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Why is everyone against upgrading at PG (in the near future)?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Sen89, Nov 29, 2012.

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Alex L. Contributing Member

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CP3, yes. Deron Williams is struggling. I'll stop watching the Rockets if we get Rondo. Guy's a brat, a jerk and a punk. Can't stand him.

#221 Alex L., Dec 2, 2012

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Rudyc281 said: ↑

If cp3 becomes a free agent do we throw the max at him
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#222 Rocket PR, Dec 2, 2012
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Now, this is hitting the media.

http://sports.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981792253

#223 kianainhi, Dec 2, 2012
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We need to draft Marcus Smart from oklahoma state, kid is legit

#224 CertifiedTroll, Dec 2, 2012
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pnr said: ↑

Andre Iguodala played the Harden role on the sixers last year and Jrue Holiday's stats were pretty mediocre (13p/4a). This year, Jrue has free reign of the offense and is putting up all-star numbers (although with high turnovers-his 'linsanity' run). Lin obviously is under a new offensive system and that reflects in his stats. PLus he is still not 100 back from his knee surgery. I think we should give him one season to see how he adjusts to the system. Morey will def look to move him if he continues to struggle.
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Yes! And I hope when that happens Lin will go to LAL that will solve my dilemma. In two years, Kobe will likely retire or as he has said, pass the team to DW12. Nash also has only a 2 year deal. They will need a good pg that can run D'Antoni's system (MD signed a 4 year deal).

Honestly, I was and still am shocked to see how blind the hate is for Lin in Rockets fan base. Witnessing the Linsanity last season was the best thing that has happened to this old basketball fan in many years. You guys are so quick to throw him out, post knee injury and playing in a new team, a new coaching system with a new superstar teammate notwithstanding. I wanted to like the Rockets; in fact, I've become quite infatuated with this team. But the fan base with all their fangs is what's turning me off. For the sake of the players, I hope the team will do well this season. But they don't deserve such a fan base.

#225 TC777JLIN168, Dec 2, 2012
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torocan said: ↑

I'm not against trading Lin (or any other player) as long as it makes sense.

Getting a legitimate upgrade that fits with the age and play of the team should always be an option, whether it's Lin, Asik or Harden. No player should EVER be untouchable.

The problem here is, how many PG's can you guarantee WILL be a significant upgrade that are going to be available, that you can get for a reasonable trade or reasonable FA price relative to their production, who will also perform well with this line up, and will fit into the long term goals of the team.

That's the real problem with this question. The list doesn't really exist at this point, nor does it look to exist any time soon.

As for the ball dominant part, there are NO top flight PG's that are NOT ball dominant. Your only real choice is whether they are pass first or score first PG's. BOTH types of PG's are ball dominant.

The ROLE of PG is by definition ball dominant. This also happens to be a significant part of why Harden is ball dominant... he's effectively playing part time PG duties.

Pick a top flight PG and think about it... no matter who you put with Harden you're going to sacrifice production.

Now, if you want to play Harden as the PG and get another Shooting Guard, that's another kettle of fish. However, I don't think Harden is such an amazing facilitator that he could play that role as effectively as a true PG and STILL put up All Star scoring numbers.

As good as Harden is he's Tony Parker. Heck, he isn't even Jeremy Lin when it comes to distributing the ball.
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Words.

#226 TC777JLIN168, Dec 2, 2012
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After yesterday's game, Rockets are now ranked 3rd in the league in scoring, but 29th in points allowed.

Again, Rockets fans are so wise to see that the team urgently needs to upgrade its scoring ability. Get rid of Lin because he's not scoring enough.

#227 EarlIII, Dec 2, 2012

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dobro1229 said: ↑

There is no case because there is no counter argument. Just root for the damn team please. I think I speak for alot of people here that really want Lin to be successful. We just dont want his personal success to be a higher priority then winning.

Pretty simple stuff. Hope you become a true ROCKETS fans one of these days. We need everyone we can get, but I just hope you are a Rockets fan for the right reasons.
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Do you see any thread anywhere that says Rockets should let Lin alone shine even at the cost of team losing? I don't. If you do, please show me.

