Seems like Lin continues to be a polarizing figure. Hopefully he will be the best newcomer. Best - http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8296725/2012-nba-summer-forecast-best-newcomer Worst - http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8298137/2012-nba-summer-forecast-worst-newcomer
I think Lin has a contract that puts fairly high expectations on him. But, it's nothing compared to expectations on Joe Johnson with all the money he's owed and the fact that his acquisition meant the Nets giving up on Dwight Howard. So, to overcome even modest underperformance by Joe Johnson, Lin would have to completely crash and burn.
Lin is going to get paid about $8 million per season for the next 3. That's about what Mike Conley and Jameer Nelson are getting. I think it's more likely that Lin outperforms his deal.
Mike Conley did start to come into his own in the playoffs though, the guy is a fantastic defender, maybe only behind Rondo at the point guard position. Not saying Lin won't be as good or better though but Conley had a full season last year of fantastic play compared to one month of Linsanity..
I'd hardly call any of Conley's five pro seasons "fantastic." He's a solid player, but his production is about what you expect from a guy with his salary. And Conley signed a 5 year, $40 million extension coming off a year where he averaged 12 ppg and 5 apg. I don't remember hearing any outrage over that deal. Lin may have only started 26 games, but his performance in those 26 games (which were his first 26 starts) is something that has been matched by very few players. To assume he won't or can't improve on isn't logical or rational.
Conley's contract extension was signed after the 09/10 season, before the Grizzlies had ever made the playoffs or displayed a high level of defensive aptitude on his watch. He did live up to that contract. However, the contract was NOT given on the basis of playoff performance, because there was none.
I'd say Conley and Nelson are both overpaid. They signed deals when they were showing promise and their teams expected them to blossom. They are a rhetorical blessing for Lin boosters because they're both serviceable players and just modestly overpaid. They should be paid somethimg more like midlevel -- as Lin should be. You can assume Lin will improve on last season, but you can see in the cases of Conley and Nelson that expectations are sometimes disappointed. Even so, if Lin manages to be as serviceable as Conley and Nelson, I'll be begrudgingly satisfied.