Bill Simmons and some other guy did their yearly over-under picks for the NBA. He had the Rockets WAY under 29.5 wins for the season. It was one of their so-called "locks." Highlights: -they are worried that Lin is still injured -liked all 3 picks this year, specifically T-Jones -didn't like the Lowry trade -Livingston is the backup? Rockets discussion begins at ~16:45 Link: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=8549213 or http://www.grantland.com/podcasts
Bill Simmons: Rockets will win way under 29.5 games http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=8549213 Go to the 16:30-ish mark. Bill Simmons and his friend Joe House go through Vegas odds for each team and guess whether they'll be under or over their Vegas expected win total. Both guys agree that the Rockets are a lock to be way under 29.5 games for various reasons-- worries about Lin's knee, possible liquidation sale if the team isn't doing well, team too young. Thoughts?
My thought is to read over the front page before posting new topics. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=227795
Well they're forgetting Asik, Parsons and Kmart, three guys who should assure us of at least the 9th spot if both guys are healthy. Personally, I think they're good enough to get us the 14th pick, and if one of the young guys develop then we're probably be playoff bound once again.
Liquidate who? Dumbest thing I've heard in a while. Asik and Lin aren't going anywhere. Kmart and Delfino are trade candidates, but everyone knows that. The liquidation already happened. That's why these guys are journalists.
The podcast didn't say much about the Rox. They seemed to have just looked at how young and inexperienced the roster is and dismissed it on those grounds alone. One posed a rhetorical question that was something like "Do I really need to read out the roster?" There's some nutty stat about how the total season minutes of the players that are carried over from the previous year's roster is the fewest in NBA history -- something like that. I didn't hear anything about how it stacks historically in terms of the age/experience of the players, but it's probably up there.
We missed the playoffs with this lineup: Dalembert Scola Parsons Kmart Lowry/Dragic We downgraded on every position, there is no way we will be contending fro the 9th spot (anyway I thought the point of this season was to tank).
Downgrade on every position? I don't think so. Asik > Dalembert 12-13 Parsons > 11-12 Parsons 12-13 Kmart > 11-12 Kmart Lowry, Dragic and Lin are similar level players. The problem is the bench.
If I were a betting man, I would stay away from the Rockets as far as possible. There are simply too many variables that may affect their success. From an upside standpoint, this is definitely a .500 ballclub. But the downside is scary low. Perhaps even 20ish games. Asik's health/stamina, Lin's true level for an entire season, how long KMart stays around, how quickly our rookies develop, these are things no one can predict. I don't agree that it's a lock that we're under 30 wins. I think there's just a good a chance we actually be competitive.
I agree on parsons and asik, time will only tell with Kmart. Lin has potential to be better than Lowry or dragic...but he seems inconsistent. Both Lowry and dragic are easily top 15 PGs in my opinion. I really wish we had kept dragic but that's in the past now. What Lin did during the streak doesn't just randomly happen unless you have skills, I believe he has the skills and more importantly the work ethic to become somewhat of a meaningful player. Hopefully we are right!
If you look at the bright side. Andrew wiggins has declared reclassification for 2013 today! The odds have increased!!
I'm taking the under too. Still, I think the concerns mentioned -- trading Martin, Lin's health, etc -- would all be baked into the price. It just still seems too high to me though.
This isn't big news really. Across the media landscape, the range of wins for Houston has been somewhere between 25-30. Hollinger picked 27. I'm definitely taking the under on 29.5 wins. It might not end up being THAT much lower but definitely lower than 29 or 30.
Asik/Motiejunas = Camby/Dalembert Patterson/Jones <<<<< Scola/Patterson Parsons/Delfino > Parsons/Budinger Martin/Lamb < Martin/Lee Lin/Livingston?/Machado?/Fortson? <<<<<<<<<< Lowry/Dragic The biggest benefit this roster seems to have that the last one didn't is that our centers probably won't be injured as much. Otherwise, we got a slight upgrade at our weakest position, and downgraded everything else.
I don't get the liquidation part...unless he simply means Martin, which I anticipate will happen regardless.
Not sure Id go to Vegas with those odds, but I dont see them getting past 35 wins unless they make a significant aquisition through trade. The key between 25 and 35 wins is the performance of the backcourt. I think Martin is due for a very, very good year, but injuries happen, and we still dont know what's going to happen with him in the trade wins. If he's traded its going to seriously affect the Rockets offensive gameplan. Lin having a quality impact wont affect the Rockets in the win loss column as much as Martin will IMO, but I still think he's going to have a quality year once he gets going. Even if he has a tough time scoring, he's going to be a quality PG running the offense, and setting up his teamates. Despite that opinion, I do not think he's going to win games on his own here in Houston. So given the backcourt situation (health, impending K-Mart trades) saying 29 games isn't a huge stretch. -As for Bill's "fire sale" comment, Im not buying that other than the K-Mart trade, and maybe a minor move like sending out someone like Douglas, Forbes, etc. for D-leaguers. Everyone else seems like they are in the Rockets long term plans to build around. Getting rid of them this season wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.
