Except that Lin proved last season that his production goes way up when his usage nears Harden's level (28.1 for Lin last season; 28.2 for Harden this season).
why do you fight so hard? you will not convince them anyway... lin just needs to prove himself on the court...
if you look at the definition of USG% you will noticed that the production is directly related to USG%, and USG% do not even include AST, thus unless Lin shoot more than 8-9 shots per game, or get whistle from refs, or get more turn overs, he will not get higher USG%, it has nothing to do whether he will play PG or SG though.
You really can't use usage rate for a correct estimation of possessions or efficiency, aside from assists. Wages of Wins actually has an excellent article on the problems with Usage rate. http://wagesofwins.com/2012/11/02/just-shoot-more-how-to-fool-advanced-stats/ Here's a couple tidbits... Usage rate is heavily distorted when you have a person that shoots a lot, or who makes poor shooting decisions. That isn't to say Harden is a poor shooter, or makes poor decisions (he does sometimes), however we should be careful about using Usage rate to determine actual possession usage. It's why I prefer to take the RAW numbers from either 82 games (adding up actual possession types) or from Synergy (ACTUAL possession types in game). It's also why you just can't scale up Usage rate for Lin to make comparisons. Increasing Lin's usage rate won't necessarily result in more assists, Lin could jack those up by just taking lots of terrible shots. And it would have the perverse effect of LOWERING his TOV%. It's why I much prefer to look at more granular statistics like ACTUAL passes leading to Assists, and why I think it takes more sense to normalize those numbers around the actual In-game TS% than to try to use a flawed statistic like Usage rate. Just some thoughts.
As I've remarked before, efficiency depends on usage. Your argument is assuming FG% and TOV% won't change with increased usage. To illustrate the point, Chuck Hayes this season has a very low usage rate -- 9.6. He also has a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. If we "normalize" his stats to Harden's usage rate, he ends up averaging 9.4 points, 11.2 assists, and 3.5 turnovers. Should anyone believe that such stats are really reflective of his actual abilities? In actuality, if he extended his usage to 28.2 rate that Harden is playing with, he'd be completely out of his element. He'd turnover the ball like crazy, and his already poor FG% would drop to truly embarrassing levels. I understand that you have faith that this arithmetic you're applying is valid based on a stretch of games Lin had last year in a different system that favored PGs, with a healthy knee, and against opponents that hadn't fully scouted his weaknesses. But I don't believe credible analysis should rely on such faith. Lin's efficiency would very likely plummet if his usage rate increased to Harden's level.
Linsanity also lasted around 20 games, in a PG orientated system and he wasn't missing wide open jumpshots. Teams were also not adjusted to Lin during the early parts of Linsanity. The first 11 game, before meeting Miami, Lin averaged 24 points and roughly 8 assist. He had 9 games where he scored over 20+ points. After the Miami game, he averaged roughly 14.6 points and 6 assists in the next 13. The most points he scored was 20, and he only had two of those performances. My point is if Lin was any where near Linsanity level, then you have a case. Except Lin is not anywhere near Linsanity level, they are not even the same player right now. Lin's shooting efficiency is deplorable compared to Linsanity, and that is one aspect of a player's game that is supposed to drop with increased usage rate.
Not disagreeing with the general gist of your post, but didn't Melo and Amare come back? Then Lin was no longer the first option, but 3rd. He wasn't taking as many shots, as should be when you have Melo and Amare.
I do believe there's some merit to this argument. In game efficiency, like anything, has a curve of diminishing returns for ANY player, whether that's Harden or Lin. The REAL question in my mind is where that curve of tradeoffs is in terms of percentage of possessions actually being initiated by Harden OR Lin OR Parsons for that matter. The limited crunching I've done tend to point to Lin being under-utilized and Harden being over-utilized during the mid stretch of games. I don't think it's nearly as much of an issue over the last 5 games or so. Where that utilization will land in the future is anyone's guess, but I still believe that Lin is a superior facilitator simply due to his Passing/Passing TO ratio combined with his quality of facilitated shots. Now, whether that will actually result in superior PPP is harder to pin down, as Lin's propensity to pass will lead to more hockey assists than Harden's preference to generate his own shot. Once again, those hockey assist stats are a missing part of the equation... Morey has hinted that Lin's decision making has been excellent, but wasn't so kind as to divulge the hockey pass information (which SportsVu actually tracks ... damn proprietary information!). As for formula's that get us a more accurate picture, we're all kind of grasping in the dark here. Nothing like working with incomplete and flawed information in terms of trying to glean nuggets of truth.
To be fair, after Miami he had a rather healthy dose of Carmelo and Amare also, to defer to or create for. I think we can mostly agree that Lin is shooting very poorly this season, and fairly passive in trying to create for himself, and this is a balance of him focusing on playmaking, the team being more than capable offensively without him needing to score much, his efforts on defense, lower usage, Harden's capability to playmaker as well as iso (having the ball in Harden's hands), and obviously his poor shooting so far. The other things we can't really verify but may exist include coaching/strategy, return from injury etc.
