NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Latest from the Princeton Election Consortium:

SNAPSHOT as of November 6, 8:02AM
EST:Obama: 312Romney: 226
Meta-margin: Obama +2.46%

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 99.2%, Bayesian Prediction 100.0%

http://election.princeton.edu/

 

Obviously I think Obama is going to win. Come on now.

 

Put some odds on it, Red.

 

Because Silver has upped his prediction to 92%, a Romney win will force him to acknowledge there is likely a design flaw in his statistical model and it needs to be amended. I don't think claiming it is simply a major upset will be sufficient. I'm with you on that.

On the flip side, should Silver's prediction turn out to be more or less accurate (Obama ends up with close to or over 300 electoral votes), are you prepared to acknowledge that there is perhaps some merit to his approach that you hadn't considered before? Would you be willing to revisit your assumptions? I can't speak for others, but it would be more "satisfying" to me if in this scenario you were willing to acknowledge that and stick around for what should be an exciting season of Rockets basketball, rather than make up some lame excuse and then disappear forever.

 

Well it sure as hell ain't 50/50! :grin:

 

No no no.

jopa, if your guy loses today, we do hear from you. we do not see one lame excuse. we do not ever see your posts on the board again. that was the deal, if you have any honor. Period.

 

I was right, and I will not have to eat my shoe.

 

Simply ridiculous. Senility can disturb even the best minds.

 

I will absolutely acknowledge that there is probably merit there and I would be revisiting my assumptions because it would be a historic moment when a president was re-elected with lopsided liberal turnout, following a lopsided swing to the right in 2010, following a lopsided liberal turnout in 2008. I would have to acknowledge a different model of voter turnout. Don't know where I'd go with it but I'd obviously have to acknowledge that I was off a million miles.

Methinks you worry too much Durv. I gave you the answer to your question. I told you what I would do if I were wrong. But honestly I'm not worried about it.

It takes a lot of b..ls to put myself out here like this. I don't see anybody else willing to do it. I put myself out here. I'm a big boy. When you make a prediction, you gotta take all the potshots from the masses who don't have the b..ls to put themselves out there. I'm kinda enjoying it to tell you the truth.

And I'm not worried at all about leaving. I've got an idea about a bball board that I'll probably pursue if that happens. Something different that I haven't seen done yet. If I'm gone, I'll just pursue that myself. If I stay, I'll hand it off to Clutch.

 

That's the deal.

Except for one thing. Mitt is not my guy. I'm simply predicting he is our next president.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>It begins: RT @<a href="https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight">fivethirtyeight</a>: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we're predicting a landslide. We expect a close election</p>&mdash; Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/265813822709837824" data-datetime="2012-11-06T13:52:08+00:00">November 6, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

His wife is working for the Romney campaign. Given his situation, I think its a smart move on his part.

 

That's a hedge.

 

Do people here not understand probability?

You can have a 90% chance of a particular outcome without it being a landslide. All it is saying is that there is 9/10 chance of a possible outcome with the results being close. Its not saying that there is a 90% chance of landslide.

Close results. However 9/10 chance of it being in favor of one side while being close.

 

You're not at 90%. You're at 100%.

 

No it doesn't, you're an anonymous guy on an internet bbs. Get over yourself.

 

What?! If they predict Obama has a 90% chance of winning then that means Obama should be winning 90% of the vote

But since all polls are left wing media fakery, Obama is done...done. DONE!

HURR DURR DERP

/jopatmc logic



DONE!!!!!!!

 

He's predicting 315 - 223. Historically, does that split qualify as a landslide victory?

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781450.html

On a quick scan, in 14 of the last 20 elections the winner had a greater share of the electoral votes than what Silver is predicting this time.

 

For you people who are not understanding Silver, let me put it in another context for you. Let's say the Spurs go on a 10 game losing streak. Does that mean the Spurs got shutout each game, no. All Silver is commenting on is the W-L record per state and not the scores. If Romney loses all/most battleground states 49/48 it's a close loss, but a loss nonetheless. I am convinced a good majority of you need to go back to your stats profs and say "hey, I don't really understand statistics I need to give you my grade back. I'll be back in this class early spring to redeem myself." It's sad.

Also, check this one out:
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics...e1d8895edd03ba58bf016abaf36b8f039/iframe.html

It explains the pathway to the presidency quite well based on poll of polls. This explains how Romney could win, but there is still a 90% Obama takes it. Of course, a lot of you just could be trolling...