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The Rockets have landed James Harden!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Oct 27, 2012.

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The Rockets landed James Harden for K-Mart, Lamb + draft picks. Do you like the move?

  1. YES

    1,287 vote(s)
    85.7%
  2. NO

    215 vote(s)
    14.3%
  1. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    You bet, RR. Here you go!


    Yes, yes,” Harden said if he had decided to sign with the Rockets. “I’ll let them figure that out with my agent.

    He was asked why that appealed to him.

    “Just to be secure. I feel like I’m in a great position with a great team, a great group of young guys that are willing to work hard.”


    http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....confirms-he-will-sign-extension-with-rockets/
     
  2. stl1622dc

    stl1622dc Member

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    Not only will our team of Harden, Lin, Asik, Parsons, TJones, and "unnamed max-level guy" be experienced next year and 2014-15, but perhaps more importantly our competition will be much weaker.

    Lakers - Kobe will be 36 on 60 year old legs by the 2014-15 season and has already hinted he'll retire before signing new deal. Nash will be 90.

    OKC - Just lost their #3 guy and have to find a new big 3. I don't think Lamb will ever come close to Harden's level. KMart is just a stop gap.

    Mavs - Dirk is the only key guy there and is already done.

    Spurs - Duncan has to retire sometime... Manu is already showing his age and will be 37 in 2014/15. Parker is going to be a 32 year old PG without any help.
     
  3. RedDynasty

    RedDynasty Member

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    Can someone post the ESPN article called "More Moves from Morey?"? Its a Insider article.
     
  4. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    So Harden appeals to the quiet black fans?
     
  5. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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  6. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    Yes, keep in mind Lebron wouldn't take less than the max under today's CBA. He got essentially a max contract under the new CBA while the old CBA had not expired.
     
  7. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    Your assumption was incorrect. OKC not offering the max didn't mean that they didn't think he was worth it. They simply don't have the finances or flexibilty to do it.

    If OKC didn't think he was worth the max, then are they going to to offer him $4.5M below the max for 4 years? Of course not.

    Do you really think that OKC thought that Harden was worth slightly more than a million under the max but not the max? That was a deal breaker?

    It wasn't about what he was worth, it has always been obvious that Harden would get max offers. It's about what OKC could afford.
     
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  8. Raven

    Raven Member

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    It's just the opposite. If you've been watching the Rockets for 30+ years, you know the difference between sizzle and steak. You know the difference between a band aid and a legitimate star who a team can build a championship team around. You know which teams/cities that can build a contender through trades and free agency and which teams/cities have no choice but to build a contender through the draft, and you know which of the two that your team is.

    We aren't NY, LA, or Miami, but a lot of people on this board mistakenly believe we can build a contender the same way they can. We can't.

    Our path to a Championship was through a future star, not yet drafted, but we'll never draft high enough to get that star, not with Les & Morey in charge.

    But we'll win around 50 games and probably make it to the second round, and everyone will say the future is bright and that we're one more piece away, blah, blah, blah. But there won't be a brighter future. We will have hit our ceiling, and people on this board will be shown that a team with a top five player will beat a team with a top twenty player, in a seven game series, the overwhelming majority of the time.
     
    2 people like this.
  9. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    The difference between what OKC could pay and what the Rockets could pay is $24M ($54M vs $80M).

    Lebron gave up about a million a year on his current deal. Not really too much especially when you factor in that Lebron makes more off endorsements than he does in salary.
     
  10. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    I agree with you to an extent but there's one thing working in our favor and that's age. Lin and Harden are both pretty young. They both have room to grow and hopefully will both improve considerably. It's conceivable that one or both of them could become top 10 players in this league. Not likely to happen but it's definitely possible. Then there's Jones and DMo who seem to have a lot more potential than your average mid first round picks. I can see a lot more of a potentially bright future now than on Friday.
     
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  11. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    So, what's the correct approach? Don't make any trades unless we ge a top 5 player?
     
  12. SC1211

    SC1211 Member

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    In what world has Harden not lived up to his potential as a THIRD OVERALL PICK IN THE NBA DRAFT? Just so you know, the Toronto pick was top 4 protected. The Dallas pick was top 20 protected.

    My god, some people will never be satisfied. Would you rather be the Charlotte Bobcats or us right now? For every OKC and NOH team that builds through the draft, there's a team like the Wizards, Bobcats or Cavs. Building through the draft is never guaranteed. You have to hope the ping pong balls go your way, and THEN hope it's a good year (2013 really isn't), and THEN hope your guy pans out.

    James Harden is the type of player that you hope for in the draft. Go look at the top 10 picks in the past 5 years and try to convince me he's not in the top 8.
     
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  13. kumakun

    kumakun Member

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    I respect Harden not because he wanted the money but because he wanted to become more than a 6th man and knew his potential. Its like Jeremy Lin now, unproven starter but brought excitement and energy to the team. I think Harden knew Jeremy Lin was on the Rockets and couldn't pass up Linsanity 2.0 with a beard.
     