Amare was here during most of Linsanity, so he wasn't really a factor. Carmelo came back a few games before the Miami game. Lin averaged 15 shots before Miami game (Feb) and 11 shots after (March). However, his shooting percentage dropped from 47% to 40%. So yes, it's fair statement to say Melo mellowed Linsanity when he returned. However, Lin broke the 20 points barrier 9 times in 13 games during Feb, but only hit it twice during March in 13 games. It's difficult to assess how much Melo affected Lin. Still, I would be happy to have the post-Miami Lin. The current Lin is nowhere close to the peak Linsanity, and not even close to the post-Miami Linsanity.
I adjusted my formula by taking into account %Ast (percent of made field goals assisted) and ORB (offensive rebounds) to estimate field goals and free throws earned through a play off the dribble (i.e. not assisted or off an offensive rebound). Originally, my formula was: PLA = FGA + 0.5*FTA + 1.5*AST + TOV ("plays attempted") PLM = FGM + 0.5*FTM + AST ("plays made") PLX = PLA - PLM ("plays failed") PLM_RTG = (LgPace/TmPace) * (36/MP) * (2*PLM- PLX) ("playmaking rating") Score% = (FGM + 0.5*FTM) / (FGA + 0.5*FTA) I now modified it to the following: PLA = FGA_unassisted + 0.5*FTA_unassisted + 1.8*AST_pure + TOV PLM = FGM_unassisted + 0.5*FTM_unassisted + AST_pure PLX = PLA - PLM PLM_RTG = (LgPace/TmPace) * (36/MP) * (2*PLM - PLX) Score% = (FGM_unassisted + 0.5*FTM_unassisted) / (FGA_unassisted + 0.5*FTA_unassisted) where: FGA_unassisted: estimated FGA via the player's dribble (unassisted, not off an offensive rebound) FTA_unassisted: estimated FTA via the player's dribble (unassisted, not off an offensive rebound) AST_pure: a "pure" assist (i.e. an assist earned by the passer and not simply a "system" pass or a pass off a hockey assist) These are the additional assumptions I made in my model to compute FGA_unassisted, FTA_unassisted, and AST_pure: (1) Players will shoot on average 10% higher than their listed FG% on field goals that are asissted (2) When a player gets an offensive rebound, he'll immediately take a shot 67% of the time. (3) On field goal attempts off an offensive rebound, a player will shoot 67%. (4) The percentage of FTA gained through a play off the dribble is the same as for FGA. (5) The percentage of assists that are "pure" assists is 67%. (6) On average, an assisted shot has a 55% chance of going in (approx. 10% > than average FG%) Here are the results for every player in the league who played at least 20 MPG: Code: [size=1] [B]Player Name Tm Pos GP MPG PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG[/B] 1 Chris Paul LAC PG 17 34.1 17.1 9.8 2.4 22.7 51.9% 11.9 2 Rajon Rondo BOS PG 14 36.9 12.6 12.5 3.1 30.8 47.6% 10.5 3 Tony Parker SAS PG 16 32.5 20.0 7.9 2.2 30.6 47.9% 10.1 4 Kobe Bryant LAL SG 17 37.1 26.5 5.0 3.9 30.3 52.5% 9.2 5 Jrue Holiday PHI PG 17 38.4 17.3 8.7 3.9 19.7 46.5% 8.5 6 LeBron James MIA SF 15 37.3 23.9 6.2 2.4 41.1 49.0% 8.4 7 Russell Westbrook OKC PG 18 35.8 20.8 8.7 3.5 21.6 42.9% 8.2 8 Jeff Teague ATL PG 14 30.9 15.9 8.3 3.5 22.7 47.0% 7.8 9 Goran Dragic PHO PG 18 31.6 17.4 7.5 2.6 33.7 46.4% 7.3 10 Greivis