The Colorado study has been right 100% of the time. The 77% is their prediction that Romney wins the popular vote.
We learned about the fallacy of "x number of successful predictions in a row" in statistics class a few weeks ago.
As of 10/18/2012, Romney's margin in the Gallup poll has increased to a 7 point lead, 52-45: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx And for the first time, Romney has taken the lead in the RCP electoral college state poll average, 206-201: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Obama's lead in that same Gallup poll initially increased after the first debate. I guess you don't understand the concept of a 7 day tracking poll. I'm sure there's a high school student somewhere who can explain this concept to you, if this proves to difficult. Regards.
Gallup is over sampling the South. Right now Romney is out polling Obama by +22 points in the south. In the west Obama is ahead +6, in the East Obama is ahead +4 and in the mid-west Obama is ahead +4 He's winning 3/4ths of the country.
Well, yes, they're using different methodology that was lacking a month ago. To be clear, i don't think romney is up 7, or that he's going to take CT or NJ. But he is ahead, and will win. I've beend predicting the latter for some time, even when the polls suggested otherwise.
They use pretty arbitrary cut-off # to call states "leaning" vs. "toss-up". Obama is +5.0 in Pennsylvania (and +4.2 in Michigan), that's a "toss-up". Romney +5.3 in Arizona (and +5.6 in North Carolina) are "leaning". Call Az a toss-up and it's Obama by 6. Alternatively, call Penn "leaning" and it's Obama by 15. It's all where they (arbitrarily) choose to draw their distinction. At this stage, I wouldn't call any of those states a coin flip. They've all got a pretty solid lean.
Why are mojo and basso not agreein to a bet, even if they collectively agree that Romney will clearly win?
I mean jopatmc at least has the balls to do a "loser leaves CF.net forever" bet, but you guys are all talk.
the problem is you just invent a new identity and come back. General Skandar Akbar didn't leave the city of Houston forever after Hacksaw beat One man Gang back in the 80's.
Why do you give a ****? Stop coming into D&D threads and trying to bully people into betting with you. It's immature.
This was my first post about it...and read your posts before deciding who's immature or narrow-minded.
