Positioning for an in-season trade for another big money guy

I am surprised that so many fans of NBA teams continue to believe that big name, big money players can realistically be acquired during the offseason. I am especially surprised that so many Rockets fans continue to believe that this is a realistic plan.

It seems to me that Daryl Morey is far more likely to position the Rockets to acquire a big name, big money player during the season (i.e., between now and the February trade deadline). Therefore, it makes sense for the team to hold on to Shaun Livingston's contract and discard contracts of players with minimal upside and small salaries. He'd like to be able to ship out contracts that, combined, are equal in value to the big contract of this mystery big name player.

Therefore, it makes sense that Morey first tries to trade the players he intends to cut (so as to save money), but if that fails, he cuts them. These four guys for sure get cut, in my opinion:

Gary Forbes
Jon Brockman
Greg Smith
Scott Machado

NOTE: I think Smith and Machado should both get claimed, if/when waived, which saves Houston some money. I doubt either Forbes or Brockman get claimed, but it might happen.

That leaves one more guy to cut. I think Morey will be trying very hard for the next few days to find somebody who will cough up something, even if it's only "draft considerations" (i.e., the right to swap second round picks in some future draft) or cash, for the following players:

Daequan Cook
Toney Douglas
Lazar Hayward

Alternatively, Morey may be looking to acquire a second round pick from a bottom feeder (making the pick a high second round pick) for the following players:

Cole Aldrich
Patrick Patterson
Marcus Morris
JaJuan Johnson

I think it's reasonable to assume that Morey can find a taker for one or more of the above seven players over the next couple of days. If not, my guess is that Morey works out a buyout with Cook and he's gone, although he may decide to cut Hayward instead.

The Rockets will then proceed to showcase all of their young talent for the purpose of an in-season trade for a big money guy, presumably a starting post player to pair with Omer Asik. Let's take a look at who might become available:

Josh Smith, Hawks (unrestricted free agent at the end of this season)
Carlos Boozer, Bulls (expensive but can be very easily had)
Joakim Noah, Bulls (less expensive than Boozer, and younger)
Taj Gibson, Bulls (restricted free agent at the end of this season)
Anderson Varejao, Cavs (very good player, but he's 30, and Cleveland is rebuilding)
Andrew Bogut, Warriors (only 27 years old, but very injury-prone)
David Lee, Warriors (expensive, can be easily had, but very inefficient)
Danny Granger, Pacers (fairly expensive, & not exactly a classic post player)
Pau Gasol, Lakers (if the Lakers disappoint, he's going to be the fall guy)
Zach Randolph, Grizzlies (an old 31, and expensive)
Marc Gasol, Grizzlies (not too expensive, and only 27 years old)
Derrick Williams, Timberwolves (playing out of position in MN, and only 21!)
Andrew Bynum, Sixers (no one should be surprised if things go badly in PHI)
Thaddeus Young, Sixers (see above)
Marcin Gortat, Suns (not as young as you think; turns 29 in February!)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers (27 years old, and the prize of this group)
DeMarcus Cousins, Kings (but keep in mind that he will only become available if he continues to be a head case)
Al Jefferson, Jazz (unrestricted free agent at the end of the season)
Paul Millsap, Jazz (unrestricted free agent at the end of the season)
Emeka Okafor, Wizards (expensive, nothing special)
Nene Hilario, Wizards (30 years old!)

That's a big list! It goes without saying that Morey would like to package some of his promising first- and second-year guys with some expiring contracts (and possibly one or more draft picks) for one of the guys listed above. If a) Omer Asik plays as well during the regular season as he's played during the preseason, b) Jeremy Lin can provide solid production from the PG spot, and c) James Harden emerges as a bona fide perimeter star as anticipated, then it appears that Houston becomes a perennial playoff team by acquiring the right guy from the list above.

 

I have a feeling that Paul Millsap is the guy who is Morey's likely target, as Millsap is undervalued, relatively young (turns 28 in February), and plays for a small market team that may be reluctant to offer him the near-max contract that he wants. Plus, Utah has younger/cheaper replacements waiting in the wings in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter.

This trade would probably work for Utah if they decide that Millsap is cost prohibitive:

Paul Millsap to Houston; Terrence Jones, Shaun Livingston, Toney Douglas, and either Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Royce White, or JaJuan Johnson to Utah

Revised Houston starting lineup:

PG Jeremy Lin
SG James Harden
SF Chandler Parsons
PF Paul Millsap
C Omer Asik

I see no reason why Houston isn't a playoff team in 2012-13 with this lineup. In what universe is Dallas a better team? Or Utah, after making this trade?

 

For Derrick Williams, Houston would need to bail Minnesota out on that stupid Jose Barea contract (which was predictably stupid, from the get-go), and cough up Terrence Jones, expiring contracts, plus one of its fringe prospects (e.g., Marcus Morris, Cole Aldrich, JaJuan Johnson).

Pau Gasol is incredibly expensive, and Houston wouldn't be able to cobble together $19-$21 mil worth of 2012-13 contracts to make it work, so that probably isn't happening during the season. After the season, that's another story altogether. I can see the Lakers trying hard to make this work this season, and if they fall short of a championship, and Gasol is the fall guy, I can see them dumping his contract onto a team with cap space during the offseason. But will Houston still have that cap space? I doubt it, as I think they'll execute an in-season trade. I completely agree that Gasol is the sort of player who will play well into his late thirties.

 

Houston fans should, in my opinion, recognize how irrational and bizarre Portland's owner, Paul Allen, is. Consider the bizarre Nicolas Batum situation from this past summer. Highly unlikely that Houston is going to be able to successfully negotiate with such an irrational trade partner. Houston fans need to do themselves a big favor here and figure out an Aldridge alternative. I just do not see a trade happening.

Also, keep in mind that whoever has a player's Larry Bird rights have a huge advantage, as they can offer the guy far more money than can anybody else. Therefore, if/when Paul Allen refuses to trade Aldridge, it should be assumed that Aldridge re-signs with Portland for more money than anybody else can offer him.

 

What did Houston accomplish by signing-and-trading Courtney Lee to Boston if/when they cut JuJuan Johnson? Did they receive anything else remotely valuable in that trade?