Vasquez NOR PG 16 32.8 14.3 9.5 3.8 26.3 42.6% 7.3 11 Nate Robinson CHI PG 15 21.0 19.2 6.2 3.0 27.7 46.5% 7.2 12 Darren Collison DAL PG 16 32.3 13.8 7.1 2.6 30.6 46.6% 6.8 13 Deron Williams BKN PG 16 35.9 15.4 8.9 2.9 35.8 40.6% 6.8 14 Jarrett Jack GSW PG 17 25.2 14.3 6.4 2.6 31.8 48.8% 6.7 15 Dwyane Wade MIA SG 12 33.7 20.9 5.3 2.4 41.3 46.9% 6.7 16 Mike Conley Jr. MEM PG 14 34.1 16.1 7.1 3.2 36 49.5% 6.7 17 Louis Williams ATL SG 14 24.4 20.6 4.9 2.1 34.9 45.5% 6.6 18 Kyle Lowry TOR PG 12 31.2 19.6 6.4 2.8 32.8 44.6% 6.6 19 James Harden HOU SG 16 38.7 22.4 5.0 3.8 29.9 47.8% 6.3 20 Damian Lillard POR PG 18 37.7 18.2 6.1 3.2 26.5 44.2% 5.8 21 Raymond Felton NYK PG 16 33.3 16.4 7.3 2.6 33.3 39.7% 5.7 22 Andre Miller DEN PG 18 25.1 12.2 7.3 3.4 33.3 47.2% 5.3 23 George Hill IND PG 17 35.3 15.1 5.4 1.9 34.8 42.7% 5.3 24 Mo Williams UTH PG 15 33.1 15.5 7.5 2.9 42.2 41.2% 5.3 25 Kemba Walker CHA PG 16 36.4 16.5 5.9 2.4 32 41.0% 5.1 26 Ramon Sessions CHA PG 16 28.9 19.4 5.8 2.6 41.8 41.4% 5.1 27 Tyreke Evans SAC PG 14 32.4 16.6 4.1 2.4 33.8 45.7% 5.0 28 Stephen Curry GSW PG 17 37.0 18.4 6.2 3.1 38.2 42.2% 4.9 29 Jose Calderon TOR PG 18 28.4 12.9 9.2 2.6 69.2 32.3% 4.7 30 Kevin Durant OKC SF 18 39.1 24.1 3.9 3.1 58.8 50.1% 4.7 31 Luke Ridnour MIN PG 15 31.7 13.2 5.0 2.0 35.9 43.6% 4.6 32 Brandon Jennings MIL PG 16 36.1 17.0 6.2 2.2 42.9 38.4% 4.3 33 J.R. Smith NYK SG 16 33.2 14.7 3.1 1.2 38 41.6% 3.8 34 Carmelo Anthony NYK SF 16 35.6 26.9 2.1 3.1 39.5 45.1% 3.7 35 Evan Turner PHI SF 17 34.5 14.7 4.2 1.8 47.8 41.4% 3.6 36 Jamaal Tinsley UTH PG 16 20.4 4.7 9.8 3.4 56.3 22.8% 3.6 37 Jeremy Pargo CLE PG 11 26.4 16.0 5.2 3.2 31.3 40.7% 3.4 38 Jordan Crawford WAS SG 14 24.6 19.2 5.0 3.3 32.4 39.9% 3.3 39 Ty Lawson DEN PG 18 36.1 13.4 7.2 3.3 39.6 36.4% 3.3 40 Jeremy Lin HOU PG 16 34.4 11.4 6.9 3.0 42.4 36.9% 3.2 41 Jason Kidd NYK PG 12 26.1 11.0 4.7 0.9 75.9 37.0% 3.2 42 Jamal Crawford LAC SG 17 28.9 22.0 2.1 2.3 53.1 44.8% 3.1 43 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG 18 37.3 17.8 1.8 1.6 44.4 43.6% 3.1 44 Brandon Knight DET PG 19 31.4 15.5 6.0 3.9 46.5 41.3% 3.0 45 Monta Ellis MIL PG 16 35.0 19.2 5.2 2.9 49.1 38.2% 3.0 46 Aaron Brooks SAC PG 16 22.3 12.3 3.3 1.5 30.6 40.5% 3.0 47 Alexey Shved MIN PG 15 24.3 15.4 5.4 2.8 43.1 38.0% 2.9 48 A.J. Price WAS PG 14 29.6 10.9 6.3 1.9 34.8 31.9% 2.9 49 Manu Ginobili SAS SG 15 24.5 17.1 6.3 3.2 56.9 37.4% 2.8 50 Kirk Hinrich CHI SG 14 27.0 8.3 7.4 2.7 41.4 30.6% 2.8 51 Shannon Brown PHO PG 18 23.9 18.0 3.2 1.9 39.7 39.5% 2.8 52 Ben Gordon CHA SG 14 25.4 21.3 4.2 2.9 53.4 40.6% 2.5 53 Ray Allen MIA SG 15 26.8 17.9 2.8 1.6 64.6 44.3% 2.4 54 Mario Chalmers MIA PG 15 25.9 9.5 6.0 2.4 60.5 33.2% 2.4 55 J.J. Redick ORL SG 16 30.3 16.6 6.1 2.5 79.2 33.2% 2.4 56 O.J. Mayo DAL SG 17 34.7 20.9 3.3 2.4 58.8 41.9% 2.3 57 Paul Pierce BOS SF 17 33.8 20.4 3.4 2.6 60.8 40.9% 2.2 58 Joe Johnson BKN SG 16 37.6 14.9 3.6 1.7 47.9 36.7% 2.2 59 Marc Gasol MEM C 15 36.5 15.7 4.3 1.4 70.2 34.8% 2.2 60 Rodney Stuckey DET PG 18 28.1 12.3 4.7 1.6 48.3 33.5% 2.2 61 Dion Waiters CLE SG 17 32.1 17.0 3.8 2.1 35.5 36.3% 2.1 62 Gary Neal SAS PG 16 24.1 16.6 3.0 2.2 50.7 40.5% 2.0 63 Tim