i don't think it's fair to say that everyone is so confident. i think i'm the only one that has expressed no doubt. i will not hold my horses, i'm calling it now.
I think it stems, in large part, from how static the race has been. 3-4 points a decade ago would be nothing. But nothing in this race has moved the margin by 3-4 points, except maybe the Democratic convention for a few days. Mitt's Libya response, as horrid as it was, didn't move the needle one bit. Basically, everyone's already made up their minds, so a 3-4 point move requires a major change in the race. Mitt was right about one part of his fundraiser comments - about 47% of voters are going to pick Obama no matter what; and 47% are going to pick Romney. All very true. But a whole bunch of them need to flip for Obama to lose.
Things can indeed flip, but the probability of such a flip is not all that good. Nate Silver's model and Intrade estimate the chance at 25-30% and I think it is fair enough an estimate. It is sort of like being down by 4 point in the NBA with 1:30 in the NBA. You still have your chances, but you need to play mistake free baketball, have some pretty good luck, and maybe try a couple of risky gambles. In other words, this is not some BS deficit and there is a good reason why the Romney camp is kind of a cluster-**** right now (according to an insider quoted by NY Times).
From my standpoint, I've completely lost confidence in Romney's campaign. Not only is the candidate very hard for people to like and relate to, his operation seems to be in shambles. The notion of a shift big enough to propel him into the lead is a pipe-dream. I say this fully aware of how weak Obama is. It will take a catastrophic negative against Obama, which isn't likely this late in the game.
About Mitt's money advantage: I wonder how much it matters now. I think both camps have enough $ left to bomb the airwaves at saturation level. The extra Romney ads to be aired may well be at a point of severely diminishing returns or may even be counterproductive as folks get tired of seeing them. Also, being the actual POTUS gives Obama lots of free air time, both in news coverage (some will be positive, some negative) and in things like the Letterman show.
what is he gonna make an ad about? better for him he does nothing lest he screw up even more. i want him to at least make to the debates before he melts down.
I did too. Now you get ten free stories per month before they make you buy a NYT subscription. But if you just go to the page and don't click on a story, you can check the forecast model for free.
I don't share your confidence in Romney getting 47% of the popular vote as he seems to dig himself a new hole or deepen an existing one daily, but the popular vote while interesting is rather immaterial. Look at what's been happening in VA and WI. Not to mention Romney already pulling out of MI and PA. Obama is almost a lock in VA right now as he hasn't had a losing poll there of any sort over the last month. Even Kaine went from a tie to a clear lead for Senate there in recent weeks. VA's blue now. And two polls out of WI today, which had actually really become a battleground toss-up state, show O up 10 and 14. Colorado frightens me a little. Ohio does too. And though Obama has been leading in FL, I'd given it up before Romney's idiotic entitlement bashing the other day -- I think you have to favor Obama there now even though he doesn't need it to win. But if VA and WI hold, Romney would need to run the table on every other battleground state, almost every one of which has Obama favored even if it's by less than a percentage point in some of them. And Romney's not about to run any table unless Obama declares Sharia Law.
Ohio doesn't frighten me as much with Romney as it might with a different GOP candidate. Ohio feels the pain of Romney's stance against the auto bailout a great deal, and that's going to be an anchor for Romney there.
Interesting info. Every major party Presidential candidate since 1988 has managed to convince a majority if voters to have a favorable opinion of him. This includes Dukakis, W, Bob Dole, GHWB, Clinton, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Obama. Except for one.
i don't think any of you are understanding the ineptitude. take a look at his calendar. why isn't he in the swing states talking to folks. TIRELESSLY. he is scared to death to **** up again. instead he goes to fundraisers, his comfort zone, for even more money that won't help him. he's barking up every wrong tree and spending lots of time preparing for the "debates." he is terrified of the debates. the more time he spends preparing the scarier it's gonna be for him when he's under the bright lights with a shark. obama is gonna calmy challenge his integrity, his honesty, his ridiculous "gaffes" and he will break him.
Just in terms of personal like-ability, among liberals I get the sense that on a personal level, Romney is viewed even less favorably than Dubya nowadays (Cheney's probably a different story). You couldn't have said that about McCain in 2008 (and these days he might even be more popular among liberals than he is with conservatives). Though I guess Gingrich and Santorum would have been even bigger disasters in that regard.
Wait? Seriously? Romney hasn't done a public campaign event in 5 days? gary I think you might be right. Romney: Obama 'cares' about struggling Americans but can’t 'help' them MIAMI—In his first public campaign event in five days, Mitt Romney made a spirited appeal to Hispanic voters, arguing President Barack Obama cares about the American people but doesn't know how to fix the country's problems.
Dude clearly thinks pouring money onto a problem can solve everything...typical assbag manager mentality.
Um, it's the only thing that will solve America's biggest problems. Are you forgetting the trillions upon trillions of dollars we have as debt?
I think one turning point in the election was in July when Obama Inc. unleashed bazooka shells on Romney and he didn't respond in kind with equal or greater fire. IMO, that was a missed opportunity Romney hasn't recovered from. You could also argue it showed Team Romney wasn't up to the task of a bloody fight on the big stage. John Kerry had the same problem. One of the things I remember very clearly from 1992 was how Clinton's people basically sat with their fingers on the trigger and and blasted back hard at George H.W. Bush every time he went negative. They weren't about to let his attacks define Clinton to the public. Romney allowed himself to get bloodied up so much he couldn't clean it off. When you add in his recent gaffes, Romney's image is a sorry caricature to many people. It's too late and he has no cred to change that perception. In a presidential boxing match, you have to counter-punch quickly, decisively and viciously. Just like Kerry, Romney failed to do so and all the kings horses and all the kings men (i.e, a bazillion dollars in ads the next 6 weeks) can't put him back together again. The money will help narrow the gap though.
