[ESPN] Rookie of the year predictions

NL Rocket · Aug 22, 2012

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8291173/2012-nba-summer-forecast-rookie-year

No Rocket player in sight though I think the award is Davis's to lose.

Anyone with espn insider who could post the ROY contenders by Thorpe and or Rising rooks articles?

Thank you

ashiin · Aug 22, 2012

I mean I can agree with those top 5, but our rookies have a good shot at it too if given the opportunity.

cjtaylorpt · Aug 22, 2012

Lamb, to me, has the perfect style that gets noticed on a nightly basis and has enough substance in his game to produce numbers that would back up his game giving him a shot to be a top 3 candidate this year.

supdudes · Aug 22, 2012

Barnes...

srsly, there's that much potential.

Air Langhi · Aug 22, 2012

Donatas Motiejunas got a vote

List is:
1. Davis
2. Lillard
3. MKG
4. Barnes
4. Beals
4. Jonas

Also receiving votes: Donatas Motiejunas, Rockets (1), Austin Rivers, Hornets (1), Thomas Robinson, Kings (1), Jared Sullinger, Celtics (1), Marquis Teague, Bulls (1)

Firebomb525 · Aug 22, 2012

Jonas seems kind of a surprising vote to me; could easily be swapped out with Motiejunas.

But I agree with the other picks. Though, I think Lamb should be ranked up there higher. Like tied with Lilliard or below him.

da_juice · Aug 22, 2012

Davis gets it- he's the most NBA ready and defensive big man are at a rarity.

Dreamin · Aug 23, 2012

Teague and Sullinger got a vote? WOW

LCAhmed · Aug 23, 2012

Dreamin said: ↑

Teague and Sullinger got a vote? WOW
Click to expand...

Right?!

DonatasFanboy · Aug 23, 2012

Dreamin said: ↑

Teague and Sullinger got a vote? WOW
Click to expand...

Teague will have a shot with Rose out.
Sullinger should get good minutes too.
Maybe 20-25 minutes both.
Both teams could end up winning 50 games, Celtics might get 55+.
Role playing rookies from good teams get votes. See Leonard, Kawhi. And Faried, Kenneth.

DonatasFanboy · Aug 23, 2012

Firebomb525 said: ↑

Jonas seems kind of a surprising vote to me; could easily be swapped out with Motiejunas.
Click to expand...

I bet all those 'tied for 4th' guys got 2 votes apiece.

NL Rocket · Aug 23, 2012

Nobody with ESPN insider?

Here's what the rookies think, again no love for the Rockets fellow draftees, only Royce White mentioned.

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/john_schuhmann/08/23/2012-nba-rookie-survey?ls=iref:nbahpt1

redhotrox · Aug 23, 2012

NL Rocket said: ↑

Nobody with ESPN insider?
Click to expand...

Breaking Down ROY Candidates

ESPN.com's Summer Forecast poll of experts recently suggested NBA Rookie of the Year voting will come down to the following three players: the New Orleans Hornets' Anthony Davis, the Portland Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard and the Charlotte Bobcats' Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

As individuals, each of these guys had college seasons ranging from good to fantastic last season. They all have significant upside, but will be expected to contribute pretty quickly so none of them should be considered a "project" at all like the Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond is.

All three guys can play and will put up numbers, as they proved that to some degree during the NBA summer leagues. So how accurate will the Summer Forecast be?

When deliberating on how to vote for an MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc., the play of the individual must be considered in context with the success of his team. If this trio of players all post similar PER scores and overall game productivity, their teams' success will carry more weight, which gives a guy like Lillard an advantage. However, if a player produces far more than any other rookie, then he'll win even if he shines for a horrible team, which is what could happen to Kidd-Gilchrist. Davis is indeed the favorite, but he isn't a lock.

Here's a look at why the NBA Rookie of the Year Award will or will not go to Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist or Lillard and what might have been missing from their games to prevent them from taking home the hardware at the end of the 2012-13 season.

Anthony Davis, PF/C
Why he could win: To be sure, Davis has the potential to be a dominating defensive player. But to expect that to happen in his first year is ludicrous. Davis will benefit from playing for a team that will focus heavily on defense, which will maximize his strengths and protect him from foul trouble. That would not be the case if he were playing for a great many other teams in the league. If Davis winds up in the league's top 10 in blocked shots, while playing on a top 10-15 defensive team, of course he'll also be considered for All-Defense teams. That nod alone would earn him a slew of ROY votes.

Anything he does on offense would be gravy. His athleticism and hands alone should garner him plenty of opportunities to score, as well as "SportsCenter" highlights (think Blake Griffin), and his shot selection should ensure a strong field goal percentage.

Why he doesn't win: There seems little chance that Davis won't play a lot this season, based on the lack of competition at both of his positions. But losing minutes to foul trouble is a real possibility. Opposing teams will attack him in the post, trying to both nullify his effectiveness as a helpside shot-blocker as well as to entice him to foul -- especially when they sense he is tired.