Duncan SAS PF 17 31.4 21.7 3.0 1.8 66.7 40.3% 2.0 64 LaMarcus Aldridge POR PF 17 38.6 19.4 2.6 2.0 50.3 39.8% 2.0 65 Devin Harris ATL PG 12 21.8 11.3 4.1 1.9 53.3 36.4% 2.0 66 Vince Carter DAL SG 17 23.5 20.0 2.5 1.7 48.7 38.2% 1.8 67 Chuck Hayes SAC PF 16 21.3 5.8 3.9 1.3 76 4.2% 1.7 68 Kevin Martin OKC SG 18 29.8 19.4 2.1 1.9 68.6 43.5% 1.7 69 Blake Griffin LAC PF 17 33.2 18.9 3.4 2.8 59 40.9% 1.7 70 Andre Iguodala DEN SG 18 35.2 15.3 3.9 2.8 52.9 39.2% 1.6 71 Boris Diaw SAS C 18 24.1 8.6 3.7 1.5 73.2 32.2% 1.4 72 Tayshaun Prince DET SF 19 32.5 13.6 2.7 1.2 64.2 35.7% 1.4 73 Jason Terry BOS SG 17 28.2 15.0 3.0 1.6 76.8 36.9% 1.3 74 Wesley Matthews POR SG 18 37.6 15.4 2.6 1.4 60.4 36.0% 1.3 75 David West IND PF 17 34.3 18.6 2.7 1.9 61.8 37.8% 1.2 76 Al Jefferson UTH C 19 33.4 18.0 2.1 1.6 52.2 37.4% 1.1 77 Carl Landry GSW PF 17 26.6 18.9 1.4 2.5 48.8 47.7% 1.0 78 Lance Stephenson IND SG 17 24.9 10.4 3.7 2.1 70 34.3% 0.9 79 Rudy Gay MEM SF 15 36.5 18.6 2.3 2.4 46.3 37.8% 0.9 80 E'Twaun Moore ORL SG 17 26.5 13.6 4.3 3.1 44.9 35.7% 0.9 81 Danilo Gallinari DEN SF 17 33.6 16.6 2.6 1.7 52.8 35.1% 0.8 82 John Salmons SAC SG 11 26.1 9.5 2.8 1.4 62.1 32.6% 0.7 83 Glen Davis ORL PF 17 32.1 17.8 2.4 1.8 51.8 35.0% 0.6 84 Chandler Parsons HOU SF 15 38.2 15.0 3.3 2.0 69.3 33.3% 0.6 85 Roger Mason Jr. NOR SG 16 20.8 9.8 2.3 0.9 73.3 29.1% 0.5 86 Martell Webster WAS SF 13 21.4 14.5 1.9 2.2 68.8 41.6% 0.5 87 Arron Afflalo ORL SF 17 34.6 16.8 2.6 2.3 65.1 36.1% 0.4 88 Harrison Barnes GSW SF 17 27.8 12.7 1.8 1.8 56.3 37.7% 0.4 89 Austin Rivers NOR SG 15 27.3 8.4 4.0 2.0 40.6 29.7% 0.4 90 Randy Foye UTH PG 19 26.0 16.4 2.6 1.6 74.3 31.7% 0.3 91 Jonas Valanciunas TOR C 18 23.9 13.6 2.0 2.0 51.5 37.9% 0.2 92 Mike Dunleavy MIL SF 15 27.0 14.4 3.2 1.5 78.9 26.2% 0.2 93 Brook Lopez BKN C 14 29.8 22.4 0.9 2.1 61.3 39.6% 0.2 94 Daniel Gibson CLE SG 15 24.3 12.5 3.2 1.0 85.7 20.3% 0.2 95 Alonzo Gee CLE SF 18 33.1 13.2 2.2 2.7 44.7 37.6% 0.1 96 Anderson Varejao CLE C 17 36.6 15.0 3.2 1.8 68.6 10.5% 0.1 97 Kendrick Perkins OKC C 18 25.2 7.3 2.4 1.4 65 20.9% 0.0 98 Nicolas Batum POR SF 18 39.4 16.0 2.9 2.3 62.3 33.3% 0.0 99 Marcus Thornton SAC SG 16 28.9 18.9 1.9 1.0 65.9 31.2% 0.0 100 Quincy Pondexter MEM SF 15 23.0 9.2 2.3 0.8 71.9 22.7% 0.0 101 M. Kidd-Gilchrist CHA SF 16 27.3 14.2 2.1 1.9 56.9 34.4% 0.0 102 Nick Young PHI SG 16 23.3 14.9 2.0 1.4 67.9 31.7% -0.1 103 Kevin Garnett BOS PF 17 28.9 19.4 2.3 2.1 78.3 34.4% -0.1 104 Luis Scola PHO PF 18 26.9 16.7 2.2 1.9 57.9 33.8% -0.1 105 Jason Thompson SAC PF 16 30.6 12.8 1.3 1.3 57.4 33.8% -0.1 106 Thabo Sefolosha OKC SG 18 27.7 9.2 2.5 1.4 82.6 19.1% -0.2 107 Andrei Kirilenko MIN SF 13 36.4 12.9 3.3 2.6 68.3 30.3% -0.2 108 Greg Monroe DET C 19 33.3 17.0 3.8 3.6 55.5 34.8% -0.2 109 Thaddeus Young PHI SF 17 35.6 14.7 1.4 1.3 67 32.7% -0.3 110 Marvin Williams UTH PF 16 27.8 13.4 1.5 1.3 75 32.2% -0.3 111 Michael Beasley PHO SF 18 27.7 15.3 3.3 3.5 37.6 35.1% -0.3 112 Ronnie Brewer NYK SF 16 22.8 11.2 2.2 0.5 77.3 12.2% -0.4 113 Al Horford ATL C 13 36.5 15.7 3.4 1.8 77.2 19.0% -0.4 114 DeMarcus Cousins SAC C 14 29.6 19.5 2.5 3.1 37.8 35.0% -0.5 115 Metta World Peace LAL SF 17 35.6 13.4 