Hollinger has a recent article on this topic. Pasted for your reading pleasure. See spoiler. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-121109/where-did-all-offense-go Where did all the offense go? League-wide offensive efficiency ratings are down (PER Diem: Nov. 9, 2012) Spoiler Originally Published: November 9, 2012 <cite class="source"> By John Hollinger | ESPN.com</cite> The Hornets were held to 62 points -- a franchise low -- against the Sixers. Were you hoping for more offense this season, now that there isn't a lockout? Well, you might have to check your ambitions. As anyone who witnessed the nationally televised Sixers-Hornets stink bomb Wednesday night can attest, quality offense has been difficult to find in the early part of this season. A brief sample of the evening's action tells you the problem is more widespread than just one game: 26 teams were in action, and only 10 managed to hit the century mark in regulation. Casting a wider net seems to reinforce this point. The Sixers and Wizards have shooting percentages in the 30s. Sacramento and Toronto have offensive efficiency marks in the 80s. Chicago has yet to make a 3-pointer. (OK, I exaggerated that last point. Slightly.) I'll offer the usual caveats: It's early, and league-wide numbers can and do change fairly dramatically over the course of the season. But relative to the last two seasons, the NBA appears to be in a bit of an offensive funk. Through Wednesday's games, the league-wide offensive efficiency rating is a fairly pathetic 99.8, well short of last season's league average of 101.8. Compared to the last full season, 2010-11, it's not even close; that season, the league-wide mark was 104.5. Astute observers will note that I'm not exactly comparing apples to apples here. Offense tends to increase fairly steadily over the course of the regular season before diminishing a bit once the playoffs start. But even if we compare similar points in the campaign, this season is looking like a bit of a stinker for the offenses. Two weeks into the 2011-12 season, the league-wide offensive efficiency mark was 99.3, so the NBA is at least ahead of lockout-ball -- but not by much. The data so far is more similar to that season than the 2010-11 campaign, where by Nov. 7 the league-wide mark was already 102.2. If the recent trend that league-wide offensive efficiency rises about three points over the course of the season continues, the NBA is headed for a net result that is only marginally better than the post-lockout ugliness. Last season's efficiency rose just a bit more than two points, but with a 66-game schedule there was less time for the average to rise. The one saving grace is that the NBA is playing at a quicker pace that is more similar to 2010-11, with a league-wide mark of 95.3 through Wednesday that rivals the 95.7 mark at a similar point in 2010-11. So what's the problem? Tightening the focus a bit, shooting from the floor hasn't changed much, especially inside the arc. The league is shooting 47 percent on 2-pointers, slightly worse than the 47.1 percent from the first two weeks of last season. The only saving grace is that it's doing better on 3-pointers and free throws, which suggests that the change in 2s is more a result of defenses stepping up their game than offenses failing. Even compared to 2010-11, the results aren't that different in the shooting department: That season, teams opened by shooting 48 percent on 2s. Given all that, you might find it odd that the overall level of offense has declined so much. No, the shooting percentages aren't much different, but you know what is? The free throws. Whether the refs are letting more stuff go or the defenders have learned to stop fouling is up for debate, but what's clear is that free throw attempts have dipped sharply. In 2010-11 at this point, the league-wide average was 0.32 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. In 2011-12, it was 0.29, but again, the lockout was partly to blame. And this season? Just 0.273 -- a decline of 14.7 percent from two years earlier. Basically, one-seventh of the free throw attempts are gone, so apparently it wasn't just the Nuggets. Since free throw attempts are far and away the most efficient way to score, the impact on offensive efficiency is obvious. That difference alone is worth a full point of true shooting percentage, which in turn is worth nearly two points of offensive efficiency, which in turn is the vast majority of the difference between now and 2010-11. If you're wondering, this is only partially due to an increased reliance on the 3-pointer. League 3-point rates have been fairly stable over the past three years, gently rising from 22.2 percent of attempts in early 2010-11 to this season's 23.9 percent. An increase in 3-point tries that small shouldn't produce a decrease in free throw rates that large. • The other culprit in the offensive malaise is turnovers. League-wide, it's 16.7 percent of possessions, a dramatic increase from the 15.4 percent of lockout-ball and a rise even on the 16.4 percent of 2010-11. • Offensive rebounding, after years of steady decline, appears to be on a slight uptick. Teams have regained 27.2 percent of their misses, compared to 26.8 percent and 26.6 percent in the early parts of the past two seasons. • Free throw shooting has found a middle ground, settling in at 75.3 percent -- right between the 76.3 percent of 2010-11 and the 74.3 percent of last season. • Shots are getting blocked with far more frequency -- or at least, they're being recorded on the stat sheet with more frequency. Two years ago, 6.01 percent of shots were blocked. This season, that number is 6.84 percent. What makes that more impressive is that the league is shooting more 3s, which are generally difficult to block, and that the fouls have increased without a rise in free throw attempts. As for the implications of all this, that remains to be seen. But one would presume it would favor teams that can make 3s and defend against them and hurt teams that are too dependent on getting to the line. Certainly the Nuggets have been one of those clubs in the early season, while the Heat offer a counterexample of a 3-point dependent offense succeeding wildly. Nonetheless, we're talking about small differences at the margin, changes that are really only perceptible when you look at league-wide data -- or, perhaps, when you watch a Sixers-Hornets game. The Jazz still aren't going to be able to have a good defense while fouling on every other play, the Nets will still struggle if opponents keep shooting 52.2 percent on 2s, and the Bulls can still play quasi-decent offense by crashing the boards and drawing fouls. From a watchability standpoint, one could argue all these shifts are for the better. Fewer free throw attempts mean less game stoppage. More 3-point attempts typically translate into more excitement, not to mention variability -- both within games and between them. Finally, a faster pace is something nearly every fan favors. If we have to trade in a couple of points per game in that bargain, that might be a change with which we can live.
