its not only about the pass to the open man defensive rebound = opp team cannot have an extra possession and score again defensive rebound = outlet pass which leads the fastbreak for easy 2 or 3 points (and 1) offensive rebound = extra possession which may lead to points or another extra possession offensive rebound = may also lead to tip in for easy 2 or 3 points (and 1) how does jeremy rank in apg? howbout turnovers per game?
I agree TD fits better when Harden is handling the ball. But most time when we benched Lin, that's when the opposite teams have their scrubs on the court. Harden, TD, Smith can kill anybody's backups with exception of OKC and SAS. The only game I agree benching Lin in 4th qtr was that Lakers game because TD just couldn't miss. And I think +- is also result of coaching. Harden is much more efficient shooter and better slasher. The first couple of games worked fine when Lin had 7 or 8 assists and Harden scored 40 pnts. I didn't understand why coach changed the system. Now we're winning again with Lin as the primary ball handler. Granted, sometimes we do need Harden ISO when we need to control the clock in the last few seconds like the last game. But the team evidently better now without Harden running the point and Lin as offensive liability.
I took durvasa's data, looked at the difference of on vs off the court for Lin, and added a trend line. It seems to show that at least directionally Lin has gone from being a drag to a net contributor for the team. I think this also shows how noisy +/- is as an analytics tool as there are so many variable at play.
You can rationalize all you want. There would be no convincing. What you said was important and all. But, you take Lin out, this team is in trouble. Download the games, watch it again. All the games are available for download by the way. When Lin sits, the other team comes back. You can rationalize it any way you want.
BTW, did you just take my quote out of context! I know I wrote more than that! Meaning that I said a whole lot more, but you picked one line out like 7 sentences and carp on that.
Qualified PG 17th tied with Goran Dragic. All guard - could find just PG Turnover TOVPG All guard starting over 20 games Lin 34th Harden 44th 1 Willie Green 0.6 2 Thabo Sefolosha 0.8 3 Jason Richardson 0.8 4 Jason Kidd 1 5 Tony Allen 1 6 Lance Stephenson 1.1 7 Randy Foye 1.1 8 Jason Terry 1.2 9 Wesley Matthews 1.4 10 Aaron Brooks 1.5 11 Bradley Beal 1.6 12 Luke Ridnour 1.7 13 Kirk Hinrich 1.7 14 Mario Chalmers 1.7 15 Klay Thompson 1.8 16 George Hill 1.8 17 DeMar DeRozan 1.8 18 Joe Johnson 1.9 19 Dion Waiters 2 20 Tony Parker 2.1 21 Kemba Walker 2.2 22 Evan Turner 2.2 23 Chris Paul 2.2 24 Alonzo Gee 2.2 25 Goran Dragic 2.2 26 Arron Afflalo 2.3 27 Raymond Felton 2.4 28 Dwyane Wade 2.6 29 Brandon Jennings 2.6 30 Mo Williams 2.7 31 Jeff Teague 2.7 32 Ty Lawson 2.7 33 Jameer Nelson 2.8 34 Jeremy Lin 2.8 35 Mike Conley 2.8 36 Deron Williams 3 37 Damian Lillard 3 38 Monta Ellis 3 39 Stephen Curry 3 40 O.J. Mayo 3.1 41 Brandon Knight 3.1 42 Russell Westbrook 3.4 43 Greivis Vasquez 3.4 44 James Harden 3.6 45 Kobe Bryant 3.6 46 Rajon Rondo 3.7 47 Jrue Holiday 3.7
Raw numbers can be quite misleading due to usage rate and minutes played. It's much better to use turnover rate, which adjust for the above issues. FWIW, here's a list of guards(not just PGs) this year who've played more than 500 minutes and their TO%. Lin looks very bad. While Harden has moved from being bad to middle of the pack. So Harden has improved. Lin has not. Turnover% Ranking of guards from basketball-reference
Remember when the Lakers were up by a lot and they benched Lin in the 4th? Can you remind me how that turned out?
So the conclusion I get from reading the last few posts are, 1. Raw stats that show Jeremy Lin to be a poor-shooting(until recently) high-TO player that can't space the floor well... should not be used against him because doesn't measure Lin's intangibles that make his teammates better. 2. +/-, which shows that the Rockets are better when Douglas is on the court instead of Lin, is also useless because 28 games is not enough to make a determination. 3. And actual game watching shows many times the Rockets starters play badly, get behind, only to see the score become close again... that's irrelevant just because. The only logical conclusion is that no matter the evidence against Lin being more than just an average guy, those evidences are all incorrect and the truth is Lin kicks ass.
Are you guys saying that the statistics tell you that Lin is better off the floor than on? If not, are you saying the statistics that you are using are worthless? I don't get it. The bottom line considering the title of this thread is we should develop trust and help Lin achieve his potential by putting him in position to do so, i.e. run more pnrs and screens for Lin and keep him in during crunch time or trade him if he's a net negative as the statistics on TOs and +/-s suggest as you guys see it. The coaches aren't too high on him either. I think what some of you guys think of him is what Sampson and Mchale think of him. I'm not saying its definitively wrong and that I'm right. It's just that I disagree and it's frustrating. And please don't get me wrong, Lin is not performing to the potential that he's shown last year and in flashes this year either. Not by a long shot. And the excuses of blaming the coaches only goes so far. He seems to have been content just living up to the coaches' low expectations of him and I'm disappointed in him for that. I hate the "he's got a lot to learn, but he works hard we love him and he'll get it eventually" bs. I want to hear them say that Lin needs to do better and do what we've seen him capable of doing. Dudes scoring 38 points, leading fast breaks, and helping all his teams to improved WL records all his life without a left hand worth crap, being slow, being to prone, no shot, no defense, and no handles barely being able to cross the half court line with any kind of pressure. If he overcomes some of those, he shoul be scoring 38 a night.
Meh, so your position is Lin is not a good basketball player and generally a net negative on this team. And that your logic, your basketball sense and your ability to analyze basketball statistics is telling you clearly that TD is better for the team than Lin according to the hard data that you deem important. Am I right? Lin's bball game consisting of high bball iq, unselfishness, and the other intangibles you laughingly dismissed are detrimental to this team and TD should be playing over Lin during crunch time, right? It doesn't matter that the stats that you depend on can be affected by the fact that he was not playing pg but rather as a spot up 3 shooter, right? Your logic is not logical to me. I don't get your point. If you are arguing the above points, we will never have a great basketball conversation ever because my basketball universe is diametrically opposed to yours, in which TD is better for your team than Lin. I mean, I guess if that's what your logic tells you. It's all good. As for my dumb logic, I just think Lin's going to be a great player and he needs to be developed. Statistics, good or bad be damned. Just because. To give an example you can relate to, I don't care how many TOs, forced shots, isos, Harden has had either he's a superstar in the making. BSPN could spout all the stats in the world why Westbrook is better, but they can kiss my ass. Jus because.
From SBNation's NBA's 15 unforgettable characters from 2012: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2012/12...le-characters-2012-dwight-howard-javale-mcgee
Just take a look at the formula of TOV% : TOV% = 100 * TO / ( FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO ) Players can simply improve their TOV% by jacking up bad shots. No stat is perfect. Period.
The +/- stat is SO misleading. I think Parsons has the worst on the team and he's clearly not a net negative on this team.
Great argument. Jeremy Lin is great because you say he is. You are right. I have no counter to that. You win.
