Memphis/OKC/SAS are most likely going to take the 1-3 seeds. How many potential 6-8th seeds are NOT going to be 1st round exits? Considering most posters put the Rockets as a lottery team, a first round exit would be performing above expectation. :grin:
Also, the Knicks this year so far shot 3s well at a ridiculously rate. If they didn't shoot as well as like the Rockets, they would give up way more fast break points. It's just cause and effect. You can see Mike D'Antoni teams, past or present, Parker led Spurs of the last few years, teams who shot a lot of 3s are no good at transition D.
If I remember correctly, the 1994-95 Rockets team shot more 3's than any other team and was below 40%. They were also one of the top defensive team then. From this, 3 pt attempts does not necessarily correlate with poor defense. We turn the ball over the most and it seems to be inline with our defensive rating.
Great OP, meh. We've discussed before how the Rockets focus primarily on high percentage shots close to the basket or else three point bombs. Offensively, it means the Rockets are one of the highest scoring but also poorest shooting teams in the league. It is probably unimportant for the purposes of analysis whether this philosophy is the effect of having Daryl Morey as GM, or the Rockets coaching staff emphasizing this shot selection. The more likely scenario is that the parties are acting in concert with each other: One obtains players who are likely to succeed in that percentage-based offensive scheme, the other makes sure that the players are playing within it.
Nice read. But some of the observations seem to be natural result of players we assembled, rather than coach's deliberate philosophy or emphasis. For instance, attacking baskets and drawing fouls. Harden goes to FT line the most, but that's not what McHale asked him to do, rather that's how he is. Harden is not your post up, hard drive and step back, mid-ranger jumper like Sam Casell or Andre Miller; nor is he constant moving catch-and-shoot scorer like Rip Hamilton or Ray Allen. He's either driving hard for layup and drawing fouls in the process, or one or two dribble for rhythm 3 pointer shooting. Asik sometimes has a hard time to finish around the rim, but his offense is in the paint, layup, dunk, or put-backs. Obviously he's going to draw fouls in the paint. Lin is struggling with his shots, attacking the basket is his natural game, even when his shots were ok. So it's more of the makeup of our players, than coaches' decisions. Furthermore, the up-speed tempo, or better to say, the only one speed tempo, we are playing with, is similarly what's in this team, rather than coaches putting it into them. We are the youngest team, and almost everyone can run. Harden is great at uptempo, and Linsanity was at its peak when D'Antoni gave Lin free reign to run at will. We don't have a half-court game (that's one area I am quite concerned about, because that will be the deciding factor coming to playoff push time), and we don't have an real inside game to mix it up. So all we can do and do decently well is, run and shoot. Obviously, the result is not bad at all, better than most people have predicted. But we do need to improve, especially at the defensive end, as you emphasized.
This is great analysis. Thanks a lot! Just want to add a bit more. It may be helpful to also add in some psychological elements. If you take a lot of low percentage shots at the beginning of the game and they didn't fall, it may significantly affect your confidence; if you allow your opponent to shoot too easily at the beginning of the game, you might let them find their game too easy too early.
That's not really the point I'm making at all, nor is it entirely accurate. In defensive terms, the hardest thing to do is to defend the 3 point line AND the Rim simultaneously. The reason it is so difficult to defend both is simple physics. The 3 point line is 24 feet from the rim. Anywhere in between is LESS physical distance for the defender to cover, and LESS physical distance for help defense to respond to a Rim drive. That doesn't mean never take a mid range jumper, it just means that it always benefits a team if they put the opponent in the position of trying to cover a drive from the 3 or a kick out from the Rim. Are there times they should take a mid-range jumper? Sure. When the help defense covers the Rim or 3 point line to contest before you can get your shot off assuming there is NOT a player to pass to for a higher quality shot. However, designing an offense around the mid-range jumper is a losing proposition for all but a minority of players. That merely reinforces my argument, which is not every player has sufficient mid-range accuracy to warrant looking for the mid-range jumper on a consistent basis. Kobe shoots 48.1% from 10-15 feet and 43.0% from 16-23 feet. For Kobe, the mid-range jumper is actually statistically beneficial or a wash with shooting from the 3 point line. Will some of our players develop that game? Potentially. However, until they are sufficiently developed from that range (lots of practice), most of them should NOT even attempt that shot except as a last resort. Here are some interesting tidbits. As a team, despite having the #1 pace in the league (99.4 possessions per game)... Houston shoots the LOWEST number of 16-23 foot jumpers (11.3 per game) by FAR. The 2nd lowest (LAL) shoots 14.3 per game. Houston shoots the 2nd LOWEST number of 10-15 foot jumpers (3.9 per game). The Lakers shoot the lowest at 3.9 per game (fractionally lower). When adjusted for Pace, we shoot both mid-range jumpers at the lowest pace in the league by FAR. Houston has the 16th ranked FG% (44.1%) and 13th ranked 3 point percentage however we have the 8th ranked TS% (54.3%), 10th ranked Offensive Efficiency (103.2), and 3rd highest points scored per game (104.0). So, despite our mediocre FG%, and marginally above average 3 point shooting, offensively we are top 10 and the 3rd highest scoring team in the NBA. Just more stuff to think about...
My definition of "quality shots" would be simply open shots. IMO that the best offense is the one that can generate the most uncontested shots, any types. Of course the best would be dunks/layups, then the closer to the basket, then higher chance shots would go in. That's why I also believe that the value of a post scorer is so much higher than that of a perimeter scorer. I also do not believe that shooting a contested 3 is "more quality" than shooting an uncontested long 2.
This. It is hard to say whether the lack of a decent half court game is the result of a combination of youth and Harden's late arrival or the lack of coaching imagination. We'll have to wait and see. We don't have a big man who can BOTH score in the low post AND space the floor. They were probably hoping Patterson could do that. So far, he is fine as a floor spacer but hasn't shown much in terms of low post game. You can't do Harden ISO all the time and expect success in the half court game. They'll have to mix it up with some inside outside stuff, and a heavy dose of PnR.
Do not give this kid a suggestion. He will add it to his "trade Lin to LA "we" can win a ring" "coaches are racist" "Harden is a greedy ballhog" spam list.
The reasons that the Knicks have been shooting 3s well are: 1) they have at least five players shooting 3s above .400 2) they have Tyson Chandler under the rim to either catch the missed ball or deflect it back out. The Rockets have maybe only one 3-pt shooter above .400. All the other two or three are not consistent. Omer Asik, despite standing at 3rd for rebounding in the league until a week ago (he is now at 5th), is simply as effective as Chandler on offensive rebounds. Watch how he was out-played by Chandler in the last game Monday night. So in conclusion, I think the coaching staff, maybe under the influence of Morey's stats, should not make high-attempt 3-point shooting a main part of offense just because the league's averages show that shooting for 3s could bring in more points to win games. When you have players, including Jeremy Lin when he was in a shooting slump and never a good 3-point shooter, spread out on the perimeter, you need to also take into account whether their 3-pt percentages are good enough to produce the expected results, and whether you have a way to get a second chance when the shot missed.
The casino owners and management know they can win over the gamblers just by stats and probability. That's why they would invest hundreds of million dollars to build a new casino and recovered their investments in just three years. And they have many ways to ensure any gamblers who are having too much luck get walked out of the door shortly. Can we do the same in basketball?
Here is a good breakdown of the game and I agree with the changes he recomends.http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3FTAWs3dy1g#!
Lady and Gents - Tony aka "Little engine that couldn't" Douglas is that player shooting over 40% from 3's.