Good point. I think some players played few minutes to qualify for the ranking of this season yet. So you should take the ranking of this season with a grain of salt - for example Harden's defense so far is actually worse than the ranking indicated.
I'm surprised by Lin's numbers honestly. However, I have noticed his defense is far improved from last year going by the eye test.
Synergy has thus far recorded a total of 79 plays to gauge Lin's defense this season. His steal total thus far is 16. I'm not sure if all of those 16 steals are included among the 79 total. If they are, then about 20% of his defensive plays have resulted in steals and therefore 0 points for those possessions. That is likely a big reason why his PPP is so low.
Lin really isn't a "lockdown" defender per se, his defense is a combination of his fast hands (steals) and his ability to Alter shots. He's fairly quick in terms of staying in front of other guards, more importantly when a guard gets the step on him, he's one of the quicker guards in terms of closing the distance and forcing a lower percentage shot. Guys like Sefolosha who block shots or "lockdown" perimeter defenders that "shut down" players tend to get all the press. However, the ability to force a worse shot through well placed body positioning or harassment of a shooter can be just as effective. In other words, if your shot is off balance, or you are forced to shoot a lower percentage shot because Lin drives you to the side, or he messes up your rhythm because his hands are everywhere and make you uncomfortable, it has similar (if not quite as spectacular) effects in terms of how often you can score. His synergy rating last year put him signicantly above average (#128) -- a decent result considering there are approximately 400 players in the NBA. This season he has noticably improved in terms of his ability to pester defenders with not only his quick hands, but his ability to cut off his man, or drive them to the side to areas they are less comfortable in terms of shooting. And once in a while you'll see him really body up someone like the 24s lockdown of Gallinari. Last season, one issue he had defensively is that he would draw too many fouls while playing defense. It's hard to say how much of his effectiveness this season is improved play, and how much is the fact that referees are clearly letting ALOT more go on the floor in terms of contact. Watching alot of games, I'm noticing that refs have let ALOT more contact go. I wonder how much of that is due to the psychological impact of the new anti-flopping rules on the referees. If you're a referree, the last thing you want is to be the guy who gets a lot of your calls slammed by the league in post-game review. That said, the sample is still small. We'll see how it pans out over the season. I would be seriously surprised if his defensive ranking did Not end up dropping considerably as the sample increases. That said, I could easily see him breaking the top #100 in terms of defensive rankings by Synergy.
Also Harden is being asked to do way to much. He has the highest USG of NBA SG's playing 30+ minutes, higher than Kobe. He is also averaging 40 minutes a game which is a lot considering that not to long ago he was coming off the bench. His minutes need to come down same with his USG.
Yes, there seems more contact allowed across the board but is the level of contact allowed consistent within individual games? It's not obvious to me it is. If the league is indeed allowing more contact going forward, I think the connection is not just to the new flopping rules but the league's concern about making games shorter -- as indicated by the recent curtailing of time for pre-game rituals. Fewer free throws means fewer interruptions to the entertainment, delivered in less time. I'm fine with that too, as I like seeing more physical play, as long as the officiating is consistent within each game.
Wade might be better. The one time Lin matched up on Wade last year, Wade tried to post him up and got stripped by Lin (with no help), if I remember correctly.
It actually has been mentioned several times. It does confirm my enthusiasm about the defense this year. Defense will tell you many important things about a team. Individual effort, team rotations, defensive philosophies passed down from the coaching staff, and just the plain grit of the team members. The offensive playbook got torn up after Harden signed. The coaching staff and the team are still recovering from that. It looks like the defensive playbook is intact and doing well. McHale and staff should be congratulated for that.
Parsons assignment will be LBJ. Won't stop him from scoring but Parsons will hopefully reduce LeBron's offensive efficiency. Who will guard Wade? I would think that the obvious answer is Lin or Harden. Good luck to them.
I'm pleasantly surprised by the defense... youngest team in the league too. I just hope the offense starts clicking soon, because it's painful to watch.
I think Lin is better defender than given credit for, but would be better to compare him against other guards. I mean, the stat is probably skewed because PGs tend to use more possessions than other positions.
One thing I would like to see when people are posting stats, particularly this early in the season, is a strength-of-schedule metric. I can't help but feel that these numbers have been boosted by playing against Detroit for 1/3 of the games. Then again, they did play Detroit and Memphis too. Intuitively I would think that that's an average schedule, but Detroit has been so bad, it might actually be below-average.
http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS ESPN assesses strength of schedule based on last season's record. By that metric, Houston ranks 28th.
