The Event couldn't even fill the upper bowl. This cycle it's all about turnout. The Republican base is energized, the Democratic base is not. We'll see come tomorrow, but when you can't fill up a stadium for an event featuring two of arguably the greatest musicians in their respective genres and the POTUS you might want to worry.
He filled it up... Those pictures were before the event started... Not sure why it even matters though....
Not sure if this was already posted, but it's a pretty interesting analysis http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics...e1d8895edd03ba58bf016abaf36b8f039/iframe.html It's really hard to see how Romney wins this if he loses Ohio. I don't understand what some of the Republicans don't get about this. If Obama wins, I really hope Romney wins the popular vote so we can get more support to kill the electoral college. It's not logical for an election to be decided this way.
Romney can win without Ohio but will probably win Ohio anyway. If he takes FL, NC, VA, CO, AR, and NH which he might likely do. And wins ONLY ONE of these states (OH, MI, PA, MN, WI) he wins.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>OHIO EARLY VOTE: More troubling <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23s">#s</a> for Obama than in VA. Turnout down 4.1% vs. '08 in Kerry/Obama counties, UP 14.4% in Bush/McCain counties</p>— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/265686899430133762" data-datetime="2012-11-06T05:27:47+00:00">November 6, 2012</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
We will know in less than 24 hours. My sister feels Ohio could swing to Romney, they have put in a lot of work to carry Ohio.
Crazier things have happened. Ohio is close enough to where little things like ground game and voter enthusiasm really can flip things. The margins aren't quite safe enough for President Obama to totally relax.
Breaking... Hart's Location, New Hampshire New Hampshire's smallest Town and First in the Nation every four years! 2012 General Election - National Results for Hart's Location President/Vice President Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 23 Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 9 Gary Johnson/James Gray (L) 1 Virgil Goode/James Clymer (C) 0 Governor Maggie Hassan (D) 22 Ovide Lamontagne (R) 9 John Babiarz (L) 2
This... If you are putting a gun to my head, I would pick Obama to win Ohio by a narrow 2-3% margin. However we live in an ever changing world and it is harder to get accurate polling when you consider cell phones, evolving early voting and only a 2-3% edge. My sister is realistic, and has worked on the Romney campaign for a long time. She knows Obama is the favorite but believes Ohio will surprise based on early voting and the energy level.
Do Silver's analytics take into account voter turnout/suppression? That's really what I worry about. One party clearly benefits from fewer people voting, which is really a sad and pathetic thing.
