Perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday someone will post an evaluation --without rose colored glasses -- of how close each of the 25 major pollsters were in relation to the actual results.
Yes, but often with rose colored glasses because no pollster wants to admit his/her poll was off. There is always some "factor" that skewed their results.
how? its simply comparing numbers to numbers.. how can you spin that.. if a pollster called a state for 1 candidate and that candidate won the state then they're correct
Obama wins by 1-2% of popular vote, wins 284 EVs vs. 254 EVs for Romney. Obama is re-elected. Obama gets NV, WI, MI, PA, VA, and OH. Romney gets CO, FL, and NC.
Please give an example of these poll ratings analyses being done with rose colored glasses. You said it happens "often", but you can provide just one.
I have it as the following: Romney 281 Obama 257 Romney carries: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa. Obama carries: Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota.
Hmn..... I'll give Romney both Florida (that state's governor is trying as hard as he can to make sure Romney wins) and North Carolina (traditionally Southern-fried voters, 2008 notwithstanding). I'd almost give him Colorado because that state's Secretary of State has been doing his damndest to muddy the waters. Oh, hell, I'll keep Colorado for my boy. Romney ain't winning Iowa. He sure isn't winning Ohio. Man, some of you are unbelievably delusional. Obama 303 Romney 235
I could see this almost happening, but for whatever reason, Iowa is in Obama's pocket. That's where he started his Presidential run, so to speak. I visited my dad there 4 years ago and was amazed at how well-run Obama's campaign was. Granted, Romney's campaign isn't a slouch (I'm no fan of his, but they're organized). But don't let the mighty-whitey appearance of Iowa fool you. Obama wins there, I'd say, 52.5% to 47.5% (minus some wasted votes either way for the other candidates no one knows).
I'm interested to see who guessed right on this. May take some time though. Have a feeling this will drag out like the 2000 election did.
Just watch for the excuses by the "off: pollsters as to why they were inaccurate. The "on" pollsters will crow about why they were right. Dick Morris is touting his reasons for interpreting the polls one way and David Axelrod is doing the same -- and they are talking about the same polls. Major, understand that you are a pro-poller and I am an anti-poller. To me, the only accurate poll is when a small group is odering take out.
I don't give Obama much chance in Florida. I think it was a long shot before, and after seeing the early voting problems and 9 hour waits, I think Romney wins it comfortably. And Romney isn't winning Nevada, or Michigan.
Basso...again, will you disappear from the D&D for a year if Obama wins? I will do the same if your guy wins, along with a donation to the tip jar. Put your money where your mouth is. You're so adamant about Mitt, as well as your views. You should be confident. Take the bet?
