I believe he will have to be cut within 3 days after the Super Bowl before a big chunk of money would become guaranteed.
It won't be painless. 4 years left on a 6 year deal with ~$40M guaranteed. Would likely mean an accelerated 2013 cap hit of ~$26M. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6907779/philadelphia-eagles-michael-vick-agree-six-year-contract Eagles may be on the verge of a massive vet purge and rebuild.
You're correct - I made the assumption that the guaranteed money was in the form of a signing bonus, but it wasn't. http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php...-vicks-100-million-deal-is-nowhere-near-that/ Cap hit of ~$4M after this season. He's absolutely a goner.
This is what I've been hearing. Vick, Jenkins, Asomougha, Rodgers-Cromartie could all be shown the door. I've even heard Ryans and Maclin could be goners. What a drop.
He'll end up with a team that misses out on the pickings of QBs in the 2013 Draft. Arizona, Jacksonville, Cleveland, or Miami.
Miami has Tannehill, and he will be the starter next year. Doubt Cleveland gives up on Weeden already, given he has been decent enough. Jacksonville may give up on Gabbert, but he did show growth from his rookie season. Arizona is logical even if they draft Barkley or Smith.
It has been proven you can win both in the regular season and playoffs with Vick. In the NFL you can go from last to first in a year. Why not just go with a proven guy and try to do a 1 year turn around.