Were the Texans 9-1 after 10 games in 2010? Now EVERYONE in the stadium knows that the Texans are going to run down the clock by having Foster run straight ahead. In 2010 the Texans were not as confident in their defense and the Texans were not always protecting a lead.
I thought part of the reason for the running struggles might have been getting up early and running the ball more often. But compared to last year, that's not really the case. Through 10 games this year we've had 335 passes and 350 runs. Through 10 games last year we'd thrown the ball 292 times and had run it 357 times. That was all pre-Schaub injury. We are using Arian at a higher rate than we did last year. This year, Arian accounts for 71% of our rushes. Taking out the 3 games he missed last season, Foster accounted for 62% of our rushes last year. I get that Tate has been injured and has missed games. But he played well when healthy and Forsett has played well in the backup role as well. Both have a higher YPC than Foster does. Offensive line isn't has good as it was. Foster isn't as good as he was. We're overusing Foster. There are many reasons why the run game has fallen off this year.
2010, Foster led the league in rushing....2011, we had a top 3 defense. Teams focused on Arian last season just as much as any other time. How about last season with Yates as the QB? Did teams not focus on stopping the run and having Yates beat us? Its not like we were a high flying passing team last season. The Ravens knew, in the playoffs, that Foster would run the ball...and we still dominated that aspect of the game.
So when Yates was the QB teams didn't think they needed to stop Foster so they let him run for more yards?
I think it's pretty well documented we've been ahead in games, and controlled the clock, longer and more often than we did last year. That, and the new right side, are the two biggest factors IMO.
pretty much sums it up. I would like to think that a healthy Tate would have helped lighten Arian's load the last few games but we'll have to wait and see when he returns. He didn't seem to help that much when he was around early in the year. I'm still not overtly concerned about the running game because they still have been pretty good. I do think when you consider all variables, such as having big leads and just grinding out the clock late, it's understandable that the YPC stats aren't as good. Even with that being said though, it's clear the Oline and Arian haven't been as effective.
Agreed. This is my point. It's doesn't boil down to "well that's just what happens when defenses focus on you."
To me the biggest reason I'm not that worried about it is Matt Schaub playing at a high level. As long as he's healthy and playing well we don't need Arian to be THE BEST running back in the game.
I agree there are multiple factors at play, but I consider the situational running to be the largest reason for the dropoff in avg. With the OL play being second, and Arian's decline in personal ability a very, very distant third (I attribute this more to Tate's absence, really). Nook makes a valid point. The OL does not suddenly forget how to run block in the second half. Teams stack up and key on Arian in order to get the ball back (in addition to more conservative playcalling). Pretty simple.
Or he could be used less in the 1st half (Kubiak likes to throw more) leading to a smaller sample size, he could have an extra big run in the 1st half that is skewing the numbers, etc. Without a way to actually go through the first half vs second half stats in more detail it's impossible to assign them much meaning.
It's a large combination of factors, none of which signal doom: Carries Per Game 2011: 21.4 2012: 24.9 % of Carries Among Texan RBs: 2011: 54.5% 2012: 74.8% Add in that the retooled line has been largely ineffective opening holes up the middle and to the right. Add in that we've gone from Leach to Casey/Vickers to Casey at FB over the last 3 years. Add in that Kubiak's introduced a newfound heavy emphasis on winning Time of Possession each game: -->We lead the league in Rushing Attempts and are t-21 for Passing, with a 350:335 ratio. There's weight to the argument about him being used to close out games: Q1 = 55 carries Q2 = 57 carries Q3 = 65 Q4 = 68 65% of carries are with a lead Also weight with regard to defenses keying in on him: Chicago stacked the box in an unreal manner against him Buffalo was so locked in on him, they were completely undressed each time Matt ran out a boot Ditto against Jacksonville when we came out in a big formation near the goal line and Matt hit Casey. Is what it is. Hopefully we see more of a rotation moving forward so Foster isn't held back by dead legs in January. The right side as slowly progressed over the year, so I'm optimistic we can get some more plays going behind Jones and Newton. The Butler-Caldwell combination was atrocious.
I think it's safe to assume he's running less in the 1st half. How much less? I'd guess 40/60 split or so. But as Sam pointed out, the playcalling in Kubiak 'don't f*** up' mode is less than inspired, and Tate hasn't been available to take away those garbage carries, either.
I'd point to the O-Line. Sure Foster hasn't been as effective, but ask "Why?" It's not age, he's only 26. I think his lack of explosion directly relates to a lack of cutback lanes and gaps to explode into. I still see Foster avoiding the big hits and falling foward for extra yards. I don't however see Foster trying to cutback or explode through a hole and not getting there because he's lost a step. Granted, early on he had trouble staying on his feet and not slipping all over the place, but I haven't seen that happening as much. I am concerned about the amount of carries he's getting. Speaking of... Ben Tate has really been disappointing this year. He's spent more time in the dog house and training room than he has on the field. However, I predict that he'll be fresh and make some big plays down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Yes, this is something I miss. Bubble screens to Arian were very effective. Kubiak has not called many screens this year which is strange as we are regarded as one of the better screen teams in the game. With that said I think that is why the bubble screen to Johnson was killer because we had not run that play much at all so the defense was not expecting it.
This is what I told a buddy of mine. Maybe Kubes hopes teams forget Arian in the screen plays and brings them back. I can't say we've really run too many screens this season, at least not as much as before. Even rolling Foster out near the sidelines like the big plays in Tampa and Tennessee last year. GO TEXANS!!
About Arian's carries, I've heard the coach say more than once that Arian doesn't want to come out of the game. He said Arian is fine with the workload and even wants to play more. Kubiak said that's the kind of players he wants; that those are the special ones. I do think things might change a bit if Tate is totally healthy. Do you remember his demeaner after the playoff loss last year. Dude was PISSED! I think that has carried over and he's trying his best to make sure that moment doesn't happen again this year.
you know how the running game will improve? by kubiak either letting Schaub loose on offense and go more no huddle or throw more often. hes extremely conservative and its killing our offensive flow. Hes faaar too controlling and its to the hinderance of Matt and the O. I never have approved of kubiaks play calling and decision making, too often he plays not to lose and Im simply fearful of our prospects making it to the SB.
I saw Arian emphatically waive Forsett off in OT when the Texans got down to the 9 yard line. In fact, he might have done that when we got into the redzone at the end of regulation, too.
Does it seem like Foster dives to the ground a lot before he gets hit. It seems like a lot of his runs consist of him making a cut and then he dives forward for a three yard gain. Remember when runners used to run over defenders and then keep on running. I wonder if Foster is afraid of fumbling, so he goes to the ground instead of trying to fight through tacklers.
