immigration is a relatively new policy that for the most part has come full throttle with the recession. (those mexicans are taking our jobs) it really wasn't a part of the southern strategy and if the economy continues to improve and mexican cartels stop waging a war on the border i think it will die down as a political topic.
Here's the problem with that strategy. Eventually, things are going to pick up. Maybe not right away, maybe we won't rebound as high, but eventually things will get better. With that, you'll have voters on the coasts who - despite being conservative with foreign or fiscal policy - will be scared of some of the more radical elements of the GOP. That's not a problem with controlling Congress, but it is when you're trying to win the presidency, because unfortunately for the GOP most of the base (Bible Belt, Midwest) has a very small number of electoral votes.
Demographics. Every election, it will get more difficult and they will have a higher threshold to cross to win, simply because the new people in society are all demographically left-leaning. As Lindsey Graham said, “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”
It would surprise me to see an ideological fight in the Republican party in 2014 to 2016. The TEA Party is going to be diminished but will wield enough power to that Republicans will have to reckon with it but moderates and others who see the problems that the TEA Party has caused will try to retain control. I think you will see a somewhat more fractured Republican party in 2014 and then in 2016 a full blown fight between moderates and conservatives about who will be standard bearer. The person who wins won't be like Romney who was really a moderate but pandered to pretty much everyone but someone with a clear ideology.
I remember anti-immigrant vitrol as early as 2006, although that may be because of the high number of immigrants in my area. I think that the "Know-Nothing" anti-american stance goes hand in hand with some of the other ideas the fringe have.
I totally agree that demographics are going against them and much of the Tea Party and Romney campaign rhetoric was catering to the fears of whites. To survive in a true plural US they will have to change but the base of the party will not let go and I suspect you see some more retrenchment among many of those who are not going to easily allow the party to be taken in another direction.
I bet they end up successful. I'd like them to die and be reborn, but they keep rebounding while being less and less moderate.
I think you meant, "it wouldn't surprise me," judo. I hope they have a big fight. I hope they have several big fights. While they are fighting, the Democratic Party can take control. The only thing that could help the GOP in the short term is a charismatic leader that wins the presidency in 2016. I just don't see it. While I'm not sure who gets the Democratic nod in 2016, there are Democrats who could make a successful run if someone like Ryan headed up the GOP ticket. Hillary could beat him like a drum, but I don't know if she's going to run. I'll be surprised if Joe Biden has the fire in the belly to run in 4 years. Could be wrong about that. I can see Bloomberg running as a Democrat in 2016. Lord knows, he has the money. We'll see. Who could run in 2016 for the GOP? Ryan? Christie? Who else? Looks grim for them, folks.
Ryan will definitely run. I don't know about Christie, on one hand he seems to be admired and would probably be a frontrunner for the nominee. On the other hand, he seems to legitimately care about running New Jersey, I don't see him as a career politician. If he runs for re-election (next year) then I don't think he runs for president in 2016. So who does that leave us with?
I voted in Romney and was disappointed in the loss. I voted for economic reasons. The Republicans NEED to shift their strategy and foundation. Get out of the morality and immigration business, stick strictly to smaller government and lower taxes. Hey, the Whigs called, they said out of touch parties do not survive.
One thing I'd bet money on, if I were a betting person. Romney is history. By the time the GOP unfairly blames Romney for everything that went wrong, he'll be the Poster Boy for demonization. Just watch. Everything will be Romney's fault. None of it will be the fault of party policy, party leadership, party talking heads, party news organizations, etc..
Of course there will be some change in the Republican party as you would expect in the aftermath of any defeat. But the size of this loss was much smaller than 2008 and of course 2010 was a republican win as well. I have the following suggestions and thoughts. First, the party has got to get the extreme fringe under control. STOP RUNNING THEM AS CANDIDATES! Every time one of those idiots speaks about abortion, they find a way to screw it up and get headlines which scares the hell out of young women. The best way to combat this is to find some qualified women to run or be spokespersons for the party. Someone like Susanna Martinez (who also would help with the latino vote). The party HAS to find a way to quell the belief that a Republican president means the end of Roe vs. Wade. Secondly, the Republicans would do well to work with the President on immigration reform and get something done on this in the next 4 years. Republicans are being watched closely by the Latino vote which continues to grow with each electorate. Beyond that, I would say the results of the election speak more to the candidate they were running against rather than any huge changes that need to be made. Obama is a transformational figure in the Democratic party, but he IS now effectively a lame duck. 2016 will come and he will not be the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile there are many young exciting conservative candidates (Rubio, Walker, Martinez, Ryan) who will perhaps be that same transformational figure for Republicans. In my 48 years, one thing I've noticed has remained constant. The public tires of one party domination after awhile. Neither Dems or Reps are perfect and when that day comes for Democrats, Republicans will have there day.
According to Kraughthamer on Fox news they shouldn't do anything different. Not sure if he's secretly working for the dems.
I really don't think so. Immigrants tend to be a bit more aware that there are wealthy folks who might not really want to see them do real well. Many come from countries where you have much more class consciousness and awareness of unions. BTW in Mexico City and some big cities in South American gays are just about as well accepted as here. As you see with even upper-middle class blacks, people tend to remember discrimination for at least a generation or two despite income gains.
I want to comment specifically on the immigrant/ Hispanic theme. At the time I was so hoping that Bush would be stupid on the issue like they did in CA. Without TX the GO would be a minority party for a generation. I am hopeful that recent stuff in Arizona and in their primaries has made the message strong enough. Also iirc only 3% of US Hispanics are Cuban.
I agree with this. Latinos are very much in line when looking at social rights. Gay rights, abortion, etc...Latinos would be the optimal target group for the republicans to make up for the bleeding off white voters to the dems. Immigration is the ONLY thing standing between courting the latino vote. After Obama's back to back victories, I think that white republicans will be willing to compromise on immigration.
He did talk about capping deductions, but gave very limited answers on what they would cap and the real issue was that the deductions he admitted he would cap would only cover a small part of the total costs. For what it is worth I do not have an issue cutting deductions, but I do not believe enough people believed Romney would not cut the mortgage deduction, child deduction and other deductions the lower and middle class rely on.
