I don't know if TAMU's offense will be that much of a test. I imagine WVU's offense is better, although less talented, and I've seen far lesser defenses give them trouble. I guess Manziel is dumb enough to scramble out of anything but he's more likely to throw 5 picks than carve up Bama.
Oregon's first-team defense is why they are legit this year. A.J. McCarron's development this year will be put to the test against LSU's defense. I don't think Alabama's defense will have any more problem with A&M than Florida or LSU. In fact, they should be better prepared to start the game than either.
Maybe - but A&M outgained both Florida and LSU in yards and moved the ball quite a bit. They put up 400 yards vs LSU - their problem there was finishing drives with turnovers, missed FGs, etc. If A&M can put up 15-20 points on Alabama like they did against those other teams, that tells me a team like Oregon could put up 30.
You're a genuine believer in Oregon's front on defense - not trying to start a confrontation, I'd like more insight? TAMU has NFL players across the o-line, that helps a whole heck of a lot when it comes to those offensive numbers. It's only taking these SEC defenses about 1.5 quarters to adjust to TAMU's attack. It's like a Jeff Van Gundy Rockets team by the 2nd half - painful offensive drought. The entire scheme falls flat. The only thing TAMU has going for them after halftime is Manziel improvising.
I think SEC defenses are excellent (especially LSU and Alabama) but they are statistically a bit overrated because they play a lot of crappy QBs in there. Last year's LSU defense was incredible - and Oregon put up 27 points on it. WVU put up only 21 points but moved the ball at will, putting up over 500 yards of offense on them. Those two teams put up far better offensive performances than any of the SEC teams did against them - so those high powered offenses CAN score on the vaunted SEC defenses. The question has always been whether they can avoid the mistakes (they combined for 8 turnovers last year) and play enough defense. This year's Oregon team has the best defense we've seen of all those high-powered teams in recent years.
Alabama's offense is twice as good as LSU's and Florida's put together. A.J. McCarron is legit and (IMO) he's held back by Saban's play-calling. Mettenberger and Driskel are pathetic. A&M won't have the ball long enough to put up 400 yards unless their defense gets completely destroyed and Alabama blows out to a huge lead. Agreed.
In that LSU-Oregon game, the Ducks put up 14 of those 27 once the game was LONG out of reach. After going up 33-13 in the fourth quarter, LSU went into a prevent defense and generally stopped playing with the same level of aggression. In fact, one of the two touchdowns came largely against backups with 13 seconds left. I know it doesn't prove that Oregon wouldn't have scored those points had things been closer... but it's certainly worth noting. What makes me more skeptical of Oregon is their performance against Auburn roughly 21 months ago. That wasn't even a particularly good SEC defense - Auburn was decidedly mediocre, IIRC - and Oregon really struggled in the trenches for big parts of that game. Ended up with only 19 points (8 coming in the last five minutes) and very little rhythm. And that, to me, was with arguably the best Oregon offense we've seen - James, Thomas, Maehl, Barner, etc. I could be wrong, but when I see a team as spread/formation happy as the Ducks, my first instinct is to wonder how well their five linemen will hold up on an island against pressure from big-boy defenses. To that end, their last two efforts against the SEC haven't been very good, especially while those games were competitive. That's why I think KState has a better shot of beating Alabama.
Cat, this year, Oregon has a QB that can both pass effectively and take it to the house on any play. As a redshirt freshman, Mariota is already better than Darron Thomas. As already mentioned, their defense is better than 2 years ago and there really isn't much question about it. Against Auburn's defense, two words sum it up: Nick Fairley. Almost by himself, he blew up Oregon's running game. It was an incredible performance. He also did it against someone else during the season (can't remember who). Question his motor all you want, but when that guy decided to dominate in college, he was like few I've ever seen. By the time bowl season rolls around, Oregon's offense this time will be much better than 2 years ago. Barner is better. The QB is a better passer and more dangerous runner. DAT may be the best decoy ever. You have 3 guys who can run or Mariota can pass to Huff, Addison or DAT. I don't believe Oregon would beat Alabama, but I believe they would beat Kansas State & Notre Dame and have the best chance to deny Saban. This won't be exact, but we can compare how UO & ND do against USC.
Oregon vs KSU - now that's a matchup I'd like to see. They should just play that game and give Bama a BYE/automatic title.
Kansas State and Oregon were supposed to play a home-and-home series in 2011 & 2012. When Oregon was offered the chance to play LSU last year, they asked K-State to reschedule the 2011 game to a different date. When they wouldn't/couldn't, both sides agreed to call the series off.
Just to echo what A3P0 said, this oregon offense is much better than that one. No one has even come close to slowing them down this year. You can say that they haven't played anyone, which is somewhat true, but they've played whose on the schedule, that's all that they can do. They have totally dominated every defense that they have faced. Mariotta has been incredibly good. He hasn't faced a second half deficit yet, so it remains to be seen what he can do in a close game, but all signs point to him becoming an elite college qb very soon. Their defense has also been dominant. They have so many d linemen that fatigue will not be a problem against Alabama. They haven't proven that they can handle a big physical O or D line yet, but I believe that this squad can. Let's see how they handle USC, Stanford and OSU. I think that they will dominate all 3 of them. Really, really hope they get a chance to play Alabama.
I agree that's the best measure we have so far - but that whole game was messed up. Oregon's mediocre defense held Auburn's explosive offense to 22 points also and almost won a national title. I think this year's Oregon has the advantage of a real defense. We'll get a much better sense of Oregon when they play USC this week - USC may not be great, but they at least have NFL speed and NFL talent all over the field. One problem Oregon does have is that, like most spread teams, it's a timing & rythym offense. Having 5-6 weeks off before playing the national title game really hurts teams like that, IMO.
The problem with high powered offenses is that by the time of the national championship game the teams have not played in over a month. This is a huge advantage to the grind it out teams like Alabama and LSU. The high powered offenses like Oregon and Oklahoma need to keep playing to keep their timing.
