing defense. Kind of like what stats are for, defending and asserting arguments. If the stats show that Lin is always the best player on the court, and always has the highest +/-, would there be an argument right now amongst you Lin fans that the stats are misleading? I'm pretty sure most of you would start going off about how "LOH" are ignoring the truth and spreading lies even when the stats say otherwise. For the record, I'm pretty sure durvasa has no agenda. He is a modest poster that likes to bring on realistic views on the team, and he backs his assertions with facts. If you disagree otherwise, post your own statistical analysis instead of "my eyeballs say otherwise". DD would fit right in with you guys.
I think the only way you could prove this either way is to look at a particular game play by play. I think it's a waste of time since +/- is a stat with little value, but I'll give you and example. Look at the Chicago game. Asik was +41 and scored 20pts. Parsons was only +15 and scored 23pts. Without context +/- is meaningless.
Recap: (1) I said that I believed Lin isn't so established as a star in this league that he should automatically deserve playing time over his backup in crunch time despite how the game was going until then and him possibly struggling. The only player who I think deserves that sort of benefit of the doubt is Harden. Not Parsons. Not Asik. And not Lin (yet). (2) Someone retorted, essentially, that Lin should get that sort of respect, in part because if you go through all the games when Lin sits we tend to lose ground. (3) I responded that, in fact, if you go through all the games, most of the time when Lin isn't on the floor we outscore the other team. I provided the +/- stats from which this fact is easily observed, a fact which seemed to me to directly contradict the statement he made. I also made sure, anticipating the backlash, to clarify that the stats does not mean Lin is worse than his backup (he isn't). (4) A bunch of posters question the use of +/- stats and how they don't prove that Lin is worse than Douglas and how its dumb to look at +/- without adjusting for all the other variables. All of this is of course beside the point. I'm not arguing that +/- stats prove Lin should play less, but rather disputing a particular claim someone else made that can be verified through +/- stats. See the difference? To answer your last question, I fully support the team trying to push the pace and get a more balanced attack between Lin and Harden compared to what happened in November. I want to see both players succeed.
To answer your last question, I fully support the team trying to push the pace and get a more balanced attack between Lin and Harden compared to what happened in November. I want to see both players succeed. I think the current guard rotation is fine.
I get the feeling that you are hedging and defending Sampson's run as head coach. I think it's going to difficult(for now), since the Rockets fortunes are dramatically changed since Coach Mchale's return. If anything we should compare the stats between the 2 coaches. But frankly I find this exercise pointless, cause things are looking brighter for the rocket's back court now. Not point picking on old wounds.
Llin already be proved his Mr. crutch last year. Coach d'antonio and Woody gave Lin the freedom and he did all 25 games for Knicks in front NY everybody. That is fact... No stats can be above that. If something Stats show right now, please ask current coach not about Lin.
I agree that its probably pointless. A lot of people here are convinced that Sampson really hurt Lin's production. I'm skeptical of this, but I can't offer a strong opinion either way because (as I wrote earlier) there were a number of games I didn't watch fully. I'll just make the point that it is not at all atypical for young players to go through slumps and streaks. It happened with Dragic and Lowry and Brooks, and that was without a coaching change in the middle of the season. Fans have a tendency to try to blame the struggles of their favorite player on coaching or teammates or refs or anything but that player just having a bad stretch. I suppose its a sort of defensive mechanism against people who are being excessively hateful towards that player. I certainly hope no one construes my posts in that manner. I want Lin to succeed, and I'm rooting for him not just because he's a Rocket but because I like his personal story a lot as well.
yes , i agree . I find it strange when he goes passive and indecisive. Any explanation? Is he over thinking?
As I see Lin as a net positive, I think he will overcome it or least should be given the chance to do so. That is unless the coaches have already made up their mind about Lin's ceiling and don't want to waste time or possibly gamble wins on Lin becoming a net positive. Of course, the opposite can also be argued. I just happen to disagree.