On the contrary, what you see is a lot of LOH'ers are expressing their hatred by posting threads disguised as this one or just openly insulting Lin.

#228 TC777JLIN168, Dec 2, 2012
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TC777JLIN168 said: ↑

Yes! And I hope when that happens Lin will go to LAL that will solve my dilemma. In two years, Kobe will likely retire or as he has said, pass the team to DW12. Nash also has only a 2 year deal. They will need a good pg that can run D'Antoni's system (MD signed a 4 year deal).

Honestly, I was and still am shocked to see how blind the hate is for Lin in Rockets fan base. Witnessing the Linsanity last season was the best thing that has happened to this old basketball fan in many years. You guys are so quick to throw him out, post knee injury and playing in a new team, a new coaching system with a new superstar teammate notwithstanding. I wanted to like the Rockets; in fact, I've become quite infatuated with this team. But the fan base with all their fangs is what's turning me off. For the sake of the players, I hope the team will do well this season. But they don't deserve such a fan base.
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GTFO Bandwagonner!

#229 SuperVon, Dec 2, 2012
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CertifiedTroll said: ↑

We need to draft Marcus Smart from oklahoma state, kid is legit
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Man, I was thinking the exact same thing. He'll be gone before the 14th pick though.

#230 youngshev03, Dec 2, 2012
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TC777JLIN168 said: ↑

Do you see any thread anywhere that says Rockets should let Lin alone shine even at the cost of team losing? I don't. If you do, please show me.

On the contrary, what you see is a lot of LOH'ers are expressing their hatred by posting threads disguised as this one or just openly insulting Lin.
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I fully support letting Lin develop. It is not like the Rockets have any chance of coming out of the West before 2014 - 2015. Patience people. Throwing hissy fits 16 games into the season just gets your blood pressure up.

#231 jtr, Dec 2, 2012
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Eric Bledsoe.

#232 DasouthDakota, Dec 2, 2012
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TC777JLIN168 said: ↑

Yes! And I hope when that happens Lin will go to LAL that will solve my dilemma. In two years, Kobe will likely retire or as he has said, pass the team to DW12. Nash also has only a 2 year deal. They will need a good pg that can run D'Antoni's system (MD signed a 4 year deal).

Honestly, I was and still am shocked to see how blind the hate is for Lin in Rockets fan base. Witnessing the Linsanity last season was the best thing that has happened to this old basketball fan in many years. You guys are so quick to throw him out, post knee injury and playing in a new team, a new coaching system with a new superstar teammate notwithstanding. I wanted to like the Rockets; in fact, I've become quite infatuated with this team. But the fan base with all their fangs is what's turning me off. For the sake of the players, I hope the team will do well this season. But they don't deserve such a fan base.
Click to expand...

Why are you here? Never mind. I see the date you joined.

#233 youngshev03, Dec 2, 2012

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dobro1229 said: ↑

holy crap did you not read what I say... its a he said she said thing with the stats you are throwing out there. Im saying that I can spin it to say one thing and you can spin it say another. So its pointless.

Panicky at the rim??... I think its time for you to actually watch some games. I cant believe you really think that THIS stat actually proves that Harden is more "Panicky" when he kicks out when driving to the rim........ uhhh... You LOF'ers are worse then I thought originally.
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Your last sentence is where your fox fail shows.

#234 TC777JLIN168, Dec 2, 2012
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torocan said: ↑

Actually, the problem isn't that AST% is not a perfect stat (not stat is), the problem with AST% is that it's a fundamentally flawed and misleading statistic.

Notice that within the formula it is a derivative of total Team assisted goals, in other words percentage of total assisted team buckets throughout a game. The problem with this is it inherently misrepresents assist efficiency as it's a gross volume stat.

What I mean by gross volume stat is this. Let's assume a hypothetical.

If Harden is the primary ball handler and handles the PG duties 3x as much as Lin, even if Lin is 2x more efficient, Harden will still have a 50% higher AST% as Lin. In other words, like PPG, it does NOT take into account efficiency in terms of the performance of those duties.

Now, when I talk about Lin as a facilitator, I'm specifically seperating that from his overall efficiency as a "playmaker", which you defined as being able to generate a shot for oneself AND team mates.

