There is no history that suggests that this is true. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/
Of course that same article also says: [rquoter]That's not to say Mr. Romney has no problems when it comes to relating. In The Washington Times/Zogby Poll released over the weekend, Mr. Romney trails Mr. Obama and even his own running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, when voters were asked who is the most likable person on the Democratic and Republican tickets. Indeed, Mr. Obama nearly doubled Mr. Romney's rating, 40 percent to 22 percent. Mr. Ryan was rated "most likable" by 23 percent, and only 10 percent said that honor went to Vice President Joseph R. Biden. The problem extends to the candidates' wives, too. The Times/Zogby Poll found voters preferred Michelle Obama as first lady over Ann Romney, 36 percent to 26 percent. Another 17 percent said both were equally suited, while the rest weren't sure either made a good first lady. [/rquoter]
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I think the fact that Obama has bagged significantly more early ballots than Romney is going to be important. People can talk about "likely voters" modeling all they want, but the votes that already went in are the only ones with 100% likelihood to vote. Even if a voter has already decided to support a candidate over another, there is always a chance that they decide on the morning of Nov. 6 to not bother with standing in line to vote for whatever reason.
Romney/Ryan rally starting now at Red Rocks in CO http://www.cnn.com/video/?/tab/live#/video/cvplive/cvpstream1 Kid Rock warming up the crowd
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/PzZ4i8aWs_s" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
no, George Mason University Carolina Transparency has an awesome early voting tracker for NC http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/
Why is Mitt Romney afraid to stand up for our veterans? He couldn't be bothered to mention them, or the war still being fought in Afghanistan, during his convention speech. You know, when he accepted the freakin' GOP nomination on national TV. And he failed to mention them during last night's hour and a half debate. Yet the President did, several times. What is Mitt Romney afraid of? Is he simply that shallow? That self-absorbed? Unreal. They are standing up for America, Governor. You should stand up for them.
Mitt Romney's ad For Richard Mourdock <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/PVXKYw_r5ZY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