2.3 1.8 67.6 29.3% -0.5 116 Jason Richardson PHI SG 13 29.1 15.7 1.4 0.8 69.4 27.6% -0.6 117 David Lee GSW PF 17 37.4 16.8 3.6 2.5 73.2 25.2% -0.6 118 Darius Morris LAL PG 15 22.3 9.5 4.0 2.8 53.1 26.4% -0.6 119 Joakim Noah CHI C 15 39.0 12.2 3.9 2.3 64 14.7% -0.6 120 Jeff Green BOS PF 17 21.7 14.8 1.2 2.5 57.1 37.7% -0.7 121 Gordon Hayward UTH SG 19 28.3 17.7 2.5 2.5 71.1 32.4% -0.7 122 Luol Deng CHI SF 15 40.7 16.0 2.4 2.3 68.3 31.3% -0.7 123 Chris Bosh MIA C 15 33.8 20.5 1.4 2.1 75 35.3% -0.7 124 Jae Crowder DAL SF 16 20.2 12.0 2.0 1.4 78 26.2% -0.7 125 Ekpe Udoh MIL PF 16 22.2 9.0 1.5 1.4 55.9 27.0% -0.7 126 Courtney Lee BOS SG 17 24.8 8.5 2.1 2.2 69.8 30.5% -0.8 127 Kyle Singler DET SF 19 27.3 13.5 1.3 1.3 78.9 27.3% -0.8 128 Paul George IND SF 17 34.7 14.0 3.5 2.6 63.5 28.2% -0.8 129 Jared Dudley PHO SG 18 25.8 12.0 2.3 1.4 80.3 19.5% -0.8 130 Chris Kaman DAL C 15 27.1 18.1 1.4 2.7 64.4 37.5% -0.8 131 Paul Millsap UTH PF 19 30.6 16.4 2.9 2.5 62.1 28.9% -0.8 132 Kosta Koufos DEN C 18 21.7 10.5 0.8 1.2 82 6.4% -0.9 133 Pau Gasol LAL PF 17 34.8 13.0 3.6 1.9 72.6 16.5% -0.9 134 Robin Lopez NOR C 16 27.6 15.4 1.4 1.8 65.8 31.9% -0.9 135 Tyson Chandler NYK C 16 29.5 14.9 0.6 1.1 62.5 19.1% -0.9 136 Josh Smith ATL SF 13 35.0 16.5 3.8 3.2 62.6 30.0% -0.9 137 Kyle Korver ATL SG 13 29.3 13.2 2.0 0.9 93.6 10.0% -0.9 138 DeShawn Stevenson ATL SG 11 25.6 8.9 1.5 0.8 87.5 9.3% -1.0 139 Amir Johnson TOR PF 18 20.2 12.7 2.1 1.7 72 10.8% -1.0 140 Carlos Boozer CHI PF 15 29.5 16.7 2.4 2.4 59.1 30.9% -1.1 141 Marcin Gortat PHO C 18 31.2 13.5 1.2 1.9 64.4 32.2% -1.1 142 Tony Allen MEM SG 13 24.5 11.8 0.9 1.5 65.8 29.8% -1.3 143 Ryan Anderson NOR PF 16 32.8 19.2 1.6 1.2 70.5 24.1% -1.3 144 Andrea Bargnani TOR C 17 34.5 18.1 1.4 1.9 67.3 31.0% -1.3 145 Zaza Pachulia ATL PF 14 24.5 10.1 2.3 2.5 61.1 13.6% -1.4 146 Kris Humphries BKN PF 16 24.6 11.9 0.9 0.9 72 12.0% -1.4 147 Shane Battier MIA SF 13 26.6 9.5 1.0 1.0 93.3 2.9% -1.4 148 Marcus Morris HOU PF 16 20.7 15.1 1.3 1.2 63 24.4% -1.4 149 Steve Novak NYK SF 16 23.8 12.3 0.6 0.3 90.9 13.4% -1.5 150 Shawn Marion DAL SF 12 29.0 11.4 3.4 2.8 84.4 7.4% -1.5 151 Dante Cunningham MIN PF 15 22.3 12.6 1.0 0.9 70.4 18.7% -1.5 152 Elton Brand DAL PF 16 22.4 11.1 2.6 1.6 65.9 11.4% -1.5 153 Larry Sanders MIL C 16 23.1 12.6 1.3 2.0 63.6 25.1% -1.5 154 Markieff Morris PHO PF 18 21.6 15.0 2.1 1.6 61.2 23.3% -1.6 155 Nikola Pekovic MIN C 14 29.2 17.0 1.4 2.6 60.3 32.2% -1.6 156 Dwight Howard LAL C 17 36.2 18.6 1.7 3.0 66.1 33.6% -1.6 157 Patrick Patterson HOU PF 15 30.2 17.4 1.2 1.4 75.8 23.3% -1.6 158 Brandon Bass BOS PF 17 27.7 12.4 1.1 1.1 71.2 19.5% -1.7 159 Jeffery Taylor CHA SF 15 24.9 11.9 1.3 1.3 78.3 18.0% -1.7 160 Lavoy Allen PHI PF 17 22.9 9.8 1.8 1.3 62.2 7.8% -1.8 161 Bismack Biyombo CHA PF 14 20.6 7.8 0.3 1.8 73.1 8.9% -1.8 162 J.J. Hickson POR C 17 28.5 13.7 1.2 2.2 49.3 27.6% -1.8 163 Kenneth Faried DEN SF 18 30.6 15.6 0.8 1.7 54.2 24.3% -1.8 164 Jason Maxiell DET PF 19 26.9 11.9 0.9 1.8 71 23.8% -1.9 165 Brendan Haywood CHA C 15 27.7 8.5 0.9 1.8 51.1 17.4% -1.9 166 Bradley Beal WAS SG 14 27.6 14.3 2.2 2.3 67.3 26.7% -1.9 167 DeAndre Jordan LAC C 17 25.9 14.0 0.4 2.1 