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Austin Rivers: Worst season ever?

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by J.R., Dec 26, 2012.

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J.R. Member

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...26/nba-austin-rivers-having-worst-season-ever

Thanks to the Chris Paul trade, the New Orleans Hornets joined the Portland Trail Blazers as one of two teams with a pair of picks in the lottery of last June's NBA draft. After taking Kentucky forward Anthony Davis No. 1 overall, the Hornets were also able to add another top one-and-done prospect, Duke guard Austin Rivers, with the 10th pick.

While Davis and Rivers were once considered perhaps the top two prospects in the country coming out of high school, they have had very different professional debuts. When healthy, Davis has lived up to the hype he generated as a National Player of the Year and national champion during his lone college season; he leads all rookies in PER. By contrast, Rivers has struggled with the transition to the NBA, in several ways -- that includes making only 34.6 percent of his shot attempts inside the 3-point line.

In fact, Rivers is on track to make dubious history during his rookie campaign. Two months into the season, Rivers projects to rate nearly seven wins worse than a replacement-level player by my player metric, which would be the worst WARP score in the 34 seasons on record, starting with 1979-80, the first NBA season with the 3-point line.

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WORST WARP SCORES Player Season Team Win % MPG WARP Austin Rivers (projected) 2012-13 NOH .271 28.2 -6.9 Jason Collins 2006-07 NJN .250 23.1 -6.5 Adam Morrison 2006-07 CHA .300 29.9 -5.8 Michael Curry 2001-02 DET .273 23.3 -5.7 Desmond Mason 2006-07 NOH .313 34.3 -5.7 Desmond Mason 2005-06 NOH .292 30.1 -5.6 Trenton Hassell 2002-03 CHI .288 24.4 -5.3 Calbert Cheaney 2002-03 UTA .309 29.0 -5.3 Charlie Scott 1979-80 DEN .287 27.0 -5.2 Juwan Howard 1999-00 WAS .333 35.5 -5.2 Dickey Simpkins 1999-00 CHI .268 23.9 -5.2

WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player, because normally it is measuring a player's positive impact. But in the case of Rivers, it is measuring a player's negative impact on his team's efforts.

Like its baseball cousins, the various types of "WAR" that figured so prominently in this year's AL MVP debate, WARP is a value statistic that includes two components -- per-minute performance (measured by player win percentage) and minutes played. For players who rate better than replacement, more minutes translate into more value. That relationship flips for ineffective players such as Rivers, who play worse than the type of player a team could invite to training camp or call up from the D-League.

So a "replacement player" is what, exactly? It's the type of player who is easy to find when a team needs a replacement. To find a good example, look no further than Hornets guard Brian Roberts, who went undrafted out of Dayton before starring overseas and signing with the Hornets after a successful stint in summer league. Roberts has been far more effective than Rivers as both a scorer and distributor while making the NBA's minimum salary.

Of course, to build a historically negative WARP rating, a player has to be on the court in the first place. Most of the leaderboard is made up of defensive specialists whose value is not reflected by their individual statistics. Collins, for example, is one of the players most underrated by advanced box score stats.

Beyond that, the list is filled out by players who were overexposed on terrible teams and rookies whose potential demanded playing time that their performance did not yet justify. Rivers qualifies on both counts. With Eric Gordon out of the lineup, the 5-22 Hornets have few good alternatives in the backcourt despite Roberts' surprising performance. Backup wing Xavier Henry has been nearly as ineffective. The situation will change when Gordon returns to action after being cleared to practice over the weekend.

Still, Monty Williams will surely find regular playing time for Rivers, who appears to be a major part of New Orleans' future by virtue of the high pick the team used to draft him. Williams indicated as much to the New Orleans Times-Picayune earlier this month, saying, "I'm going to play him through his mistakes and it's going to help our program two or three years from now."

Because this Hornets season is going nowhere, the more important question is what Rivers' slow start says about his long-term development. Despite the cautionary example of Adam Morrison (see chart), the only rookie currently in the WARP bottom 10, a poor first season isn't necessarily a death knell for a player's career. Allan Houston, Chris Kaman and Glen Rice all developed into All-Stars after rating at least three wins below replacement as rookies. And none of those players was anywhere near as young or inexperienced as Rivers at the time.

Still, the more common outcome is that even those ineffective rookies who go on to long careers tend to never rate well statistically. Jeff Green, who had -4.1 WARP during his first season with the Seattle SuperSonics, is a good example. As much as young players tend to improve, the shape of their performance usually doesn't change, and Rivers' volume shooting has always played better among scouts than by the numbers.

Furthermore, the troubling aspect of Rivers' play this season is that it can't really be called a fluke. In fact, his per-minute win percentage (.271) is nearly exactly what his translated college stat line indicated (.274). Frankly, there is no track record of Rivers playing an efficient brand of basketball against high-level competition. He was one of the least valuable NBA players during the preseason, and even shot just 4-of-19 from the field in two summer-league games before suffering an ankle injury.

Supporters will point to Rivers' shot selection as the culprit for his poor percentages, but Hoopdata.com shows that the larger issue has been his inability to finish at the rim, where Rivers is making just 42.9 percent of his attempts (the league average is 63.9 percent). Though this will improve as Rivers learns to navigate rangy NBA shot-blockers, finishing is typically a skill players bring with them to the league. Bradley Beal, another one-and-done guard who has struggled at times during his rookie season, is shooting 61.0 percent at the rim.

