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The Third Presidential Debate

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Deckard, Oct 17, 2012.

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SamFisher Member

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bobmarley said: ↑

Trends are more important then single polls and the trend is Romney up, big at first after the first debate and a little slower after the last two debates, but still up.
Click to expand...

He's actually been slipping back down for the last 12 days. The truth shall set you free- Austin 3:16

#421 SamFisher, Oct 23, 2012

bobmarley Member

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Air Langhi said: ↑

Alright lets suppose 3% of the independents are really republicans, and 67% of all undecided independents vote for mitt. Also lets suppose all 1% of undecided democrats vote for mitt.

So we have
Democrats: 43%
Republicans: 41%
Independents: 17%

Votes For
Obama: Democrats: .9(.43) = .387 Republicans: .09*(.41) = 0.0369 Independents: .17(.46+.18(1/3)) = 0.0884
Romney Democrats: .09(.43) = 0.0387 Rep: .91*(.41) = 0.3731 Ind: .17(.36 + (2/3)*.18) = 0.0816

So we end with Obama: 51.23% and Romney with 49.77%. I am obviously giving some huge advantages to Romney and Romney still isn't coming out ahead.

Suppose I made it so it was
40% dems
40% republican
20% independents

and gave mitt a split of 60/40 of independent undecided voters Romney would lose.

I don't know who is going to win, but the numbers from the poll you posted don't support your own candidate.
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These are polling number for who won the debate last night. I am not debating that Obama won the debate points. What I am telling you the other numbers that the poll shows are heavily in favor of Romney.

#422 bobmarley, Oct 23, 2012
mc mark Member

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jopatmc said: ↑

Did he win the last 2 debates well enough to reverse the momentum and the polls and get back on top of this race?

If the answer is no, then Obama lost the debates. I keep saying, you're dealing in minutia. But on election day, the results will speak for themselves. Romney was down coming into the first debate. Is he down leaving the debates or is he up?
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All tracking has Obama trending up after the initial hit of the first debate.

#423 mc mark, Oct 23, 2012
bobmarley Member

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rimrocker said: ↑

My apologies. When you said this...

I should have realized by "America" you really meant "our Allies in Europe."

So, the question changes slightly. Do you think the Iranian Navy is a threat to our allies in Europe?

And by the way, I found this curious:

I don't know much about navy ships, but I would imagine that the only one of those ways that would work would be through the Suez Canal. That, or transport them across land, through Iraq, to Syria. That would be a loooong portage.

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An attack on an American Allie is an attack on America.

Yes, nuclear weapons are a danger to our Allies and the rest of the world.

If Iran gets into Syria they can use boats to carry warheads to other countries. Terrorists don't use a Navy they get the weapon to its target however they can, including suicide bombers.

#424 bobmarley, Oct 23, 2012
bobmarley Member

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SamFisher said: ↑

He's actually been slipping back down for the last 12 days. The truth shall set you free- Austin 3:16
Click to expand...

It looks like your polling binder has no numbers in it.

#425 bobmarley, Oct 23, 2012
Air Langhi Contributing Member

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bobmarley said: ↑

These are polling number for who won the debate last night. I am not debating that Obama won the debate points. What I am telling you the other numbers that the poll shows are heavily in favor of Romney.
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Those numbers are based on who they would vote for based on that poll. There were a whole set of different numbers for who won the debate. If you believe Romney is that sure of a lock take some money you have and bet on romney he is a 2-1 underdog. You can get a 200% return in 3 week period.

#426 Air Langhi, Oct 23, 2012
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bobmarley said: ↑

It looks like your polling binder has no numbers in it.
Click to expand...

#427 mc mark, Oct 23, 2012

mc mark Member

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Mr Obama wins with "Walmart Moms" and undecideds.

Walmart Moms Give Obama the Edge in Debate

President Obama scored a decisive win with the swing voters known as the Walmart moms participating in a focus group during Monday night’s presidential debate on foreign policy.

#428 mc mark, Oct 23, 2012
bobmarley Member

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mc mark said: ↑

Mr Obama wins with "Walmart Moms" and undecideds.

Walmart Moms Give Obama the Edge in Debate

President Obama scored a decisive win with the swing voters known as the Walmart moms participating in a focus group during Monday night’s presidential debate on foreign policy.
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Of the 20 Walmart moms — defined as women voters with children under age 18 who have shopped at the retail chain at least once in the last month — six came into the debate undecided, while seven were leaning toward Obama and seven were leaning toward Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

After the debate, four of the women remained undecided, two went decisively to Romney and three said they will support Obama. Five leaned toward Romney and six leaned toward Obama. During a discussion, eight said Obama had won the debate, while one gave Romney the edge.
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fuzzy math?

Before
6- U
7- O
7- R

After
4- U =-2
7- O +3(?)
7- R +2(?)

This is a dumb article

#429 bobmarley, Oct 23, 2012
jopatmc Member

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ROFL

Now we're down to Walmart moms.

#430 jopatmc, Oct 23, 2012
BigBenito Member

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bobmarley said: ↑

fuzzy math?

Before
6- U
7- O
7- R

After
4- U =-2
7- O +3(?)
7- R +2(?)

This is a dumb article
Click to expand...

4 U
2 definite R
3 definite O
5 lean R
6 lean O

#431 BigBenito, Oct 23, 2012
vlaurelio Member

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jopatmc said: ↑

ROFL

Now we're down to Walmart moms.
Click to expand...

#432 vlaurelio, Oct 23, 2012

1 person likes this.
jopatmc Member

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vlaurelio said: ↑

Click to expand...

and stale Dwight Howard derision.

#433 jopatmc, Oct 23, 2012

Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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jopatmc said: ↑

and stale Dwight Howard derision.
Click to expand...

#434 Rocketman95, Oct 23, 2012
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Congratulations, Mitt Romney. Now, get to work getting this country rolling again.
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I'd report for having a political signature, but you won't be around long enough for it to matter.

#435 BigBenito, Oct 23, 2012
jopatmc Member

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Rocketman95 said: ↑

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Dwight Howard and Walmart moms. The Obamites are getting desperate.

#436 jopatmc, Oct 23, 2012
jopatmc Member

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BigBenito said: ↑

I'd report for having a political signature, but you won't be around long enough for it to matter.
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Is it against the rules?

#437 jopatmc, Oct 23, 2012
BigBenito Member

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Yeah, the **** flinging is to stay in D&D. Using a political quote causes bleed over into the much more sane sections of these forum.

#438 BigBenito, Oct 23, 2012

SC1211 Member

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vlaurelio said: ↑

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Hahahaha repped.

#439 SC1211, Oct 23, 2012
jopatmc Member

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BigBenito said: ↑

Yeah, the **** flinging is to stay in D&D. Using a political quote causes bleed over into the much more sane sections of these forum.
Click to expand...

If Clutch deems it out of bounds, I'll remove it. I'm planning on being around a lot longer than the poor fella that made the deal with me.

#440 jopatmc, Oct 23, 2012

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