Harden is one of the most efficient "playmakers" in the game. This is because his ability to translate a possession into either a Shot OR an Assist that results in points is very high.

However... that does not necessarily mean that Harden should be the primary ball handler. There are multiple reasons for this, one of which is that his efficiency drops off dramatically when he is forced to play the PG AND Shooting guard roles simultaneously. It's just WAY too easy for teams to key in, double team/shadow and pack the paint (ala OKC or Miami).

When I talk about Facilitation, I actually try to look at more granular statistics (ones that attempt to isolate passing efficiency).

Now, there is no single stat that can paint an accurate picture, but when you take a look at a broad range of statistics that look at aspects of passing and they point in the same direction, I don't think you can fully discount their accuracy.

So, let's look at some...

Lin vs Harden

AST/40 - 7.2/5.2
AST+/40 - 8.3/6.1

Assist Rate - 29.36%/16.15%
Assist/TO - 2.08/1.21
Assist/Bad Pass - 5.6/2.9

%age Dunk Assists - 22.78%/17.18%
%age Close Assists - 30.37%/20.31%
%age 3pt Assists - 29.11%/37.5%
%age Jumpshot Assists - 17.72%/25.0%

%age Jumpshot+3pt Assists - 46.83%/62.5%
%age Dunk + Close Assists - 53.15%/37.5%

Offensive Fouls - 3/7
Bad Passes - 14/22
Ball Handling Turnovers 21/24

%age of TO's from passes - 36.8%/41.5%

Notice that even after isolating Harden's playmaking (looking exclusively at passes attempted), every stat category favors Lin in terms of passing. Not just the number of successful passes leading to points scored, but the Quality of those passes, as well as the number of turnovers as a ratio compared to general assists.

Even if you completely exclude Harden's general ball handling TO's and adjust for passes attempted, the percentage of passes he attempts that result in TO's is higher than Lin's.

Now, whether that's due to Harden being double teamed more (as the primary offensive threat and PG simultaneously), or simply due to him being an inferior general passer (debatable), what is indisputable is the shots that result from his Facilitating is simply inferior.

Lin produces higher quality shots for his team mates, which statistically will always result in higher point production when viewed purely in terms of facilitation. In other words, Lin makes his team mates better MORE than Harden makes his team mates better.

That doesn't mean that Harden is NOT the less efficient playmaker. That actually can't be determined from passing stats exclusively. What it does mean is that Lin elevates those around him more, and that would include elevating Harden's shooting due to the quality of looks.

Does this mean Harden shouldn't be the primary "playmaker"? Not necessarily. However, I still maintain that it makes sense in terms of clock usage for Lin to *initially* generate shooting opportunities, but for those playmaking opportunities to work their way to Harden more often than to other players on the team in general.

In more broad strategic terms, it's also good strategy to start the ball AWAY from Harden more often. Not only does this give opposing defenses more different offensive looks to deal with, this gives Harden more room to operate off the ball, and more importantly to work with cutters and screens to give him open space opportunities to either isolate a defender, or to initiate a Pick and Roll without being under immediate double team pressure.

Anyway, just some more stuff to think about.
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Thank you for teaching us. Really appreciate your post.

#235 TC777JLIN168, Dec 2, 2012
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How much longer are people going to say that 'Lin still hasn't recovered from knee surgery'? He had a small meniscus tear in his left knee repaired 8 months ago. He should be 100% by now.

#236 Kwame, Dec 2, 2012
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kianainhi said: ↑

Now, this is hitting the media.

http://sports.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981792253
Click to expand...

You never know the future, nothing is impossible.

#237 beta ticket, Dec 2, 2012
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torocan said: ↑

Actually, the problem isn't that AST% is not a perfect stat (not stat is), the problem with AST% is that it's a fundamentally flawed and misleading statistic.

Notice that within the formula it is a derivative of total Team assisted goals, in other words percentage of total assisted team buckets throughout a game. The problem with this is it inherently misrepresents assist efficiency as it's a gross volume stat.

What I mean by gross volume stat is this. Let's assume a hypothetical.

