NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Except Independents now are not the same as they were during the 2008 election. A decent number of Republicans became Independents around 2010, most likely due to the Tea Party. The increase in Independents since 2010 correlates almost precisely with the decline in people calling themselves Republicans. Thus, it is no surprise that in 2012, Independents lean Republican since a good chunk of them were Republicans just a few years ago and are presumably Tea Party now... making them more right-wing than your traditional independent.

On January 1, 2010 the party breakdown was roughly 34% Dem, 28% Repub, and 28% Independent. In November of 2010, Independents passed Repubs and have held a 10-12% margin over Repubs since then while Dems have stayed fairly constant in the 31-33% range.

See the chart in this article: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/can_romney_win_indies_lose.php

The basic message from Silver after the 2008 election still holds, it just means you have to put most of those used-to-be-Republicans in the Republican category and ferret out the true independent voters. It is more than conceivable that Romney could win "independents" as constituted today and lose because he lost the subset of Independents that used to be the cohort Silver was talking about.

 

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331828/two-polls-have-chicago-terrified-josh-jordan#

That little pencil neck geek Nate Silver is so done. He's lucky if he can even land a gig as a lame Yahoo writer after the election.

 

"It must have been fraud. Obama couldn't have one legitimately won. Even though the polls and data all suggested otherwise, in my heart I know he was really losing."

 

Take cover, prepare for a barage of caca, regroup, and keep firing truth mortars.

 

Can any of you neocon parrots please tell me what these pollsters would have to gain by skewing the polls towards Obama?

 

No, you wouldn't understand it.

 

Translation: "I can't explain it." Dwight Howard says hi.

 

That's one translation among 6 on your dice ball that you roll to come up with a response. LOL

 

@fivethirtyeight Nate, your instrument panel is out of calibration and it's going to cause a crash.

 

Love that Nate Silver now has a 'bias" now according to righties strictly because his results are not to their liking.

Did Silver change is formula recently? If he had a bias, why weren't Repubs saying it months ago???

 

Then I guess having Nate Silver to manipulate the masses worked like a charm in 2008.

 

I wonder if Clutch can create some sort of "lefty suicide prevention thread" after the election. I have a strong feeling that things will not be pretty after Nov 6th.

 

Don't worry. If the election lands on the 22% side of chance, and Romney wins the presidency, left America stands ready to give him every chance that FOX and the wingers gave Obama. In fact, I am sure they will give him twice the chance, at least.

And hey, if your boy keeps flopping positions, he may look a *lot* more like Obama than he even did as governor! Heck, we might even get a real liberal in the Whitehouse for a change! :grin:

 

Hmm latest poll from today has Obama up +2 in Colorado with virtually no undecided voters left. Obama takes ALL swing states?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-tight-race-in-rocky-mountain-battleground-2/

 

And he must have switched sides temporarily in 2010 since he predicted big gains in the House and Senate for the Republicans.

 

keep ****ing that chicken.

 

Nope. Silver joined the NYT after 2008 and he was criticized during the 2010 elections as well. His job is to spin for Obama.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHA! Based on what? Link please.