59.5 32.1% -1.9 168 Danny Green SAS SG 17 30.3 11.6 1.7 1.3 90.3 4.0% -1.9 169 Ersan Ilyasova MIL SF 15 22.9 10.9 2.4 0.9 81 5.0% -1.9 170 Richard Hamilton CHI SG 15 27.0 18.5 3.1 2.9 90.1 21.3% -2.0 171 Klay Thompson GSW SG 17 35.0 15.8 2.3 2.2 72.4 25.4% -2.0 172 Serge Ibaka OKC PF 18 31.2 16.5 0.4 1.9 75.9 28.2% -2.0 173 Trevor Ariza WAS SF 14 25.7 11.7 2.6 2.0 69.8 18.7% -2.1 174 Nikola Vucevic ORL C 17 29.4 12.5 2.0 2.0 70.5 15.4% -2.1 175 Zach Randolph MEM PF 15 36.2 16.2 1.5 2.4 53.7 26.5% -2.2 176 Matt Barnes LAC SF 16 25.4 11.8 1.7 1.8 78 9.1% -2.2 177 Tyler Zeller CLE C 14 22.1 10.8 1.4 2.0 76.3 8.5% -2.3 178 Emeka Okafor WAS C 14 22.0 11.8 1.5 1.4 67.5 9.2% -2.3 179 Taj Gibson CHI PF 15 21.1 11.9 1.6 2.0 80 11.7% -2.3 180 Al.Farouq Aminu NOR SF 16 31.0 11.7 2.3 3.0 73.9 20.6% -2.3 181 Byron Mullens CHA C 16 33.6 13.8 1.3 1.4 68.8 21.1% -2.4 182 Caron Butler LAC SF 16 24.6 14.2 1.5 1.3 90 9.4% -2.4 183 Corey Brewer DEN SF 18 22.9 16.5 1.1 1.7 77.5 23.2% -2.5 184 Tristan Thompson CLE PF 18 30.6 10.5 1.4 1.7 56.9 8.8% -2.5 185 Dorell Wright PHI SF 17 21.9 13.0 1.5 1.8 85 10.7% -3.0 186 Omer Asik HOU C 16 32.8 12.1 1.4 3.3 67.2 12.3% -3.1 187 Derrick Williams MIN PF 12 21.0 16.3 1.3 2.6 65 25.3% -3.2 188 Gerald Green IND SF 17 22.8 12.3 0.8 1.8 72.9 17.7% -3.2 189 Kevin Seraphin WAS PF 13 24.4 16.9 1.7 3.5 62 26.3% -3.6 190 Derrick Favors UTH PF 17 22.8 14.7 0.8 2.4 54.5 15.5% -3.8 191 Roy Hibbert IND C 17 29.1 12.0 1.7 2.4 46.5 15.8% -4.0 [/size] Here are new ratings for the Rockets: Code: [size=1] [B]Player Name Pos GP Min PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG[/B] James Harden SG 16 619 22.4 5.0 3.8 29.9 47.8% 6.4 Jeremy Lin PG 16 550 11.4 6.9 3.0 42.4 36.9% 3.3 Chandler Parsons SF 15 573 15.0 3.3 2.0 69.3 33.3% 0.6 Carlos Delfino SF 9 207 13.6 3.1 1.7 81.5 19.6% -1.1 Toney Douglas PG 15 234 13.1 4.0 3.5 58.3 29.4% -1.2 Marcus Morris PF 16 331 15.1 1.3 1.2 63 24.4% -1.5 Patrick Patterson PF 15 453 17.4 1.2 1.4 75.8 23.3% -1.8 Omer Asik C 16 524 12.1 1.4 3.3 67.2 12.3% -3.5 [/size] And now, top 10 for each position. PG: Code: [size=1] Player Name Tm Pos GP MPG PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG 1 Chris Paul LAC PG 17 34.1 17.1 9.8 2.4 22.7 51.9% 11.9 2 Rajon Rondo BOS PG 14 36.9 12.6 12.5 3.1 30.8 47.6% 10.5 3 Tony Parker SAS PG 16 32.5 20.0 7.9 2.2 30.6 47.9% 10.1 4 Jrue Holiday PHI PG 17 38.4 17.3 8.7 3.9 19.7 46.5% 8.5 5 Russell Westbrook OKC PG 18 35.8 20.8 8.7 3.5 21.6 42.9% 8.2 6 Jeff Teague ATL PG 14 30.9 15.9 8.3 3.5 22.7 47.0% 7.8 7 Goran Dragic PHO PG 18 31.6 17.4 7.5 2.6 33.7 46.4% 7.3 8 Greivis Vasquez NOR PG 16 32.8 14.3 9.5 3.8 26.3 42.6% 7.3 9 Nate Robinson CHI PG 15 21.0 19.2 6.2 3.0 27.7 46.5% 7.2 10 Darren Collison DAL PG 16 32.3 13.8 7.1 2.6 30.6 46.6% 6.8 [/size] SG: Code: [size=1] [B]Player Name Tm Pos GP MPG PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG[/B] 1 Kobe Bryant LAL SG 17 37.1 26.5 5.0 3.9 30.3 52.5% 9.2 2 Dwyane Wade MIA SG 12 33.7 20.9 5.3 2.4 41.3 46.9% 6.7 3 Louis Williams ATL SG 14 24.4 20.6 4.9 2.1 34.9 45.5% 6.6 4 James Harden HOU SG 16 38.7 22.4 5.0 3.8 29.9 47.8% 6.3 5 J.R. Smith NYK SG 16 33.2 14.7 3.1 1.2 38 