NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Silver's final percentages are Obama 92.0% and Romney 8.0%.

 

I don't see Obama winning Florida.

 

Virginia has been flipped for awhile. Florida is new. Yesterday, Romney was at 55% to win, now Obama is 53%. It's a true tossup. Should be interesting to see how that one plays out.

 

Beyond that, saying "a president has never been re-elected if __________" is only true until it happens. Sayings like this in the past constantly fail at some point. Then a new saying comes about and they eventually fail too. Some day Republicans will win the White House without winning Ohio. It's going to happen, that's just the way things are. It's a foolish to ignore all other evidence and base your prediction on something like this.

 

Where's jopat?

 

He went from a 53% chance of Romney winning FL to a 53% chance of Obama winning FL. It's based on the latest polling data that came out that showed Obama gaining ground nationally by about 1-2%. It's not like he picks and chooses what he wants his model to do.

 

I hear you. I'm surprised by the margin prediction myself, but in 2008, while I thought the President was going to win, I didn't think his margin would be north of 300 electoral votes. Nate Silver did, and he was right. So the cat must know something.

 

personally delivering his questions to Nate Silver

 

his methodology hasn't changed just new polling data coming in

 

His methodology will have to change after this election. He'll have to study voter turnout and what motivates voter turnout and come up with a measurable that he can add to his model.

His model may work very well in a democratic primary race. It may work very well on the state level for congressman because the poll data is not as skewed. But at the presidential level, the spin and skew is too great in polls. He's refusing to acknowledge it. It's gonna bite him in his hiney today.

 

And if he is right on his prediction?

 

We will never see him again. I'm hoping that texx, basso, rtsy, trader and cml750 (where did this guy pop up from?) follow him out the door.

 

texxx, trader, and rtsy will not be leaving. I doubt basso will be leaving. It probably depends if he'll still be getting paid by right wing groups to post on here or not after the election.

 

If he's right, then it is 2016, or 2020 or some other election. He's not right about this election because he has chosen to plug skewed poll data into his model. He is overlooking the obvious. And the information about poll data skew has been very well disseminated to the public. A reasonable person will consider all the information available, not willfully ignore half of it because it is coming from people that they have a political difference with.

Nate is wrong about this election. He is going to spin it that this election fell into the 8%. He's gonna spin it that because Mitt won Ohio, Mitt was actually a 92% favorite to win the election. The bottom line is his model is swallowing and chugging politically skewed data.

Remember this term, because you're gonna hear about it in the days and weeks to come.

THE SILENT MAJORITY

 

Are you claiming to be a member of the 'silent' majority?

 

You may never see me again. I'm not for sure how ignore works. But after Romney is announced the winner, I am going to see what your responses are to what I told you. And then I'm going to choose whether to ignore you or not based on how arrogant and unwilling you are to accept that you were wrong and I was right about this election. If you act like a total tard, I'll put you on ignore and I won't have to read ignorance from you anymore. What that means is I won't be jamming up bandwidth with pictures of Obama every time you post. So, you should be happy about that. LOL

I'm hoping not to have to do that however. I would much prefer to just have reasonable, intelligent discussion. It's okay to disagree. It's okay to express reasons for your disagreement. What makes no sense is simply attacking an evidence-based opinion with childish smart-alec comments without providing an opinion with reasonable evidences. That's why I kinda feel I'm probably dealing with some very young, immature people here....and I simply don't have the time, energy, or desire to be a part of petty word fights. Some of you here remind me of my kids. They range in age from 10 to 21 years old and I have to remind them all the time how to communicate and work out differences instead of just hollering r****ded stuff at each other.

If you can't bring your game up to par and you continue to choose to call names and throw off on opinions that don't jive with yours without providing any kind of counter argument based on facts and logic...then I just don't have time to read yo stuff. So, you will be ignored.

 

The jopatmc dictionary.


Feelings
noun,
1) evidence based opinions
2) based on facts and logic

 

No. Not a member of anything. I'm a free-thinking, independent American. However, I do know people that are in the silent majority. When the pollsters call them, they're sick of all the bologna from them. They hang up the phone. These are voters that have consistently voted over many, many elections. They're voting today. They used to participate in polls until polls were exposed for what they were, instruments that could be used by biased persons to influence others who to vote for or to not vote at all. Like I say, they used to participate in polls. But not now. They're fed up with the bull, fed up with liberal agenda being shoved down their throats by the liberal media. When the pollsters call, they send it to voice mail, they pick up and hang up so they don't have to delete the voice mail, they may pick up and tell the pollsters they are a member of the other party and are voting straight ticket, just so it introduces more error into the polls. And then they show up on election day and do their thing.

You're going to see the silent majority do their thing this election. And the thing is, everyone has had access to the same information. After this election, there'll be huge discussions about voter turnout and how the polls project voter turnout and how the polls were wrong because they wrongly projected voter turnout, etc. But you know what, most of the public won't get to the bottom of what is going on because they are plugged into to ABC News or CBS or NBC. And they think what is on those news sources is the gospel truth. They don't account for spin and skew. They don't research. They don't examine. They just buy the dope that is being pumped to them.


This election will not be an anomaly. It won't be an unusual turnout. It will be the results that we should expect if we examine history in context and understand this:

NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER BEEN RE-ELECTED WHEN THEY HAVE PRESIDED OVER THIS DEGREE OF ECONOMIC AND FISCAL FAILURE AND HAVE BROKEN VERY CLEAR, VERY PLAIN CAMPAIGN PROMISES MADE IN THEIR FIRST CAMPAIGN.

So, when Obama is voted out today, nobody should be surprised. They shouldn't be talking about voter turnout or anything else. But guess what...the media will spin out what a huge surprise this was today.

No surprises today. Barack is done.

 

You are going to look real silly if Obama wins. So many quotables.

 

Yeah. So, what do you think is going to happen today RedRedemption???