they can put up their dukes, but they need 1,000 people behind them to do it. Just in case they get their butt handed too them on a silver platter, they got back up.
I'm not denying the benefits to the Japanese, but I'm merely stating that for China, the loss of Diaoyu/senkaku is hardly a blip on the radar while a fairly nice boon for the Japanese. So in that sense, it should be irrelevant for the Chinese when we should be concentrating on developing the interior. Unfortunately we like to hoard things for ourselves... One of the biggest Chinese tour groups cancelled all their Japanese tours for the summer and I think the Chinese Tourism Board or whatever said that there will be a 10-20% drop in tourism this winter. I think there's a bloomberg article somewhere that said that...
The PRC has for the last few years been stoking nationalism to increase support of the CCP domestically and also to draw Taiwan closer to the PRC. The Diaoyu Islands are one of the issues that unite all Chinese and people in Taiwan and Hong Kong (even when it was still under the British) have protested Japan's claim to them. So the issue of the islands isn't just about territory, fishing and mineral rights but deals with nationalism and history. I feel pretty confidant that there will not be a war over these and eventually both countries will come to a settlement, or just leave it as a lingering minor sore point. There is though reasons on both sides why these islands are brought up as an issue. On a related tangent Japan also has a long running dispute with S. Korea over the Liancourt Rocks. IN that case the Koreans occupy those rocks and has led to diplomatic tension and protests.
I agree this is paranoid, hateful and very unlikely. While these islands are an issue of protests, trade and diplomatic tensions as I noted it is very very unlikely war will break out. Both countries have too many ties right now that war would greatly harm each other, not forgetting that the PRC doesn't really have a navy good enough yet to fight a major naval engagement.
I think the Diaoyus are much more than a blip on the radar for the PRC in terms of the fishing and mineral rights that are around them. Further since the PRC is also tied up in disputes regarding the Spratlys these type of maritime rights are very important. Also it would be a huge blow for nationalism to just give up on the Diaoyus and even if the PRC did Taiwan might not and the PRC couldn't afford to look like its capitulating to the Japanese if they want Taiwan to reunify. All of that said I firmly believe there will be no war over these islands.
Well, don't have a link in English, but apparently about 1000 Chinese fishing boats are heading towards the islands.
That is a wrong assessment of the siutation. The higher ups in China are pretty much in agreement that a localized battle could just be inevitable if Japan doesn't back down. The rational ones in China are much in that direction now too. The difference is just timing and the extent of force to be used. There is no doubt China will cross that line if Japan doesn't back down. Now, I think the ball is in Japan's court and I don't believe Japan would get into a fight with China right now. If Japan listens carefully, the official line of China is to have Japan recognize the island is a dispute and Japan should go back to the status quo prior to March when Japan's plan to nationalize the island was announced. Not much really. So, IMO, Japan is the agressor in this instance and it has a decision to make. I actually doubt Japan will risk a fight with China at this point given China is unrelenting and demand is relatively speaking pretty mild.
Well, there is one line of thinking, confined pretty much within the hawks of CCP, that Daiyu is the place and time to display China's military prowess to establish power in the region. The vision is a strategic one and I think it is very dangerous, but given the outburst of irrations over this issue throughout the country, this line of thinking in various broadcast forms and voices are getting traction. To the hardliners, China needs to act like a regional power and settle once for all that it is a regional power now. Kill the chicken for the monkeys.
Taiwan is actually more determined to use force if the Japanese do not back down. The Taiwanese are saying to land on the island to assert sovereignty with their naval force. I wonder how the Japanese will respond to it. Will the Japanese open fire at the Taiwanese naval force? It is going to be interesting.
Did not know about that, is that the official government stance? China and Taiwan joint naval task force would be very interesting.
^^^ Right, the fact that China, Taiwan and Hongkon are all having the same position on this issue should give Japan a serious pause. Given the vast difference in political forms, education, etc among the three, the staunch position taken by all three is much beyond ideological bias Japan would like to think of it as. There is no reason for Japan to cross that line.
China is hiding its domestic problems by diverting its own people attention to these rocks, same as the Spratly and Paracels islands.
Not only that. The protests could be a channel for expressing anger towards the system. The leadership in China has to be extremely careful. How did the May Fourth movment get started in the first place? It's a doubl-edged sword. So far Beijing has been playing this fire as chips against Japan, but I predict a curb on the protests will soon follow.
Now here is food for thoughts ... Imagine China got into the fight wiht Japan and couldn't control the island. Then what? It is not a foregone conclusion China would necessarily kick Japan should there be a fight. I wish the cooler heads in Beijing would plan for that possibility, or maybe not because that scenario would probably shake China to the core.
I think China is betting on the US not joining the fight, I would say that is a reasonable assumption given the current situation in the US. Without help from the US, I think China have a high probability of winning a minor show down, but nothing is ever 100%. the chance of a showdown is remote, I say less than 1 percent chance.
This has been always the same way to discount the will and the sound of Chinese people. I found it very disrespectful and self-serving (not sure about the word but it is for inventing some groundless statements to support his hidden biased view.) Bottom line, 1.4 billion Chinese are smart and have experienced way more losses, disasters, wars, conflicts, revolutions, problems in their 5000 years history than any other nation. Their attention is not something that anyone can divert or disrespect.
