Exactly...and my point is against high powered offenses, you cant always depend on the defense, which Kubiak has been doing. We lost to the Saints in a bad loss last year, we lost to the Packers this season...and like I pointed out, none of the superbowl champions do what the Texans do. Obviously we are trying to win the superbowl, so why not learn a thing or two from the Steelers, Colts, Patriots, Packers, and Giants? Theyve all been very successful and it doesnt hurt to pick up on a few things from champions. I dont think its coincidence that all those teams have the same mentality on 3rd and long. The last thing Im doing is complaining about the offense. Why would you assume that is what Im doing here? Im criticizing Kubiak as a coach. Im sorry if I dont think he's amazing...I think he's a good coach, but I wouldnt say he's been exceptional. And for him to be exceptional, I think he should fix the little things...like 3rd and long situations. Coughlin, Tomlin, Dungy, McCarthy, Belichick, etc...learn from the best.
While I sincerely appreciate anyone willing to take the time to look up facts to back their point... you're removing an AWFUL lot of context - what was the score? What yardline were they on? How many times did they throw - is that % agreeably more or less than the other teams you cited? Not to mention - how many did they convert? If they're 100% on 3rd-and-long runs, who cares? With Schaub healthy, the Texans are 14-4 in their last 18 games, and have won 11 of 12 overall. Complaining about a micro-facet of the game for this team is, I'm sorry, nitpicking. Well, now your hair-splitting starts to fall apart. Beyond leaning on your defense, what's the best way to stop a high-powered offense? Right, keeping them on the bench and controlling the clock. A run in that situation in one less play at the end of the game, etc. That's what he wants to do. It's also 40 extra seconds for your defense to rest, regroup. If they were blowing games, OK - there might be something worth discussing. But routinely winning by double-digits seems like a silly time to complain about the offensive-minded head coach.
To add to your response, it is funny how some fans just completely despise the draw on 3rd and long no matter the situation. You are telling me if it is 3rd and 15 and the defense has 6 db's on the field and 1 linebacker leaving the middle of the field wide open with a 14 pt. lead you wouldn't consider suprising the other team with a safe draw to one of the best running backs in football that will at the very least pick up some yardage? Foster actually picked up the first down on 3rd and long in the Buffalo game which I thought was a great call. Also, Kubiak tried to drive down the field with about a minute left against Buffalo and wasn't successful. Timeouts were called so we could get the ball back. I do agree against teams like Green Bay, New England, etc. Kubiak will have to be more aggressive on 3rd downs and near halftime but I think he has learned his lesson on this and is starting to get a bit more aggressive. There is a time and place for the draw on 3rd and long and considering a first down was actually picked up in the last game I have no issue with this. If we only get 5 yards on that play then it is better than an incompletion where no yards are gained. Now we punt with hopefully 5 more yards of field position and the oppossing offense has that many more yards to gain against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Kubiak FTW!
put me on the i told you so list. three years ago i told people they would be crazy to fire him. one game sold me on kubiak, david carr goes for negative seventeen passing yards, ron dayne is your running back and you win on the road in oakland now that's a ball coach my friends
No one is saying he's the best coach in the league. The poll just said he's one of the most underrated. That might mean fans put him in the bottom 15 when he's actually in the top 15 of current head coaches.
The majority of 3rd and long run plays have occurred in the first half...and the only 3rd and long we have converted on a run play was just this last week against Buffalo. So, we are 1 for 12 on those 3rd down runs. Most of the runs have ranged from -4 yards to 3 yards. Again, Im not complaining about the team or their performance. Im judging Kubiak. I dont think he is an exceptional coach, because he has clearly "stepped" up his coaching with the addition of Wade and FAs. His offense has always been the same. Except now, since we stop people and are winning, he is "underrated". Please. He's done nothing differently now than before. You are pointing to the fact that we can keep a high powered offense off the field by running the ball and milking an additional 40 seconds off the clock. Well, how about if we pass on 3rd and long and get a first down 50% of the time? Not only are we extending the drive at least 3-4 plays...but we are also giving ourselves a chance to score. Again, we can go around in circles all day long. This is the one aspect of Kubiak's coaching that I have not agreed with. I think it shows that we are playing not to lose. And I'll keep mentioning it all day...there is a reason the best teams in the NFL have passed the ball on 3rd and long...at a 95% rate.
Ive taken context into account. And Ive said plenty of times through this thread that if we have a lead in the 4th, I run the ball, every time, on 3rd down. You can look up the stats yourself...Kubiak does this in the first half just as often as he does it in the 2nd half.
No, the defense and Arian Foster kept us in the game against the Ravens. Having a 5th round rookie starting lost us the game.
Oh so does that mean you also need an offense to win? If so, then the Texans must be doing something right no offense at 7-1.
Rivers forces bad throws, does Schaub? About the third and long draws: So we have run it on third and long(what should be obvious passing situtations) and only gained -3 to +4 yards every time save one??? I'm guessing the draws do so poorly because the tendencies show that the Texans will run a draw out of that situation a good part of the time...