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  14. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Link
     
  15. tofu--

    tofu-- Member

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    I keep feeling like the 5 year deal is so much more bloated than the 4 year one, but I guess we're adamant on tying him up.
     
  16. MourningWood

    MourningWood Member

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    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8564337/nba-harden-pushes-houston-rockets-contention

     
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  17. mikeyharris

    mikeyharris Member

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    This is rebuilding done right. When the Houston Rockets landed NBA Sixth Man of the Year James Harden in a six-player, three-draft pick trade late Saturday, the oft-questioned moves made by general manager Daryl Morey since last season ended were instantly justified.

    There are more than a few ways by which an NBA executive can stir the ire of analysts. The primary methods are: 1. Repeated failure. 2. A habit of bad-value contracts. Less apt to attract attention, but in many ways just as important, is a GM's willingness to accept mediocrity. After an offseason in which Morey almost completely turned over the Houston roster, he's proved not to be a willing member of the middle class.

    When Morey took the reins of the Rockets' basketball operations department in May 2007, he inherited a roster that featured Tracy McGrady, who had not yet turned 28, and Yao Ming, who had yet to turn 27. His two stars were coming off a season in which they combined to average nearly 50 points per game. It was as solid a core as any in the league, and Morey's initial mandate was to put the finishing touches on a roster built to win big.

    But for the past three years, mediocrity has thrust upon Morey. McGrady's knees robbed him of his elite athleticism, and Yao's career went into a quick and painful free fall because of chronic lower-body injuries. Morey got one season of McGrady and Yao before the injuries hit. In each of the past three years, the Rockets have missed the playoffs despite finishing over .500 each time. Morey's teams have remained competitive with a roster of players acquired to support a power core, not replace it. Still, the upside of the group has been limited to, at best, a lower-tier seed, so Morey set out to shake things up.

    According to Morey's transaction log, he's made seven trades since the end of last season, drafted three players and signed free agents Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin and Carlos Delfino. If we're counting correctly, Morey's transactions have involved 32 players, 11 draft picks and 10 teams across the league. After the dust clears, the Rockets will return 13.5 percent of their minutes from last season. The second-lowest total of returning minutes in the league belongs to New Orleans -- at 43.1 percent. That's the fewest in the league by a country mile.

    When a championship is the goal, the general manager's challenge is to not only construct the best possible roster for any given season but also leave open a possible path to elite status. This is a hard balance to strike, and the inability to do so marks our consistent criticism of the New York Knicks, just to name one team. Morey seems to have found this balance.

    When his pursuit of Dwight Howard fell short, Morey didn't panic. Instead, he recognized the double-impact value of low-cost, high-upside assets and positioned his team for the move he made on Saturday. The Rockets are better, now and especially in the future.
    Are we talking playoffs?

    First, it should be noted that even with Harden assuming the role held by outgoing shooting guard Kevin Martin, the Rockets still project to be the worst team in the Western Conference, according to SCHOENE. Houston is better, with a projected post-trade baseline of 26.4 wins, 4.7 more than before the deal. The Rockets didn't make the playoffs in any of our simulations before the trade. When we reran the sims after updating the roster, Houston still came up with a goose egg in the Made Playoffs column.
    James Harden
    AP Photo/Sue OgrockiHarden will be all smiles after he signs his max contract in a few days.

    The Rockets might be underrated due to the uncertainty around projections of rookies Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones and Royce White. The full impact of Asik's defense might also be understated. Second-year pro Marcus Morris could unexpectedly blossom. Nevertheless, on paper this still looks like a rebuilding season for the Rockets, improved as they are.

    The real excitement over Morey's maneuvering likely will be felt in the seasons to come. If 26.4 wins were the baseline for an over/under betting line, the heavy money would be on the over for this season. It's an easy argument to make, and it's only going to get better from here. The Rockets now project to have a minutes-weighted average age of just 24.7 years, 4.1 years younger than last season and third-youngest in the league behind Cleveland and New Orleans. With youth comes two things: financial flexibility and on-court upside. Houston has both in spades.

    In terms of flexibility, the Rockets will have plenty of it even after signing Harden to a max contract extension, which reportedly will be of the four-year variety. (The Rockets can extend Harden for five years, whereas Oklahoma City was limited to four since it made Russell Westbrook its "designated" five-year player per the new CBA.) A four-year extension for Harden would be worth approximately $60.8 million, depending on how high the salary cap is set in the seasons to come.

    Even after that investment, the Rockets will have just six guaranteed contracts on the books for next season, totaling about $35.1 million. (That number could grow depending on which rookie-contract team options the Rockets choose to pick up over the next couple of days.) That's plenty of money for another max-contract player, whether he's acquired via free agency or by trade. The latter route seems more viable at the moment, and Houston has its three first-round rookies, Morris, second-year forward Chandler Parsons and a slew of salary filler still on hand to entice the next team looking to unload a star and begin again.