41.6% 3.8 6 Jordan Crawford WAS SG 14 24.6 19.2 5.0 3.3 32.4 39.9% 3.3 7 Jamal Crawford LAC SG 17 28.9 22.0 2.1 2.3 53.1 44.8% 3.1 8 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG 18 37.3 17.8 1.8 1.6 44.4 43.6% 3.1 9 Manu Ginobili SAS SG 15 24.5 17.1 6.3 3.2 56.9 37.4% 2.8 10 Kirk Hinrich CHI SG 14 27.0 8.3 7.4 2.7 41.4 30.6% 2.8 [/size] SF: Code: [size=1] [B]Player Name Tm Pos GP MPG PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG[/B] 1 LeBron James MIA SF 15 37.3 23.9 6.2 2.4 41.1 49.0% 8.4 2 Kevin Durant OKC SF 18 39.1 24.1 3.9 3.1 58.8 50.1% 4.7 3 Carmelo Anthony NYK SF 16 35.6 26.9 2.1 3.1 39.5 45.1% 3.7 4 Evan Turner PHI SF 17 34.5 14.7 4.2 1.8 47.8 41.4% 3.6 5 Paul Pierce BOS SF 17 33.8 20.4 3.4 2.6 60.8 40.9% 2.2 6 Tayshaun Prince DET SF 19 32.5 13.6 2.7 1.2 64.2 35.7% 1.4 7 Rudy Gay MEM SF 15 36.5 18.6 2.3 2.4 46.3 37.8% 0.9 8 Danilo Gallinari DEN SF 17 33.6 16.6 2.6 1.7 52.8 35.1% 0.8 9 Chandler Parsons HOU SF 15 38.2 15.0 3.3 2.0 69.3 33.3% 0.6 10 Martell Webster WAS SF 13 21.4 14.5 1.9 2.2 68.8 41.6% 0.5 [/size] PF: Code: [size=1] [B]Player Name Tm Pos GP MPG PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG[/B] 1 Tim Duncan SAS PF 17 31.4 21.7 3.0 1.8 66.7 40.3% 2.0 2 LaMarcus Aldridge POR PF 17 38.6 19.4 2.6 2.0 50.3 39.8% 2.0 3 Chuck Hayes SAC PF 16 21.3 5.8 3.9 1.3 76 4.2% 1.7 4 Blake Griffin LAC PF 17 33.2 18.9 3.4 2.8 59 40.9% 1.7 5 David West IND PF 17 34.3 18.6 2.7 1.9 61.8 37.8% 1.2 6 Carl Landry GSW PF 17 26.6 18.9 1.4 2.5 48.8 47.7% 1.0 7 Glen Davis ORL PF 17 32.1 17.8 2.4 1.8 51.8 35.0% 0.6 8 Kevin Garnett BOS PF 17 28.9 19.4 2.3 2.1 78.3 34.4% -0.1 9 Luis Scola PHO PF 18 26.9 16.7 2.2 1.9 57.9 33.8% -0.1 10 Jason Thompson SAC PF 16 30.6 12.8 1.3 1.3 57.4 33.8% -0.1 [/size] C: Code: [size=1] [B]Player Name Tm Pos GP MPG PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36 %Ast Score% PLM_RTG[/B] 1 Marc Gasol MEM C 15 36.5 15.7 4.3 1.4 70.2 34.8% 2.2 2 Boris Diaw SAS C 18 24.1 8.6 3.7 1.5 73.2 32.2% 1.4 3 Al Jefferson UTH C 19 33.4 18.0 2.1 1.6 52.2 37.4% 1.1 4 Jonas Valanciunas TOR C 18 23.9 13.6 2.0 2.0 51.5 37.9% 0.2 5 Brook Lopez BKN C 14 29.8 22.4 0.9 2.1 61.3 39.6% 0.2 6 Anderson Varejao CLE C 17 36.6 15.0 3.2 1.8 68.6 10.5% 0.1 7 Kendrick Perkins OKC C 18 25.2 7.3 2.4 1.4 65 20.9% 0.0 8 Greg Monroe DET C 19 33.3 17.0 3.8 3.6 55.5 34.8% -0.2 9 Al Horford ATL C 13 36.5 15.7 3.4 1.8 77.2 19.0% -0.4 10 DeMarcus Cousins SAC C 14 29.6 19.5 2.5 3.1 37.8 35.0% -0.5 [/size] I think the results here are much improved and more in line with my intuition of playmaking prowess. PGs are of course heavily favored by this stat, and I've effectively reduced the rating for bigs by incorporating Ast% and ORB. In case some are wondering, I did not massage the formula to favor Harden over Lin. Passers are heavily benefited by this stat. Very inefficient players are penalized the more possessions they appear to use, however.
I've adjusted the formula so that it would instead require 1 unassisted shot to cancel two turnovers (or cancel 2 unassisted shot attempts, for that matter). I think this will address your concerns. Turnovers now entail a bigger penalty for the playmaking rating.