College players often use their hands more on defense than professionals because of the way games are officiated, and this issue could bother Davis for some time. Another factor to consider is the fatigue factor most No. 1 picks eventually suffer, due in part to the many extra hours they must dedicate to media, charity appearances, etc. Don't kid yourself -- Davis also could easily be a slam dunk contest participant during All-Star Weekend, adding even more to his schedule. When one considers how busy his summer was, how little recovery time he has before training camp, as well as his thin physique, it's easy to envision Davis starting out great but limping home by the end of the season.

Damian Lillard, PG
Why he could win: Lillard showed us all during the Las Vegas summer league games that he is among the most talented point guards to enter the league in the past five seasons. He is even more polished than Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook when they first arrived in the NBA, yet more explosive than most any other of the previous rookie point guards that we have seen.

If he gets the green light to make plays, like John Wall, Westbrook, Rose and Kyrie Irving, then undoubtedly we'll see a great number of stellar scoring and passing nights from Lillard. Next to a post presence like LaMarcus Aldridge and veterans like Nicolas Batum and Wes Matthews, Lillard will be able to generate offense through his teammates more than most rookies will be given the chance to. This means his chances at scoring more efficiently are strong. He has the potential to average 16 points and six assists per game with a steal or so thrown in there, too. And though he's not the shooter Irving is, with the weapons around him Lillard can get enough open looks from deep to possibly average better than 35 percent.

Why he doesn't win: The summer league is only a brief glimpse at what the NBA game will look like for these young players. Lillard destroyed the competition in Las Vegas, but having to deal with the plethora of All-Star point guards in the Western Conference such as Chris Paul,Steve Nash, Westbrook and Ty Lawson is obviously a far more difficult challenge. Sure, the same can be said for every rookie who must adjust to the NBA, but Lillard is the rare lottery pick who will likely play a lot this year and did not compete against the nation's best players twice a week in college.

If he struggles with consistency, it could very well be because of his inexperience at digging down deep to bring his best effort every night he plays. A struggling Portland team also could affect his overall play, just as the Wizards did Wall's performance two seasons ago. Wall ended up searching for his own offense most of the time, as the season winded down. Considering the talent Lillard will compete with for ROY, he'll need to have a strong season and not just a good first half.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F
Why he could win: Forget how bad the Bobcats might be again this season (it was not a fluke that they lost so often in 2011-12), and focus on just how good Kidd-Gilchrist is at playing his heart out. It's all he has ever done, and as we recently saw with Kenneth Fariedlast season, that carries much of the day in the NBA. Combine that with how interested teams are in defensive intensity on all parts of the floor as well as an increased focus on the transition game, and we see ample opportunities for Kidd-Gilchrist to flirt with 20 points and 10 rebounds in certain games and perhaps some triple-doubles, too.

Kidd-Gilchrist is comfortable filling the lane, but he's also keen on making the extra pass to get his team a simple bucket. Teams are also looking to go small at power forward more often, so Kidd-Gilchrist should see significant minutes matched up against bigger but slower opponents. But he possesses the power and strength to play with them, despite his youth. He's not going to average Tyreke Evans' rookie line of 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game, but 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists a game is certainly within reach. And that would be a powerful statement to voters.

Why he doesn't win: Gilchrist is many things, but nothing in Las Vegas suggested he's a good shooter. If he's not effective on the glass or in transition, he might struggle to score on many nights. Unlike Lillard, he's used to playing with a target on his chest against top players, so I don't see that as an issue.

But losing is contagious, and losing as often as Charlotte might this season can certainly be dispiriting. It's even possible that management/coaching does not challenge him to bring his amazing energy every night once the end of the season is near, as the race for the next lottery pick will be on. Kidd-Gilchrist without his special drive and tenacity in gear is simply not a special player, and he certainly would not be worthy of a ROY selection.
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#NBArank: Three rising rookies

Oftentimes, life is unfair for the NBA rookie.

The league's draft salary structure means that the best rookies are often underpaid for several years. Also, some rookies have to make sure their teammates are sufficiently fed with Krispy Kremes before every game (as was the case with 2003 rookie LeBron James). Additionally, they must pick up the tab when they dine with their Hall of Fame teammates.

And to top it all off, the media don't give them the respect they deserve.

How do I know?

Just look at the results of last offseason's #NBArank project. We underrated almost every single one of the rookies. Let's start with the most egregious oversight: Cleveland rookieKyrie Irving.

Before last season kicked off, 19-year-old Irving was considered the 140th-best player in the world according to ESPN.com's fleet of about 100 NBA junkies. We thought there were more than 100 players better than the No.1 overall pick. Irving ended up with the league's 23rd-best player efficiency rating, the most sparkling record in the clutch, and more All-Star votes than Joe Johnson. Yeah, Irving might be better than we thought.

