9 or 10PM central time we should at least have a better idea of OH, FL, and VA. But if these states stay within 1% or so, there could be recounts that drag things out over a few days.
Pretty much. If Obama wins both, it's over. If Obama wins Ohio but loses Florida it probably will only take until states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are called. If Romney takes both, you probably have to wait a little longer until states like Colorado and Nevada are called.
So true. if Obama wins, tomorrow's monday morning quarterbacks will all be blasting Romney for not putting more money and time into winning California.
Yep. My co-workers were leaving work and said they thought it wouldn't be resolved until tomorrow, or perhaps later in a Bush/Gore situation. I said it'd be called before they go to sleep; didn't say which direction though!
I have to believe that Obama only gains steam in FL w/ Dade County and the surrounding areas yet to report. Those are Democratic strongholds.
BTW, if you haven't seen it yet, here's a handy tool showing all the paths to victory based on how the battleground states play out. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/scenarios If Obama wins Florida and Ohio, it's over. If Romney wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia then Obama has to win every other swing state to win.
Nate Silver on Florida. [rquoter]In the final pre-election forecast at FiveThirtyEight, the state of Florida was exceptionally close. Officially, Mr. Obama was projected to 49.797 percent of the vote there, and Mr. Romney 49.775 percent, a difference of two-hundredths of a percentage point. The last time a FiveThirtyEight forecast had projected such a close race was in the 2008 senate race in Minnesota, when our final pre-election forecast had given the Democrat, Al Franken, a nominal 0.1-point lead over the Republican incumbent, Norm Coleman. That race ended in a recount, with Mr. Franken winning after several months of ballot counting. Florida, of course, is known for its recounts as well. We’re tracking the individual counties as they come in from that state, particularly those where there is a decent amount of Election Day votes reported, rather than just absentee ballots. Throughout the state, the vote tallies are coming in about exactly as you would expect in a tied race.[/rquoter]
Unless you know what counties the votes are coming from and what is needed from a particular candidate in those counties to win, you can't get too high or low based on current results, especially early in the counting.
Projections: Kansas - Romney Nebraska (3 of 5) - Romney Louisiana - Romney North Dakota - Romney South Dakota - Romney Texas - Romney Wyoming - Romney Michigan - Obama New York - Obama