    That leaves Houston with an offensive core of Lin and Harden, and Asik is around to anchor the defense. Any of those aforementioned young players could develop into core or rotation pieces as well, although the collective inexperience of the group drags down the Rockets' projection for now. Still, there is clearly a missing piece: the franchise centerpiece that is the most difficult part to acquire. But Morey has given the Rockets both the cap flexibility and the attractive young core to make Houston a viable destination for that franchise centerpiece.

    Harden better without Durant?

    As far as on-the-court upside, let's revisit the big three rankings we rolled out earlier this summer. The Rockets now have a projected core trio of Lin, Harden and Asik. Asik is more of an elite complementary type than a big three player because of his shortcomings on offense, but he's all the Rockets have on hand for the moment. In the initial rankings, the Rockets didn't make the original article, but their former trio of Lin, Asik and Jones ranked 18th in projected 2016 wins above replacement.
    Jeremy Lin
    Soobum Im/US PresswireLin and Harden will comprise an aggressive Houston backcourt, but their defense remains average at best.

    The new core ranks sixth, and that's without knowledge of who is going to replace Asik in the group. It's not hard to envision the Rockets soon fielding a big three with as much upside as even that of the Thunder, which still ranks first with Serge Ibaka assuming the spot vacated by Harden.

    It's now up to Harden to prove he's worth the max contract he's about to sign. Few players combined the efficiency and volume of offense Harden provided for the Thunder last season. In fact, among qualifying players with a usage rate of 21 percent or higher, only Charles Barkley posted a higher true shooting percentage than Harden's .660 mark in 2011-12. (Barkley did it three times.) That's as in the history of the league. In Houston, it seems inevitable that Harden's usage will soar and his efficiency will fall. The degree to which each occurs will determine his new baseline value.

    For an indication of what will happen to Harden's numbers, it's worth a look at some on-off numbers. We know that Harden had a profound impact on the Thunder's effectiveness every time he stepped onto the floor, and his departure may well knock Oklahoma City out of the championship conversation. According to NBA.com/stats, the Thunder outscored opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions last season with Harden on the floor; the figure dropped to 3.1 points when he sat. Of course, some of Harden's efficiency was tethered to the attention drawn by Kevin Durant and Westbrook.

    But consider this: Durant and Harden shared the floor for 1,420 minutes last season. Harden played without him for 526 minutes. He averaged 16.6 points per 40 minutes with Durant, and a whopping 34.7 points without him. His true shooting percentage was also better without Durant, jumping from .641 to .686. Harden became much more aggressive off the dribble with Durant out, with his free throw attempts leaping from five per 40 minutes to more than 13. The difference in Harden's numbers with and without Westbrook track closely to those with and without Durant.

    Now, those numbers are likely exaggerated by quality of opposition. Harden tended to take the court without either Durant or Westbrook beside him only when the other team was playing its second unit. Still, it seems clear that Harden is more than capable of become of the NBA's most efficient volume scorers.

    Does that make Harden a franchise centerpiece, the potential top player on a championship team? It's possible, but most likely it seems like he's more apt to become a No. 2 because of limitations in playmaking and on the defensive end, where he is merely adequate. So again, there is still work for to do for Morey. However, it's hard not to be excited if you're a Rockets fan. After last season ended, it was difficult to imagine a path that would lead to the Rockets' next window of contention. After Saturday's trade, that path is now well-lit.
     
  18. Scarface281

    Scarface281 Member

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    Rockets can offer him way more than that. It is no
     
  19. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Yes, it's a risk, but not as big a risk now as waiting to get lucky with the lottery in the next few seasons. This isn't early to mid-'80's, when our luck was riding high, and you flipped a coin, as you know. If this was the last couple of years, what you're saying would make more sense, IMO. That's when we should have tanked. Who knows, maybe our luck would have been with us. Now? How can we pass up getting a player of Harden's proven ability for the price Morey paid? For a crap shoot that we suck hard this season and get lucky, or that we get lucky with the Toronto pick, or the Dallas pick down the road? Assuming Harden gives us a much better record, and hurts our lottery chances this summer, we're supposed to pass on this deal? I just don't buy it. This was a great move, and we still have our own pick for next summer if we suck hard regardless of how well Harden plays, and who knows... we might. I'll take this deal everyday of the week, and twice on Sunday.
     
  20. tefunk

    tefunk Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Say goodbye to The Beard! <a href="http://t.co/lhooGwT8" title="http://twitter.com/CarlaNWade/status/262603306289995776/photo/1">twitter.com/CarlaNWade/sta…</a></p>&mdash; Carla N. Wade (@CarlaNWade) <a href="https://twitter.com/CarlaNWade/status/262603306289995776" data-datetime="2012-10-28T17:14:42+00:00">October 28, 2012</a></blockquote>
    <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     

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