Moreover, Rivers has yet to show the kind of dynamic playmaking the Hornets hoped would allow him to transition to point guard in the NBA. His assist rate is only slightly better than average for a shooting guard, let alone a lead ball handler. If Rivers is unable to handle the point, it will be difficult for him to coexist with a healthy Gordon in the New Orleans backcourt.

At age 20, Rivers has plenty of time to develop a more efficient game, possibly focused around the best skill he has shown so far -- 36.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. If he gets there, his eventual style of play will bear little resemblance to his ineffective brand of basketball thus far.
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Looking back: "Austin Rivers enters 2012 NBA Draft" thread.
#1 J.R., Dec 26, 2012

rolyat93 Member

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He can't go left at all, he can barely go right, decent range shooter but terrible finisher around the rim, can't pass, not overly athletic, and can't defend. I remember hearing NO might try to play him at PG, did they stick to that?

#2 rolyat93, Dec 26, 2012
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rolyat93 said: ↑

He can't go left at all, he can barely go right, decent range shooter but terrible finisher around the rim, can't pass, not overly athletic, and can't defend. I remember hearing NO might try to play him at PG, did they stick to that?
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If they had a redo I'm sure they would've changed their pick to Lamb. He's shown to be more NBA ready than Rivers at this point in their young careers.

#3 FLASH21, Dec 26, 2012
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I knew he wouldn't be ready for the NBA as a one and done. 2 or 3 more years under Coach K would've done him a whole lot.

#4 lionaire, Dec 26, 2012
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I knew it

#5 fogo18182028, Dec 26, 2012
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Anytime you are on the same list as Juwan Howard, its going to be bad

#6 Zboy, Dec 26, 2012

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Didn't 1/2-2/3 of Clutchfans want Austin Rivers in the draft?

#7 LCAhmed, Dec 26, 2012

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adeelionaire said: ↑

I knew he wouldn't be ready for the NBA as a one and done. 2 or 3 more years under Coach K would've done him a whole lot.
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True but Rivers always seemed like an arrogant kid. I'd compare him to the Curry brothers(both had Pops in the NBA) and the Curry brothers both seemed more humble than Rivers and more willing to soak in knowledge than Rivers(from what I've seen of Rivers since his senior year of HS).

#8 ferrari77, Dec 26, 2012
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dude has the slowest clumsiest crossover i have ever seen in basketball including ymca league. When he starts dribbling, he rarely switches, he always does this old woman crossover similar to paul pierce except his looks like he is an old woman

#9 Mr2Hos, Dec 26, 2012
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The NBA isn't full of pros for no reason. The college game is way different from the NBA.

#10 gnozahs, Dec 26, 2012
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if his dad wasn't Doc Rivers I'd bet he'd be out of the league within 3 years

#11 munco, Dec 26, 2012
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Just makes me appreciate OJ Mayo's progression even more. Him and JJ Reddick knew and accepted their diminished role and worked diligently to adjust to the NBA.

I don't know about Rivers. He needs to find his niche. Arrogance doesn't help.

#12 supdudes, Dec 26, 2012
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Dude's a poor-man's Aaron Brooks. That's just sad. I can't believe he got so much hype out of both high school and the draft. He's neither the speciman overhype like a Jordan Hill, nor a production hype like Adam Morrison. Is it really that important for him to have the genes of an ex-NBA role player?

#13 meh, Dec 26, 2012

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meh said: ↑

Dude's a poor-man's Aaron Brooks. That's just sad. I can't believe he got so much hype out of both high school and the draft. He's neither the speciman overhype like a Jordan Hill, nor a production hype like Adam Morrison. Is it really that important for him to have the genes of an ex-NBA role player?
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Yeah, I never saw what was so special about Rivers either.

#14 da_juice, Dec 26, 2012
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munco said: ↑

if his dad wasn't Doc Rivers I'd bet he'd be out of the league within 3 years
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If his dad wasn't Doc Rivers I'd be he wouldn't be coming into the league for another 3 years.

#15 Asian Sensation, Dec 26, 2012
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adeelionaire said: ↑

I knew he wouldn't be ready for the NBA as a one and done. 2 or 3 more years under Coach K would've done him a whole lot.
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This. He wasn't/isn't NBA ready (yet). Simple as that. Anybody that saw him play would've known that.

#16 Asian Sensation, Dec 26, 2012
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i've always thought that seth curry is the better player

when rivers were still at duke that is.

seth is mart by staying in college another year

#17 mvpcrossxover, Dec 27, 2012
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Austin probably thought that he was ready to play in the NBA because he scrimmage with the Celtics when he was younger and thought he could take them. But again, he's pretty arrogant so he think that he's more than NBA-ready when its clearly that he need to stay in college for the entire 4 years.

In today's game, there has been plenty of one & done college players who wants to get to the NBA as soon as possible mostly for financial purpose. It is clearly that there are plenty of NBA players who left college early and basically struggled throughout their NBA career. A lot of these young players doesn't realized is that college prepares them for the real world, maturity as well as physically.

#18 MambaJoe, Dec 27, 2012

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LCAhmed said: ↑

Didn't 1/2-2/3 of Clutchfans want Austin Rivers in the draft?
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I don't remember. But there was some squawking for sure. At the time Rivers seemed all about hype. And as we all know hype doesn't translate well to the NBA.

#19 jtr, Dec 27, 2012
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jtr said: ↑

I don't remember. But there was some squawking for sure. At the time Rivers seemed all about hype. And as we all know hype doesn't translate well to the NBA.
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Yeah true...Lebron was hyped a lot in high school but it was for good reason he backed it up we all knew he could anyway cause he was just a freak of nature...Jimmer was hyped as well and he's not doing good at all

#20 Houst0ne, Dec 27, 2012

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