If Harden is the primary ball handler and handles the PG duties 3x as much as Lin, even if Lin is 2x more efficient, Harden will still have a 50% higher AST% as Lin. In other words, like PPG, it does NOT take into account efficiency in terms of the performance of those duties.

Now, when I talk about Lin as a facilitator, I'm specifically seperating that from his overall efficiency as a "playmaker", which you defined as being able to generate a shot for oneself AND team mates.

Harden is one of the most efficient "playmakers" in the game. This is because his ability to translate a possession into either a Shot OR an Assist that results in points is very high.

However... that does not necessarily mean that Harden should be the primary ball handler. There are multiple reasons for this, one of which is that his efficiency drops off dramatically when he is forced to play the PG AND Shooting guard roles simultaneously. It's just WAY too easy for teams to key in, double team/shadow and pack the paint (ala OKC or Miami).

When I talk about Facilitation, I actually try to look at more granular statistics (ones that attempt to isolate passing efficiency).

Now, there is no single stat that can paint an accurate picture, but when you take a look at a broad range of statistics that look at aspects of passing and they point in the same direction, I don't think you can fully discount their accuracy.

So, let's look at some...

Lin vs Harden

AST/40 - 7.2/5.2
AST+/40 - 8.3/6.1

Assist Rate - 29.36%/16.15%
Assist/TO - 2.08/1.21
Assist/Bad Pass - 5.6/2.9

%age Dunk Assists - 22.78%/17.18%
%age Close Assists - 30.37%/20.31%
%age 3pt Assists - 29.11%/37.5%
%age Jumpshot Assists - 17.72%/25.0%

%age Jumpshot+3pt Assists - 46.83%/62.5%
%age Dunk + Close Assists - 53.15%/37.5%

Offensive Fouls - 3/7
Bad Passes - 14/22
Ball Handling Turnovers 21/24

%age of TO's from passes - 36.8%/41.5%

Notice that even after isolating Harden's playmaking (looking exclusively at passes attempted), every stat category favors Lin in terms of passing. Not just the number of successful passes leading to points scored, but the Quality of those passes, as well as the number of turnovers as a ratio compared to general assists.

Even if you completely exclude Harden's general ball handling TO's and adjust for passes attempted, the percentage of passes he attempts that result in TO's is higher than Lin's.

Now, whether that's due to Harden being double teamed more (as the primary offensive threat and PG simultaneously), or simply due to him being an inferior general passer (debatable), what is indisputable is the shots that result from his Facilitating is simply inferior.

Lin produces higher quality shots for his team mates, which statistically will always result in higher point production when viewed purely in terms of facilitation. In other words, Lin makes his team mates better MORE than Harden makes his team mates better.

That doesn't mean that Harden is NOT the less efficient playmaker. That actually can't be determined from passing stats exclusively. What it does mean is that Lin elevates those around him more, and that would include elevating Harden's shooting due to the quality of looks.

Does this mean Harden shouldn't be the primary "playmaker"? Not necessarily. However, I still maintain that it makes sense in terms of clock usage for Lin to *initially* generate shooting opportunities, but for those playmaking opportunities to work their way to Harden more often than to other players on the team in general.

In more broad strategic terms, it's also good strategy to start the ball AWAY from Harden more often. Not only does this give opposing defenses more different offensive looks to deal with, this gives Harden more room to operate off the ball, and more importantly to work with cutters and screens to give him open space opportunities to either isolate a defender, or to initiate a Pick and Roll without being under immediate double team pressure.

Anyway, just some more stuff to think about.
Click to expand...

WOW!!

Is that Daryl Morey posting on Clutchfans?

#238 highlander3128, Dec 2, 2012

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"Why is everyone against upgrading at PG"

For the same reason why you can't make a poll's with Lin anymore... These forums are flooded with Lin's "fangirls"

#239 w00t, Dec 2, 2012
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w00t said: ↑

"Why is everyone against upgrading at PG"

For the same reason why you can't make a poll's with Lin anymore... These forums are flooded with Lin's "fangirls"
Click to expand...

No worries. We always have haters like you to balance things out.

#240 DreamWeaver, Dec 2, 2012

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