Rasmussen released their general election poll this morning Romney +4 The last three Ras polls go like this Obama +2 Romney +2 Romney +4 That is a 6 point trend since the beginning of the debates.
As opposed to Iranian vessels loaded with weapons designed to attack America steaming through the Sixth Fleet and across the Atlantic towards Myrtle Beach?
D+6? According to the poll 43% were democrat 37% were republican and 20% were independent. I am only considering the independent voters in which Obama has a 46-38-18 lead. So are you saying independent voters are lying or do you not understand conditional probability?
You really think Iranian vessels have a shot to go around Africa or to go through the Pacific. They either go through the Suez or through Syria and either way they go through Med Sea.
Trends are more important then single polls and the trend is Romney up, big at first after the first debate and a little slower after the last two debates, but still up.
I've got it at: Obama 277 Romney 261 Obama: OH, PA, IA, WI, MI, NM, NV Romney: FL, CO, VA, NC, NH This one comes down to the Big 10, and the Union/City turnouts.
Alright lets suppose 3% of the independents are really republicans, and 67% of all undecided independents vote for mitt. Also lets suppose all 1% of undecided democrats vote for mitt. So we have Democrats: 43% Republicans: 41% Independents: 17% Votes For Obama: Democrats: .9(.43) = .387 Republicans: .09*(.41) = 0.0369 Independents: .17(.46+.18(1/3)) = 0.0884 Romney Democrats: .09(.43) = 0.0387 Rep: .91*(.41) = 0.3731 Ind: .17(.36 + (2/3)*.18) = 0.0816 So we end with Obama: 51.23% and Romney with 49.77%. I am obviously giving some huge advantages to Romney and Romney still isn't coming out ahead. Suppose I made it so it was 40% dems 40% republican 20% independents and gave mitt a split of 60/40 of independent undecided voters Romney would lose. I don't know who is going to win, but the numbers from the poll you posted don't support your own candidate.
My apologies. When you said this... I should have realized by "America" you really meant "our Allies in Europe." So, the question changes slightly. Do you think the Iranian Navy is a threat to our allies in Europe? And by the way, I found this curious: I don't know much about navy ships, but I would imagine that the only one of those ways that would work would be through the Suez Canal. That, or transport them across land, through Iraq, to Syria. That would be a loooong portage.