The Texans have passed the ball on 26 3rd and long situations this seasons. Here are the results. 11 incomplete passes leading to punts. 14 completions...leading to 3 TDs and 3 FGs. The non-scoring drives led to better field position. 1 int...This was in the Jets game where Cromartie interecepted the ball 25-30 yards downfield. So, 14 out of 26 times, the result has been positive. 54% of the time, the decision to pass has led to more milking of the clock and better field position. And almost 25% of the time, the decision to pass put up points on the board. We scored 30 points over the course of 26 pass attempts on 3rd and long. In conclusion, you pass the ball on 3rd and long. Its very clear to me and it should be to most everyone here. (And no, Im not talking about passing the ball on 3rd and long in the 4th with a 16 point lead).
All you're talking about is throwing more on 3rd and long. Is that not talking about the offense? I would be interested to see exactly how many times we've ran a draw play on 3rd and long (longer than 10 yards) in the 1st half this season. I'll even work with you and include short screen passes, which are admittedly the same thing: 2 times against Miami - W 30-10 1 time against J-ville - W 27-7 0 times against Denver - W 31-25 1 time against tennessee - W 38-14 1 time against NY - W 23-17 1 time against GB - L 42-24 1 time against Baltimore - W 43-13 1 time against Buffalo - W 21-9 So yes, we do seem to do it a lot (IF you include short screen passes that have the potential to be big plays with Foster). But in exactly NONE of these games have any of these 8 plays had any negative effect on the final score. (GB game was just a total egg-fart from the opening kickoff) I mean, we're talking about 8 plays in 8 games here.
First off, I think Rivers is and has been one of the most overrated QBs in the league. I dont put his smarts up with the Schaub. Schaub doesnt throw stupid interceptions nearly as much as other QBs in the league. Secondly, there were only like four 3rd and 8+ yard situations in the game against the Broncos and none of them had any impact on the outcome of the game. Rivers through dumb interceptions in that game, but that really has nothing to do with playcalling a pass play on 3rd and 8.
The coach calls the plays. The chargers don't have very good receivers so what looks like a bad throw is probably the best option from the QBs POV. Point is, if the coach called for a run, punt, and take time off the clock. The opponent's offence has less time and more yards to cover to score. Yes, there's very little chance the run play makes the first down because it is expected but it's been working for all of the Texans' wins this season.
3rd and 8 is 3rd and long...not sure why you are only including 3rd and 10 or longer. And no, the offense, in general, is run very, very well. 3rd and long situations account for a very minor percentage of the offense. But, I do think that if we improved in this area, then we would be almost impossible to stop. We've shown that it is in our benefit to pass on 3rd down...so no reason to run.
A couple of key points here. First of all, in their seven victories, the Texans’ halftime leads have been: 17, 17, 10, 7, 10, 26, 1. Yes, running on third and long is conservative – but it’s not counter to winning football games. I’ve argued this previously – but a run in that situation minimizes the single most important thing you CAN’T do in that circumstance: turn the ball over. There are very few things that can go wrong on a running play; essentially: fumbling and going out of bounds to stop the clock (if clock is an issue). Very few running plays lose significant yards. A pass play, however, invites a host of dangers: interceptions, sacks/loss of field position, fumbles, clock stoppage… And because very few plays in football are designed to run beyond 10-15 yards, the defense inherently has the advantage - *if you choose to pass up field* - because it knows you’re going to run (mostly) 5-15-yards and they can almost universally, and completely, sit on your routes. This increases the likelihood of throwing an interception, and because coverage is likely tighter, increases the likelihood of a sack. That’s why conversion %s on third-and-long passes are roughly the same as third-and-long runs. I think your quibbling about three plays a game as a basis to blast his rating is EXACTLY why he’s underrated. You’re making up statistics. The average conversion of a third-and-long (run or pass) is actually roughly the same: under 40%. In fact, it might actually be *better* to run:
Two examples from that game in the 2nd half and SD leading: 3rd and 8 (11:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 12-R.Meachem INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Carter at DEN 35. 32-T.Carter ran ob at 50 for 15 yards (12-R.Meachem). 3rd and 8 (4:56) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at DEN 35 for -2 yards (92-E.Dumervil). FUMBLES (92-E.Dumervil) [92-E.Dumervil], RECOVERED by DEN-32-T.Carter at DEN 35. 32-T.Carter for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. This doesn't include 1st and 2nd down turnovers.
All 3rd and longs are not the same. The score and the time on the clock are huge factors. The opponent's offense play vs the defence also plays a huge part. Most times the Texans have run on 3rd and long, all three factors have led to that decision.
My issue with the Texans love with running on third and long is the play looks like the defense is sitting in a normal run defense. The only exception is the most recent one against the Bills. Generally a third and long draw is tackled by a DB after a generous gain(but not usually enough to get the first down). If the defense is sitting on the draw, you gotta look elsewhere....Just as defenses look at tendencies(as someone who had a father in the high school coaching/scouting business for 30 years, they look at so many numbers that Daryl Morey's head would spin), the offense needs to also look at that. "Are we doing things in certain situations that make us a little predictable?"