Go up and down the 2011-12 #NBArank list and you'll see some air balls. Voters rankedHouston Rockets rookie Chandler Parsons (464th) and Sacramento Kings rookie Isaiah Thomas (460th) among the bottom 10 percent in the league. Iman Shumpert and Lavoy Allen started for NBA teams in the playoffs and were ranked 440th and 500th, respectively. (Yes, Allen was considered the worst player in the league last season.)

And that's just the beginning. In fact, 15 different 2011-12 rookies watched their #NBArank this preseason improve by over 100 slots compared to the last ballot. And that list doesn't include Josh Harrellson, who catapulted from 491st to 403rd over last season.

Here's more: 27 of the 30 first-round picks from the 2011 draft matched or improved their previous #NBArank in the new rankings. Only Jimmer Fredette, Cory Joseph and Chris Singleton failed to move up in the ranks. Looking even closer, we find out that, of the 27 first-rounders who improved, 19 did so by more than 50 slots.

It's true that rookies will generally improve from Year 1 to Year 2 as they increase their reps in the league. As such, it's not out of the question to see a collective bump in a new appraisal of the 2012 rookie class. But since we whiffed on most of the first-rounders, there's probably something more going on than an honest reflection of an NBA players' career arc.

When it comes to assessing rookies in the NBA, seeing is believing. We have trouble gauging the quality of individual rookies (and the class as a whole) simply because we haven't seen them perform on an NBA level. This is not unique to professional basketball. Asking NBA junkies to evaluate amateur prospects who often play overseas is akin to asking Roger Ebert to rate a film judging solely by the film's trailer -- if the trailer was in a different language. Things will inevitably get lost in translation.

This isn't just a one-year fluke. This observed anti-rookie bias has been quick-studied byBasketball Prospectus' Dan Feldman to show that rookies tend to make up a larger percentage of the league's best players than we think.

So which rookies have the best chance to massively outperform their #NBArank this season? Here are three:

Doron Lamb, Milwaukee Bucks
#NBArank: 387

Curious why the Milwaukee Bucks let the sweet-shooting Carlos Delfino walk in the offseason? Look who they picked at No. 42 in this year's draft. Lamb can shoot the lights out and projects to be one of the best shooters in this draft class, if not the best. How do we know? You can start with his 47 percent shooting from downtown last season for the Kentucky Wildcats, but the future looks brighter when you look deeper into his numbers.

According to sharp research from MIT Sloan conference presenter and stats guru Kirk Goldsberry, Lamb shot 50 percent from NBA 3-point distance, which was tops for the draft class. The Bucks will need his sharpshooting skill in their arsenal next season sinceMonta Ellis is a below-average shooter from downtown and Delfino left for Houston. If you need any more reason to like Lamb's potential, John Hollinger's Draft Rater liked Lamb's statistical blueprint enough to place him No. 20 on his draft board.

Mirza Teletovic, Brooklyn Nets
#NBArank: 415

Remember the name, folks. Brooklyn handed Teletovic a $10 million contract for good reason: He's a scoring machine. Following in the footsteps of nondrafted European players, Teletovic evidently hasn't received the hype that comes with the highlight reels on draft night. A 26-year-old power forward entering his basketball prime, Teletovic joins the Nets after being one of the top scorers in the Euroleague last season, averaging 21.7 points while shooting 43.1 percent from downtown for Vitoria.

Teletovic has proved he can score in bunches, but what he won't do is rebound or defend much. However, that probably won't hurt his chances at finding playing time in Brooklyn. A 6-foot-9 3-point shooter is a hot commodity in this league, making it even more bizarre that he wasn't ranked higher on #NBArank. He could be this year's Gustavo Ayon -- an established international player who made a big splash in his first campaign in the NBA.

Darius Johnson-Odom, Los Angeles Lakers
#NBArank: 456

The last name will be familiar to Lakers fans and there's a good chance his game will be familiar, too. As a hard-nosed, undersized guard with a shooting touch, Johnson-Odom may remind those in Lakerland of Derek Fisher, who has won five rings in Los Angeles. Of course, it's incredibly overzealous to expect Johnson-Odom to have an NBA career a fraction as successful as Fisher's, but there's a lot to like about Johnson-Odom's game -- and his environment.

If you plan to get some run next to the stars in Los Angeles, you better be able to shoot from the perimeter. Johnson-Odom shouldn't have a problem there. The Marquette product shot 40 percent from downtown in his three seasons in the collegiate ranks and led the Big East in scoring his senior year. If anything unforeseen happens to Kobe Bryant or Jodie Meeks next season, Johnson-Odom won't be unfamiliar for long.
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NL Rocket · Aug 23, 2012

redhotrox said: ↑

Breaking Down ROY Candidates

#NBArank: Three rising rookies

Click to expand...

Thanks a lot!

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