I'm making this up on the spot so bare with me, but here's one way to maybe estimate "hockey assists": HOCKEY_AST = (AST/TmAst) * (TmAst - AST - %Ast*FGM) / 3 where TmAst = team assists with the player on the floor. So, TmAst - AST - %Ast*FGM gives you the number of assists by teammates that didn't lead to a teammate's made shot. I assumed that 1/3 of those assists are "hockey assisted". And then I assume the percentage of those assists which the player hockey assisted is given by AST/TmAst. The (AST/TmAST) factor probably needs to be thought out more carefully. This assumes a player's likelihood of being the hockey assistant is proportional to his likelihood of being the assistant.
Wow all these stats and revised stats and so on...anyways we have two good playmakers. I think they are different in the way they make plays, but both are good. Some might like the way Lin does it and some like the way Harden does it. But this is a good thing and perhaps it would be nice to look at these stats at the end of the season, but I don't think it's necessary to keep saying one is better than the other because stats also can be manipulated and people have their biases and also preferences.
Thanks. this looks much better. The problem with talking about playmaking is that a lot of times, we ignore the "playmaking for himself" factor. We generally assume that playmaking means making plays for one's teammates. That's why players like Kobe is seldom thought of as a good playmaker. But he is a fantastic playmaker for himself.
You deliberately choose a player who has never demonstrated an ability to handle high usage -- and conclude that he won't be able to handle high usage. Well, of course. Whereas Lin showed last year that he could. Lin is actually not that far off from playing at Linsanity levels, so not much faith is needed. He has been shooting .386; to reach the excellent level of .483, he only needed to change one miss a game to a make. That's not much. So it's quite likely that Lin will eventually be at least a decent shooter -- definitely better than Harden's .369 for the last 15 games.
Sigh... Great logic there...Lin only needs to change one miss a game to a make, but Harden is slumping in a sample size of 15 games (and clearly doesn't get the same leniency of making one miss a game to a make).
Durvasa, my major criticism of your formulas (both the first and second set) is that you fail to account for how much the ball is in a player's hands. This factor hugely influences the player's points and assists, and therefore has an enormous impact on your playmaker rating. So you are not attempting to measure "playmaking ability"; you are only trying to measure "playmaking ability given that everyone has the same share of ball possession". For the top 5 guards the implied condition may actually be nearly true, which is why you think your formulas pass the smell test. When comparing Lin and Harden, however, the condition is blatantly false, as Harden clearly has the ball far more in the half court. So until you normalize to ball possession rate, I'm afraid that for Lin and Harden your numbers are meaningless.
